- [Narrator] New tent structures,
entrenchments and short range missile systems.
These satellite images analyzed by the Wall Street Journal
show that in just a few weeks,
Russia has fortified Snake Island,
which it claimed from Ukraine in the first days of the war.
The Maxar and Planet Labs pictures
also highlight patches of burnt vegetation
and the potential collapse of a tower,
following a strike by Kyiv on the island on June 21st.
The territory,
located 30 miles away from the coast of Ukraine,
is strategic for both countries.
For Moscow,
it's an important base in the Black Sea
to threaten targets on Ukraine's shores
and control the ports of Odessa,
where it continues to blockade grain exports.
- Having positions on Snake Island
sort of expands Russia's ability
to block off the entire coastline of Ukraine.
- [Narrator] For Ukraine,
the territory has become a symbol of resistance,
since the recording of an obscene radio message
sent by border guards to the invaders went viral.
- [Ukrainian border guard] (speaking foreign language)
- [Narrator] Since then,
Kyiv has put the island on postage stamps
and publicized some counter attacks on social media.
But as Moscow continues its push in Eastern Ukraine,
Kyiv says it needs more long range weapons
to hit Russian forces,
dominating the air and sea in a key waterway.
Here's why this small island is important
to determine the next phases of the war.
On the first day of Russia's invasion in late February,
it seized Snake Island with help from its Moskva warship.
This satellite image shows the territory before the war,
when it hosted a Garrison of Ukrainian border guardsman.
Moscow moved towards the territory
as part of a wider strategy
to control the Black Sea, analysts say.
But keeping control of it became a priority
when the Moskva was taken down
by a pair of Ukrainian missiles on April 14th.
These images show the ship just days before it was struck.
The vessel, considered Moscow's most powerful warship,
was being used off the coast of Odessa
to provide air and sea capability to Russia's fleet.
The striking of Moskva was proof of Ukraine's ability
to hit targets in the area
and resulted in other Russian vessels
pushing back around 62 miles offshore.
- Owning an island like this,
and being able to put long range air defense systems on it,
is a way of sort of covering that loss.
- [Narrator] That's Thomas Bullock,
an open source intelligence analyst,
who specializes in tracking
and monitoring the Russian military.
- Other vessels in the Black Sea fleet
do have an air defense capability
but it's more limited in range.
So with Snake Island being a land position
in that area where they need to control the air space,
it does become a good place
to place long range air defense.
- [Narrator] But as Russia's focusing
on increasing capabilities on the island,
Kyiv is striking back.
The Ukrainian military said it launched air strikes
on the territory on June 21st.
The Russian Defense Ministry
said it had repelled attacks on the same day.
A comparison of images from June 17th and June 21st
shows three patches of burnt vegetation
on the island and a collapsed tower, analysts say.
Overall, the damage appears limited in scale,
defense experts note,
which could suggest defense systems
help protect the territory.
Satellite images also show
that multiple short range missile systems
were moved following the strikes,
which defense experts say could indicate
they were moved to be re-armed or to avoid direct hits.
On June 22nd,
images show they were moved back
into their original positions.
Other Ukrainian attacks on the island occurred in May.
The Ukrainian Military released footage
that it said showed a May 8th strike
on a Russian helicopter on Snake Island.
Days later, Ukraine said a drone strike
hit more Russian targets.
Ukraine used weapons such as the TB2 Bayraktar,
a type of unmanned drone,
and the SU-27 fighter jet
to inflict significant damage on Russian Forces.
But it wasn't enough to dislodge them,
defense experts say.
- They attacked the island multiple times,
striking it with TB2 Bayraktars,
attacking boats,
circling around the island,
and then finally leveling all of the buildings on the island
with an air strike from manned SU-27s.
- [Narrator] Following the attacks
from Ukrainian forces in May,
Russia rebuilt and expanded
its defensive presence on Snake Island.
Analysts say a comparison of satellite images
from May 12th and June 5th,
shows that in a matter of weeks,
new tent structures have been erected
and additional Pantsir and Tor anti-aircraft missile systems
have been put in place.
- [Thomas] So we see a large number of trenches
that have been dug to protect vehicles from the sides.
So it sort of limits even air attack capabilities
to a certain extent.
- [Narrator] Defense experts say these images
from June 5th and June 10th
also show lots of vacant and trenched areas
where additional missiles could be stored.
Russia could deploy the powerful
S400 Air Defense System, analysts say,
which would make it more difficult
for Ukrainian forces to reclaim.
However, other experts say placing the costly system,
that can take down targets
such as fighter jets on the island is unlikely.
It would be vulnerable to attacks in this location.
- I think it shows Russia's keenness
to maintain control over the island.
And it also shows that they're learning from their mistake
in not defending it appropriately the first time, yeah.
- [Narrator] So with Russia's current resources,
defense experts say Ukraine needs more powerful weapons
to inflict serious damage.
NATO countries have been supplying Ukraine
with a range of equipment,
but Kyiv is requesting more modern systems.
- (speaking foreign language)
- [Narrator] The US has offered HIMARS,
a guided rocket launcher,
which will be used to fire rockets
that are capable of hitting targets
as far as 48 miles.
Even with those weapons,
analysts say it would be hard for Ukraine
to retake full control of the territory.
The Russian Defense Ministry did not respond
to WSJ's request for comment on our analysts' assessment
of the military buildup on the island.
The Ukrainian Chief of Military Intelligence
said on a Ukrainian news channel on June 22nd,
that Kyiv's goal is to liberate Snake Island
from Russian forces.
The contest over Snake Island
is just one important battle
playing out in the wider war in Ukraine,
where equipment losses and casualties are mounting.
- The levels of equipment loss we're seeing
and the manpower losses we're seeing,
it's fractional compared to places like the Donbas.
- [Narrator] In the Donbas region,
Moscow's troops are pushing to expand
and consolidate areas they hold
across large parts of Eastern Ukraine.
Moscow has steadily gained ground
by using its advantage of heavy weapons, analysts say,
and Snake Island gives Russian Forces
a strategic position to help them push forward
with their campaign.