- So in Q one Tesla finally released their new production
and delivery numbers.
This is ahead of the earnings call
which officially hasn't been scheduled yet.
And let me kinda zoom in on here 'cause I wanna read
this first section of this to you.
So Q one production totaled 34494 vehicles a 40% increase
from Q four and by far the most quarter in Tesla history.
Now we're gonna see that more and more because
the Model 3 is ramping up so quickly.
24728 were Model S and Model X and 9766 were Model 3.
Again these are produced, this is a productive quarter.
Now as we saw on inside EV is about 8.2 thousand
of them have been delivered.
Okay, now the Model 3 output increased exponentially.
Representing a fourfold increase over last quarter.
Okay, so the ramp is happening, yup there you go.
They talk about the Model T or something else.
I'm not interested in that.
This is what I'm interested in here.
We were able to double
the weekly Model 3 production rate during
the quarter by rapidly addressing production
and supply chain bottlenecks,
including several short factory shutdowns
to upgrade equipment.
Now that is massive because that to me says
that delivery ramp I'm saying, that S curve
is we're starting to actually enter that.
And so that is really exciting.
Now there is another blurb here
about them becoming profitable from operations
in Q three as well, which is amazing
because, you know just last week we're were talking about,
are they going bankrupt?
And I kinda helped to explain why they're not going bankrupt
and it's because they still have cash on hand.
But remember those three pipes, operations was the big one.
And because that is the buying and selling
of the cars and all the costs that go into them,
if that can turn profitable the sky's the limit for Tesla.
And you know the Giga-factory, two, three
will obviously be announced after
that, new manufacturing plants.
So if they can turn an operational profit even
though maybe overall the company is still losing money
because their investing more than they're making,
if they can start making money off their line
of operations that will be huge.
So big shout outs to Tesla for their Q one results.
I think that this is phenomenal.
I did plug these numbers into that delivery ramp
so we can kinda go back and take a look at that.
You saw the dynamic one.
I did pull together essentially a different one here
which shows, let me see, which shows both models.
So what you have here are those actual numbers
that they've given us as of April 9th.
And you can see I just mapped out one of these
is the five K model where it kind of limits it at five K
and the other one is at 10 K.
Again, I'm skeptical that they'll hit the 10 K,
that that's really the limit, I think
it might be less than that.
I'm happy to be completely wrong but you know, just
in the sense of trying to have a confidence interval
or some kind of band to work with in here.
This is essentially what it's looking like in reality.
And the big question is where does it go from here?
Does it keep, you know, climbing to where they hit 10000
or does it start to level off closer to 5000
or somewhere in between.
We'll have to stay tuned and kinda check that out.
Now if this based in current reality, if that were
to continue here's what those numbers would look like.
So in 2018 if the limit is 5000 per week
that they can produce, that means
that they'll produce a 177 thousand.
Almost 178 thousand, and 242 thousand on the 10 K model.
So somewhere in between there is likely,
is where I'm gonna say we're gonna see for the Model 3.
And literally just a week ago
that was under a 100 thousand for the five K model
so this exponential growth for the remainder
of the year, remember we're still pretty early in the year,
is gonna lead to just some giant numbers from Tesla.
And this how they can actually
achieve operational profitability.
Now of course going into the future years
these level off quite a bit and the margins
of error get much more dramatic, right,
because you're looking at, you know, a 100% difference
in the peak of those S curves of that log growth curve.
So you could be looking at 250 thousand Model 3's per year
or 500 thousand Model 3's per year.
So these are kinda very subject to be wrong
because they're so diverse.
But somewhere in between here, in between 178 thousand
and 242 thousand is currently what the model is showing
for the remainder of this year.
Which means that Tesla is just set up for
a monster, monster year.
Now as a result of all of this the Model 3
is officially now the best selling electric car
in the United States and you can see kind
of the numbers broken down here.
The Model 3 now has yeah, 8.2 thousand
that have been delivered.
The Prius Prime there at 6.5, so yeah it's still
a big, but just to be clear the Prius Prime
is a plug in hybrid, it's not a pure electric,
a battery EV as you may see it.
You know, and then you can see the Model S
and Model X are the next two which are pretty surprising
because they're at such a premium price over the next three.
So there you have it.
The Model 3 is the best selling car in,
the best selling electric car in the United States.
And this number is just going to absolutely continue
to grow at an exponential rate
and just crush every other car on this list.
It's gonna be, I mean, it's gonna
be rivaling other, you know, non-electric cars.
So real excited about that.
Congratulations to Tesla again for having
a monster quarter and you know, the data here
is kinda showing that you know, it's working.
And you know one of the funny things about this by the way
is that this is just about double what
the Chevy Bolt was able to do.
4.4 thousand for the Chevy Bolt and 8.2 thousand
for the Tesla Model 3 so.