- [Reporter] The house of representatives is gearing
up to elect its new leader, the speaker of the house.
Democrats lost the majority in the midterm elections
meaning Republicans will get to name the next speaker
replacing Nancy Pelosi
- Who House Republicans choose to be their speaker
will be the person who really sets how
House Republicans work with the Senate
how they're going to work with the White House
and House Democrats in the next two years.
- [Reporter] But after a weaker than expected midterms
performance Republicans don't have that large
of a majority in the house
which could complicate the process of choosing a speaker.
So here's a look at how the vote is shaping up
and what's at stake for both parties.
Before the midterms, California Republican
Kevin McCarthy was largely seen as the clear front runner.
- [Natalie] Kevin McCarthy has led House Republicans
as the minority leader for the past four years
and he's done it
with a singular focus on winning the majority back.
- Number one thing I'm gonna do
as a leader is I'm gonna listen to all voices
in the conference and we're gonna do together what is best.
- [Reporter] But after Republicans fail to deliver
a red wave in the midterms
McCarthy doesn't have the backing that he was expecting.
- The criticism has come from a handful
of Republicans who have kind of long held beefs
with this party leader
- [Reporter] And one of those Republicans
with the beef is Arizona Republican Andy Biggs.
He's also running for speaker while McCarthy was chosen
by the GOP to be their speaker candidate
in an internal vote in November, the results
of that vote aren't enough to win him the gavel.
Here's why.
On January 3rd, House Republicans are expected to
have a majority of 222 to 212 Democrats.
With one absence to be elected, a candidate must win
at least 218 votes or the majority
of votes from those present and voting in the roll call.
But here's where it gets tricky.
Members don't have to vote
for their party's nominated candidate.
They could vote for anyone
even if they aren't serving in the house.
Democrats aren't expected to vote for McCarthy
and at least five Republicans have voiced their opposition
to McCarthy in recent days.
- I think it's far too risky to pick Kevin McCarthy.
I think it's risky to have someone leading our effort going
into 2024 who vastly underperformed in 2022.
- So the way the math works is Kevin McCarthy cannot
lose five votes.
If he has four detractors, that will get him to 218
but he's got to work to win some of the other
folks over and make sure that the folks who haven't
announced how they're voting are going to be in his camp.
- [Reporter] The opposition
from House Republicans varies making it difficult
for McCarthy to address every issue.
- Andy Biggs, he's been critical
of Kevin McCarthy's leadership.
Matt Gates has had long time conflicts
with Kevin McCarthy, Ralph Norman.
He's kind of gone back and forth
on how adamant he is in the opposition to Kevin McCarthy.
- [Reporter] Some Republicans have said they would
support McCarthy if he commits to changing
some conference rules
including the motion to vacate a chair
which would make it easier for him to be ousted as speaker.
McCarthy hasn't yet agreed to back that motion.
- You have a broad swath of the House Republican
Conference that is backing Kevin McCarthy, but
because their majority is so narrow, any handful of
House Republicans can make Kevin McCarthy's life difficult.
- [Reporter] If McCarthy can't garner the 218 votes needed
to become speaker, a few things could happen.
The Clerk of the House representative Cheryl Johnson
could repeat the vote until someone gets a majority
but that hasn't happened that often.
The last time the house voted
on multiple ballots for a speaker vote was in 1923.
- Most Republican lawmakers will acknowledge
that they think this will go to multiple ballots.
- [Reporter] If that doesn't work, they could adjourn
the house essentially calling a timeout in order
to find a solution whether that's a different candidate
or twisting the arm of detractors, in the year ahead.
Republicans are facing a vote on lifting the debt ceiling
and funding the federal government.
Two historically tough issues
for Republicans who oppose increased spending.
- Whoever takes this job
if it's Kevin McCarthy or someone else
is going to be setting up for an even tougher wrangling
of House Republicans in the new Congress.
This is only the first vote.