On 28 February 2022, as Russian forces approached Kyiv, Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy,
signed a letter formally applying for Ukrainian membership of the European Union.
In an emotional plea to EU leaders, he called on members to grant the country
immediate accession under a new 'special procedure'.
But while there may be some support for the idea, just how feasible is it?
Could Ukraine really be granted fast track EU membership?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict security and statehood.
Over the past six and a half decades, the European Union has come to be seen
not only as the world's largest trading bloc, and one of the world's largest economies,
but also as the world's most ambitious peace projects.
The driving force for French-German reconciliation after two world wars,
it's also been credited with reuniting eastern and western Europe
after the Cold War - an achievement for which it won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012.
But just how does a country join the European Union?
This question has been given international attention by the decision of the Ukrainian
government to formally apply for membership following Russia's invasion of the country.
But what made the request stand out was the call by President Zelenskyy
for a special procedure allowing immediate membership.
So, is there a way to do this and should it even be considered?
The European Union is made up of 27 member states.
Leaving aside its external holdings, it covers almost exactly four million square kilometres,
or one and a half million square miles.
Its northernmost point is in Finland and it's most southerly in Spain.
The most easterly and westerly points are in Cyprus and Portugal respectively.
In total, its population is 450 million.
Put in perspective, if it were a single country it would be the world's seventh
largest state by geographical area and the third largest by population.
Ukraine lies to the east of the European Union, sharing a border with four EU members:
Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania.
At around 580,000 square kilometers, or 225 000 square miles, if it were to
join the EU it would be the largest member in terms of continental geographic area.
With 44.1 million inhabitants, it would be the EU's fifth most populous state after Germany,
France, Italy, and Spain.
The European Union emerged in the aftermath of the Second World War.
Having experienced two devastating conflicts in the first half of the 20th century,
leading European political figures argued that the only way to prevent
future wars was to make conflict too costly by binding their economies together.
The first step towards this came in 1951 with the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community.
Then, in 1957, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Luxembourg,
and Belgium signed the Treaty of Rome establishing the European Economic Community,
which eventually evolved into the European Union.
Pledging 'ever closer union among the peoples of Europe',
in the decades that followed the membership grew.
Britain, Ireland and Denmark joined in 1973; Greece in 1981;
Spain and Portugal in 1986; and Austria, Finland and Sweden in 1995.
However, the biggest single enlargement came in 2004 when 10 new countries joined.
The eight former communist states from central and eastern Europe - Poland Hungary
Slovenia Slovakia the Czech Republic and the three Baltic republics Estonia,
Latvia and Lithuania - as well as Cyprus and Malta from the Mediterranean.
Then, three years later, in 2007, the membership expanded to 27
with the accession of Bulgaria and Romania.
In 2013, Croatia became the most recent addition, taking the total number of members up to 28.
However, following Britain's departure from the Union in 2020,
the current membership stands at 27.
As well as expanding, the EU also evolved .
Having started with economic integration,
in the years that followed the areas of cooperation expanded massively.
This saw the emergence of a single european currency, the Euro, borderless travel, and greater
cooperation in the fields of foreign and security policy as well as justice and home affairs.
It also saw the development of the customs union, which allowed for far easier trade,
and the emergence of the single market that allowed for the free movement of people,
goods, services and capital across the member states.
All this means that the procedure for joining the European Union has
become an exceedingly long and complex process.
Indeed, whereas UN membership can be completed in a matter of weeks,
if not days, EU accession usually takes many many years.
Prospective members are not only expected to meet the initial criteria of having a
functioning market economy and democratic institutions, they're then expected to adopt tens
of thousands of pages of legislation that make up the acquis communautaire, the EU's body of laws.
Incorporating 35 chapters grouped into six thematic clusters, this covers everything
from judicial reform, transport, education, and financial services through to taxation,
agriculture, energy, food safety, environment, statistics and foreign policy, to name just a few.
This is inevitably a huge undertaking.
It's not only about making sure that the required laws are passed, they must also be implemented.
This requires extensive monitoring.
Finally, there's a ratification process.
To put all this into perspective, in Croatia's case - as the most recent
country to join - the negotiations took six years from 2005 until 2011.
And it then took another 18 months for the ratification to be completed,
allowing it to join on the 1 July 2013.
As for the three countries currently negotiating membership,
Turkey has been in talks since 2005, Montenegro since 2012, and Serbia since 2014.
And none of them will be joining anytime soon.
It's against this backdrop that President Zelensky's appeal for
a special procedure for immediate membership needs to be understood.
While Ukraine already has an association agreement with the EU,
which came into force in 2017 and is seen as the first step towards eventual membership,
this falls far short of the steps needed for full membership.
Nevertheless, there are those in Europe who have called for
Ukraine to be given some sort of accelerated accession process.
But is this possible or even desirable?
What makes the European Union so successful - and thus does help prevent further conflict amongst
its members, as its founders hoped - is that it's met its goal of achieving interdependence.
But this has only been possible because everyone has accepted the commonly agreed rules.
This not only means that goods produced in one member state can be safely used in another,
it also means that EU citizens living across the union will be treated equally,
and that companies operating across the Union will be subject to the same treatment
in different courts and jurisdictions.
If countries can't or won't play by the rules, the system will inevitably break down.
This is why the accession process is so rigorous and why taking in a country before
it can meet those demands means fundamentally undermining the foundations of the EU system.
In this sense, there is no special fast-track procedure. Nor should there be.
Of course, some would argue that special cases have been made in the past.
Notable examples would include Greece's accession in 1981, following its return to democracy after
military dictatorship, and East Germany's integration following the end of the Cold War.
But while these were indeed exceptions to the usual process,
it's important to emphasise that they took place at a very different time.
The EU was far far less developed than it is today.
Another possible example is Bulgaria and Romania.
Despite years of negotiations,
neither was up to the rigours of membership when they joined in 2007.
However, at the time it was nevertheless felt important to take them in
as part of the unification of eastern and western Europe.
It's then taken years to bring them up to the required standards;
a process that's still not entirely complete.
But, even in their case, they had met the fundamental conditions for membership.
In the case of Ukraine, it's far behind where either Bulgaria or Romania were when they joined.
It would be wholly unable to meet any of the complex demands of membership as things stand.
Of course, some have argued that this could be managed if the process was turned on its head.
Instead of meeting the demands of membership and then joining, countries could join but
be kept out of parts of the system until they meet the requirements for full participation.
While this could theoretically be an option, it would mark a radical departure
from the way that things have been done and a fundamental change in how the EU operates.
It would also be extremely complex.
It's certainly not something that could be done without real and lengthy consideration.
Beyond this, there are also various other important arguments why fast
track membership for Ukraine would be problematic.
For a start, it would inevitably lead to calls from the other prospective
members from the Western Balkans - Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina,
Kosovo and North Macedonia - to be given the same treatment.
And following Ukraine's lead, Georgia has also now submitted its application for membership.
They would all also argue that EU membership would help to cement peace
and security in their neighbourhoods and that they should also be taken in.
In addition, there would also be other problems.
Most obviously, it would import a new territorial issue into the European Union.
After the accession of the divided island of Cyprus,
in 2004, the EU has been at pains to avoid such problems in future.
A major factor holding up Serbia's accession process
has been the ongoing differences over Kosovo.
Then there's the problem of what happens if it all goes wrong.
The EU has few ways to deal with problematic members once they're in,
as we've seen with Poland and Hungary.
Whether we like it or not, Ukraine has any number of deeper problems;
not least of all endemic corruption and weak institutions.
Finally, even if Ukraine were to join tomorrow, what would happen next.
There's absolutely no possibility of direct military intervention to help it.
Apart from anything else, the EU doesn't have the military capabilities to act.
Instead, for the most part EU members work within NATO.
And NATO has made it clear that it won't step in either.
While it would certainly carry a lot of symbolism,
EU membership for Ukraine would not change anything on the ground.
For all these reasons,
the European Union has already shied away from endorsing the call for fast track membership.
Despite a direct address from President Zelenskyy, the European Parliament - while passing a
resolution calling for the toughest measures to be taken against Russia, and explicitly endorsing
Ukraine's possible membership - stopped short of suggesting any sort of accelerated process.
Instead, it called for a merit-based procedure.
Essentially, it said that Ukraine would have to follow the rules and procedures
expected of every other candidate.
For over 60 years, the EU has led the way in building peace and stability in Europe.
After the devastation and destruction of the Second World War, and the deep
political divisions of the Cold War, the EU has led the way in promoting reconciliation
and preventing the possibility of a return to war amongst its members.
As envisaged by the founders of the EU, that success has been built on integration.
A complex interdependence now exists that is built on a vast rule book
and that fundamental trust that members will adhere to their common laws.
This trust is underpinned by a rigorous procedure for membership.
Therefore, as tempting as it is to perhaps consider
some form of expedited membership, in real terms it simply isn't possible or desirable.
The EU's strength relies on ensuring that its system works.
Bringing in a country - especially one as large and as populous as Ukraine - would
inevitably undermine the union and would achieve nothing in practical terms.
Instead, there are other more immediately useful things that the EU can do,
such as imposing comprehensive sanctions on Russia and supplying weapons to Ukraine.
All this said, Ukrainian EU membership is now firmly on the agenda.
The problem, of course, is that as the conflict continues the real question
is whether there'll be an independent Ukrainian government - or even an
independent Ukraine - to pursue the chance of membership in future.
I hope you found that useful. If so, here are some more videos you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.