Nuclear strikes in Kyiv, a global digital war,
and an ultimate confrontation between Russia and NATO- what would happen if Ukraine won the war?
The initial Russian invasion of Ukraine met with a mixture of success and failure. Attacking from
four different axes, the thrust south out of Belarus towards Kyiv was meant to be a fatal
decapitation strike that ended the war in days. Yet this swift war-ending plan would
meet with one of the most catastrophic strategic failures of the post-World War II age. Logistics
completely mishandled, Ukrainian resistance and capabilities utterly underestimated,
and Russian troops and equipment revealed to be severely lacking in training, capability,
and even basic maintenance. The attack on Kyiv showed the world that the once feared Russian
army was a lumbering, hapless giant- doing as much harm to itself as to its enemies.
However, for all its failures in the north, the attack on southern Ukraine was much more
successful, and Russia achieved some of its finest operational successes in its drive
towards Kherson. Ukrainian forces were routed and forced to retreat time and again, and even
Ukrainian air power was successfully suppresed here, unlike other areas of the country where
slow, unstealthy Bayraktar drones destroyed very expensive and sophisticated air defense vehicles.
Yet for all its successes in the south, the Russian offensive came to a slow crawl at
the start of summer. Once it was clear that Ukraine would not fold in a matter of weeks,
the United States had already made plans to supply it with combat vehicles- including the
famous- or infamous, depending on which side of the new iron curtain you stand-
HIMARS system. Armed with long-range precision strike capabilities, now Ukraine could make
Russia really suffer by destroying ammo depots and command posts deep behind the front lines.
Inevitably the Russians were forced to put their logistical hubs further back out of HIMARs range,
which slowed the rate of resupply, slowing the entire Russian offensive.
By mid summer, the offensive was making daily gains measured in single-digit meters. By the end
of summer, the offensive was officially stalled out. Then Ukraine launched its counterattack,
retaking vast swathes of territory in the north and putting serious pressure on
Kherson, the only regional capital and major city Russia had managed to take. By November,
Kherson was liberated and the world was finally
asking the question- could Ukraine defeat Russia, and what would happen if it did?
First though, how could Ukraine defeat Russia?
Russia may be a corrupt, inept, and unsophisticated military fighting with 20th
century doctrine, but it’s still a significant threat to a nation like Ukraine. What Russia
lacks in modern equipment, training, food for its soldiers, blankets... literally everything,
it makes up for in sheer numbers. Yes, Russian conscripts may be sent to the
front lines with only 4 magazines of ammunition and having fired their weapon just one time,
but they are being sent there in droves. 300,000 have already been conscripted,
and with Russia enacting stop-loss measures to prevent people leaving
the military after their contract is up, and the bi-annual conscription drive,
Russian forces are set to remain significant in number for a very long time to come.
Quantity is a quality all its own, and while this would not matter against the forces of a
modern western military, Ukraine simply doesn't have the hardware and experience to deliver the
type of shock and awe warfare that saw vastly outnumbered US forces routinely defeat much
larger militaries in the last thirty years. To defeat Russia in the occupied territories,
Ukraine is going to have to send a lot of conscripts home in body
bags. Adding to the difficulties is the fact that Russia is now on the defensive,
which gives even their inexperienced and low morale conscripts a significant advantage.
The US and its European allies will have to continue to supply Ukraine with modern weapon
systems while providing financial support. The introduction of American weapons like
HIMARS and the HARM- or High Speed Anti-Radiation Missile- were absolute game changers for Ukraine.
HARM missiles have been and will continue to be of critical importance as Ukraine prepared
and then executed its counter offensive. While HIMARS allowed Ukraine to shape the
battlefield in preparatory operations, HARM is what allowed even unsophisticated Bayraktar
drones to operate in the southern territory, providing direct fire support to troops.
The US quickly identified HARM as a critical necessity for Ukraine early in spring,
but the problem was that American HARMs were configured to be carried and fired by western
planes. The US quickly set engineers on the problem who jerry-rigged a solution,
allowing American HARMs to 'talk' with Ukraine's MIGs. With that hurdle cleared, Ukrainian fighters
soon took to the skies to undertake Wild Weasel suppression of enemy air defense missions.
Russia worked hard to discredit HARM as an effective weapon. It spread disinformation
about HARM weapons locking onto microwaves in the Donbas, which if true would only make these
weapons even more terrifying not less, as the sensitivity required to detect, let alone target,
faint microwaves from hundreds of miles away is astronomical. But Russia's media campaign to
discredit the US and its weapons, and reassure its own civilians, was unraveled by the simple
observation that before HARM was in-theater, Ukraine's slow drones weren't operating anywhere
near the Kherson front. After HARM, Ukrainian drones were back to their favorite hobby of
blowing up Russian vehicles. That's good, because the poor things were probably horribly bored after
enjoying the absolute Disneyland that was blowing up the 40 mile long convoy outside of Kyiv.
With over two dozen HIMARS systems in Ukraine, and not one of them verified as destroyed yet,
Ukraine is going to need even more of not just HIMARS and HARM, but other modern weapon systems.
Without this critical force multiplier, even Ukraine's massive conscription effort- which
began at the start of the war and is now paying dividends in thousands of trained
soldiers per week- wont' be enough to win a true victory. Western powers know this too,
and there have been ongoing discussions about which modern systems can be sent to
Ukraine. The United States for instance is still training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-15 Eagle,
an extremely capable aircraft for the types of missions Ukraine needs fighters for. This
effort will take a very long time to complete though, meaning that Ukrainians flying American
F-15s won't be possible until at least next summer, as the training is simply too intensive.
The Abrams has also been identified as a possibility for sending to Ukraine. Back
in September, the US confirmed that Abrams tanks were “on the table” for Ukraine,
however to date not a single tank has been sent. Much like training pilots to fly the F-15,
training Ukrainian tank crews on the Abrams will take time. However, it's not just about training,
but also the fact that sending the M1 Abrams to Ukraine will require the creation of an
entire logistics chain to support the tank in battlefield conditions. This also takes time,
a lot of it, and a lot of money and personnel. So if the Abrams does make its debut in Ukraine,
this likely wouldn't happen until late next year. Leopard 2s, Grippen fighters, and more air defense
systems- Ukraine's wish list is long but absolutely necessary if it's to win over
Russia. At the moment, Ukraine is likely capable of pushing for a cease fire, and
indeed it seems as if Russia is even willing to negotiate a settlement. But victory for Ukraine,
as made very clear by both President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people, means taking back all
occupied territories- including Crimea. With Russian forces deeply entrenched in Crimea,
there's no chance of this happening without massive and ongoing Western support.
So what if Ukraine does win?
Ukraine's wishes to join the EU and NATO is what prompted this crisis to begin with. The
last thing that Vladimir Putin wanted to see on his watch is yet another neighbor coming
under the influence of western powers- so that's why he launched a war that ended up creating two
new NATO members. However, even in victory it's not certain that Ukraine would be fasttracked
into membership of both organizations. For one, a defeat of Russia in Ukraine, especially one
that saw Russia lose Crimea, would be of nearly unbearable national shame for the nation. Russia
is not the most logical or reasonable of actors, and the threat of it using nuclear weapons is
very real. Russia may simply decided to launch a nuclear attack on Ukraine if it moves directly
to NATO or EU ascension- a direct provocation to the west daring it to strike back at Russia with
its own nukes. This is very unlikely to happen for a nation that's not even 'in the club' yet.
Of course that's if Putin is still in power, as a total defeat in Ukraine would signal the end
of Putin's political career. While he has done a great job at eliminating rivals and consolidating
his power, the halls of the Kremlin are full of people eager to see Putin fall so they can take
over. Unfortunately, most of them are even worse than Putin and might be even more dangerous in
total defeat, not less. While someone like Dmitry Medvedev, former prime minister installed by Putin
during a 'break' in his presidential terms, could take power for themselves, he would be too weak
on his own and likely end up serving as a puppet to someone the likes of Wagner group owner and
real-life Grimace, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Prigozhin is a deeply nationalist figure, and as merciless
and ruthless as Putin. He is unlikely to take the utter humiliation of Russia sitting down.
After Russia's defeat, it’s also likely that the international community will order Russia
to pay reparations to Ukraine. If it fails to do so it'll face even more decoupling from the
global economy. Ongoing sanctions meant to deter Russia from ever becoming a serious threat again
would likely see Russia turn into a third-world economy, not necessarily in size but in scope,
as the nation loses all ability to compete in technological markets or acquire sophisticated
electronics. In several years time, a new Russian revolution is not out of the question,
as citizens grow increasingly angry over the economic fallout from the failed invasion.
An inevitable result of Russia's war- even if it wins at this point- is a complete reshaping of
the balance of power in the non-western aligned world. China would officially dethrone Russia
as the most important economic, military, and political power amongst the community
of non-western aligned nations. Yet another humiliating blow to Russian national prestige,
but a major propaganda victory for China as it still chafes from the embarrassment
of having to rely heavily on Soviet Union handouts during the Cold War.
Now go check out How Ukraine Prevented a Day 1 Russia Win, or click this other
video instead! If you wash while you cook, you won’t have so many dishes to do after!