mike good to have you with us so first
of all let's just talk about this leak
it's coming at a time when democrats
control the house the senate the white
house do we know how the president how
politicians are responding to this
well joe we haven't heard from the white
house declining to comment after this
story broke last night that's likely to
change when we see the president leave
the white house in just a few hours to
travel down to alabama
it is just significant to look at what
the president has said recently though
about this issue he has said women's
reproductive health is under assault in
this country in the state of the union
address he called for congress to enact
the protections of roe versus wade the
protections on abortion rights
into federal law that's led to some
democratic prominent democratic
officials including bernie sanders and
elizabeth warren to call for this moment
to do just that it would require
changing the senate filibuster's
rule lowering the voting threshold to 50
obviously we wouldn't expect any
republicans to support this that's an
internal fight for democrats but we will
likely as i say hear from the president
later today and we're also going to hear
from vice president harris she was
already scheduled to speak at a gala
dinner tonight for emily's list that is
a democratic uh political organization
that supports candidates who support
abortion rights so this is an issue that
will likely become front and center as
we move forward especially for the
democratic party we want to bring in nbc
news justice correspondent julia ainsley
right now julia nbc news has not
obtained or confirmed this draft put out
there by politico but what do we know
about this document and what are the
implications if roe is overturned
well that's right joe it's probably
unlikely that anyone will obtain this
because it's such an
unprecedented leak but when you look
through this document it does seem to
line up to exactly where the court would
have been in their drafting decisions in
february again they heard these oral
arguments over the mississippi case that
banned abortion at 15 weeks in december
this would have been about where they
were having
figured out who was in the majority who
was in the minority and having alito
draft this opinion being the one to
speak for the majority it also shows
we're not clear where the chief justice
would stand on this issue since he would
normally be the one to write the
majority if he were indeed on that side
it could be though that he just hasn't
picked a side and you were right to
point out that these are decisions that
could change that is a big reason why
things never leak from the supreme court
because these justices stay so insular
so that they have the will to deliberate
to change their minds to look at how
someone else might present an opinion
and then be swayed that's the way this
body is supposed to work but right now
if you take a look at where things
change stand and if they didn't change
it seems that this would not be what
some had predicted to be a slow
kind of weakening of roe but instead
this would obliterate ro and julia you
mentioned this leak itself is shocking
there is a lot of speculation out there
but at this point that's really all it
is is speculation right we really have
no idea where this leak came from do we
really no idea i mean we know that it's
usually a very small number of people
who are able to see these documents it
has never had a leak like this has never
happened and the modern history of the
court you just have to think about what
the topic is here and that this isn't
leaking about some kind of arcane law or
something that's very in the weeds this
is perhaps the most hotly
and highly watched decision uh over the
modern history there's been so many um
so much debate over this issue since the
court ruled about 50 years ago on this
issue and so it could be that whoever
this was who leaked it felt that there
was some moral implication to do so
either pro or anti-abortion rights and
so now we'll be uh sitting to see how
things could change and how the court
will respond so far the court has made
no comment on this but no doubt they are
rattled joe mike this would be a legal
decision with huge political
ramifications in august 2021 nbc news
poll found 54 percent of americans
believe abortion should be legal
democrats were heading into the midterms
facing strong headwinds could this
outcome this decision by the court if it
happens
change the dynamics this november and if
so how
well joe i've actually been talking to
democratic officials very close to this
white house and they've been telling me
for months frankly that yes we're
looking at the poll numbers for the
president for his party and sensing that
this is going to be a midterm that
follows tradition in other words that
democrats were going to face a
shellacking likely a strong wave against
them but they said look wait for the
supreme court ruling because this has
the possibility of really upsetting the
entire political dynamic and that's what
we're already beginning to see swing
district democrats already posting
messages to twitter alyssa slotkin for
instance she's going to face a tough
race in her michigan district michigan
is one of those states which would
immediately the previous law which would
outright ban abortion would go into
effect we saw in the past elections for
instance in the governor's race in
virginia last fall the democratic
candidate terry mcauliffe had warned
that the republican candidate glenn
younkin would overturn would sign into
law a ban on abortion that's likely to
now be a message it didn't work for
mcauliffe last year because it was lower
in terms of economic issues other issues
but this now raises it puts it high
profile the top of the list and
democrats really sensing that they might
have an opportunity here republicans
though we've seen in the past
republican-based voters also strongly
motivated by the issue of abortion and
so we could see both sides even more
motivated to get to the polls and this
is always in the midterms an election
about turnout julia ainslie ainsley mike
emily thanks
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