In 2525, after months of rising tensions and the odd skirmish, the United Earth Government and
the Covenant entered into a state of war. For the next 27 years, both humanity and the races
of that theocratic alliance of aliens endured terrible losses, only for the outbreak of the far
more ravenous Flood to nearly destroy both sides altogether. Had it not been for the Flood,
humanity might have been driven extinct, but it was unexpectedly the Covenant which collapsed
first. A Great Schism caused its empire to fall apart and was soon split between
aspirant warlords. A ceasefire was declared, and while the former worlds of the Covenant
fought amongst themselves, the United Earth Government struggled to rebuild its strength.
Now, after this, things got kinda confusing, and if we’re being honest, I kinda stopped
paying attention. Apparently the Forerunners came back and some AIs took over the galaxy?
But that might not matter, because supposedly the biggest threat to humanity these days
is a Covenant splinter group called “The Banished”. There’s been a whole lot of dire
warnings about how powerful this group and their leader, a Jiralhanae known as Atriox, might be.
But are the Banished and Atriox really that big a deal? I’m not exactly sold. In fact,
I’m willing to argue the opposite.I think Atriox and the Banished are a paper tiger.
They look threatening sure, but in reality they're ineffectual and not up to a major
challenge. And on this episode of Incoming, I’ll be doing my best to support this view.
So let’s start with a brief overview of what the Banished actually are. By most estimations,
they are a Covenant splinter faction turned mercenary organization. They rose to power
after Atriox led other disgruntled members of the Jiralhanae race against their Sangheili masters.
Tired of being used as cannon fodder, the newly formed “Banished” became rebels and pirates,
conducting surgical strikes against the Covenant and scavenging for resources and supplies. Along
the way, they gathered additional mercenaries, becoming a powerful force in their own right.
They avoided straight up fights, preferring instead to raid and salvage.
With the collapse of the Covenant, the ranks of the Banished continued to swell.
Dismissing vengeance as a petty emotion, Atrox made sure both the Sangheili and even
humans criminals were welcomed into the group and given a chance at a new life.
The Banished have been active across the galaxy ever since,
entering into conflict with both the UNSC and the other remnants of the Covenant.
But, here’s the thing, while Atriox is undoubtedly a formidable individual, the organization he
has created is not. In my opinion, war has outgrown mercenary groups like the Banished.
Major conflicts are no longer decided by which side has the pointier sticks,
best tanks or largest starships, if that were the case, the UNSC would have lost.
Instead, wars are usually decided by some, separate, yet kinda connected factors,
military organization, logistics and simple endurance. Mercenary groups usually aren’t
very effective in this area, and need to rely on a larger power to sponsor them in these areas.
Let’s start with the first one, military organization and logistics. This might not
be very exciting in fact it’s probably the most boring part of any war, but this is usually what
determines the winner. You can have the most powerful army the galaxy has ever seen, but if
it can’t get toilet paper, bullets, and everything in-between at the right place at the right time,
that army is going to fall apart. And this isn’t exactly breaking news, every successful empire in
history that expanded through conquest has been built on military logistics.
And a great example of that is in the campaigns of the Roman Empire against the
barbarian tribes of Europe. You could argue that Roman soldiers were maybe better armed
and better trained than their counterparts from say, Gaul, but better here is a relative term.
For all intents and purposes in terms of courage, and martial skill,
both sides were pretty evenly matched. Rome instead excelled because it could organize
large groups of men at a single concentrated point and keep them fed and supplied. Hans Delbruck,
author of the “History of the Art of War” put this a lot better than I ever could, writing:
“The superiority of the Roman art of warfare was based on the army organization as a whole.
A system that permitted very large masses of men to be concentrated at a given point,
to move in an orderly fashion, to be fed and to be kept together. The Gauls could do none of these
things. It was not so much the courage of the Romans which was in no way greater than their own,
but the Roman massed power that subdued them. And again not that their own mass of itself
would not have been much greater but their mass was an inert one incapable of movement.
It was the Roman civilization that conquered barbarism for imparting the capability of
movement to a large mass is a work of art that only a higher civilization can achieve
barbarism cannot do it. The Roman army was not simply a mass but an organized mass
and it could be a mass only because it was organized and formed a complex and living entity.”
Now obviously this doesn't entirely apply to a conflict between the UNSC and the Banished. Here,
the Banished might have warriors many times stronger than the average human,
but while that may have made a difference in the time of Rome,
physical strength just isn’t as big a deal anymore. A bullet is still going to kill you.
In the age of interstellar warfare, the ability to sustain a large mass is even more important,
and in this UNSC is Rome, and the Banished are some barbarian tribe.
When an organization like the UNSC goes to war,it can call upon the entire power of a modern
nation-state. It has a motivated population, economically powerful civilian industries that can
be converted to wartime use, and most importantly it has established logistics, supply chains,
and the ability to get everything where it needs to go. Ships built on Mars can end
up in service over Harvest. Titanium mined on Reach, fueled industries on Troy. The Covenant
were not fighting a single army or fleet, but an entire society dedicated to the war effort.
The Banished by contrast, lack every institution that makes a nation-state so well-suited towards
large scale warfare. As far as I’m aware Atriox doesn't hold any worlds, he doesn't possess
any civilian industries, he doesn't have a tax policy, all he has is an army. Without any kind
of support apparatus, the Banished in effect, has another enemy to fight: supply shortages.
And unlike the UNSC, if the Banished are ever short on ammunition or maybe just water,
they can’t just put in a request down the supply chain, they have to go out and steal it. If what
they need is held by an enemy force, they have to fight a battle to win the resources they need to
fight a battle. This is barbarian level warfare, and just kinda self-defeating. It’s a lot easier
to produce things like bandages instead of invading an enemy planet and capturing them.
Now the other major factor I believe contributes to victory and is again something I think The
Banished lack, endurance, or the ability to take a hit. This idea of endurance exists on a few
different levels, from an individual’s belief in the cause he’s fighting for,
to an armies ability to reorganize after a sizable defeat, and a nation's ability to remain
determined and committed to war. There have been, after all, many armies and nations across history
that can take to the field and deliver a knockout blow, but there aren’t quite
as many who can be on the receiving end of that knockout blow, and remain in the fight.
The UNSC, if nothing else, proved in the human-Covenant war that it could
take a punch and keep going. This was in part because of the enormous resources it
could dedicate to the conflict, but also because the Covenant simply gave them no other option.
Ironically, the Covenant’s policy of extermination probably kept the UNSC fighting longer than they
otherwise might have, if say the Covenant had offered some kind of conditional surrender.
The Covenant, like the UNSC, were perfectly able to recover from a military defeat,
but a little less so from a political or spiritual one. It was the Great Schism within the Covenant,
rather than any individual USNC victory that contributed to their eventual collapse.
But the Banished have the worst of both worlds. For them a military defeat is the same as a
political defeat because the entire group is based on Atriox and his cult of personality.
Nobody is joining a mercenary organization because they have a strong belief in the mercenary ideal,
by definition they don’t have one. Instead, people join mercenary groups for personal gain.
Atroix’s subordinates compete for his influence and favor, not because they really love Atriox or
the Banished, but because through them, they acquire wealth or prestige or whatever. The
Banished have something to offer them, so as long as that doesn't change, they’ll stick with them.
But how long do the Banished last if they suffer a few really bad defeats.
Maybe the genius of Atriox is looking a little less compelling,
and the promise of material rewards is a little less guaranteed. I’m sure there’s a core group
of individuals who really do believe in him and will stick with Atriox no matter what, but not
enough to keep the entire group going. And what if Atriox dies? Well, then the group is truly sunk,
without any line of succession or a recognized, legitimized institution capable of selecting
a new leader, the Banished are going to be scattered to the winds. The Banished are fragile,
just one bad day away from completely disintegrating. They can’t take a hit.
So while a group like the Banished might be threatening in the short term, I don’t think
they have any long-term survival prospects. Atriox can only endure if he aligns himself to
some higher cause, something that can appeal to an entire nation rather than some bored mercenaries.
It’s been speculated that he intends to unify the Jiralhanae, but the group he’s created wouldn’t
be very effective at that. If I’m a human pirate who joined the Banished to get some easy money,
what do I care who leads the Jiralhanae, what’s in it for me?
I guess my overall point is that mercenary groups like the Banished can win battles, but not wars.
Without a developed military-industrial complex to support their logistics,
or the ability to take a hit, I’m not too worried about the Banished.
Like I said, in this contest, the UNSC is like the Roman Empire. Organized, regimented,
with the weight of an entire civilization behind it, while the Banished are one of
those barbarian tribes that united under a particularly powerful warlord, only to get
crushed beneath the boots of civilization. But who knows, even Rome was sacked once or twice.
I’m going to address one last point that has always kind of annoyed me.
A lot of the fear surrounding Atriox and the Banished is driven by a quote from Isabel,
the AI on board the UNSC Spirit of Fire. She says, and quite dramatically:
“Atriox was the first to defy the Covenant and survive.
And his defiance inspired others. Atriox and his Banished raided Covenant resources,
cutting a swath across the galaxy - growing in strength with each attack,
gathering killers and mercenaries to his side. The Covenant had two targets in those years:
humanity and Atriox. They almost got us...But Atriox...They never came close."
While on the surface this might inspire a sense of dread, thinking about it for
more than a few seconds brings about some questions. Such as, were the Covenant even
trying that hard to take down Atriox? If one of your opponents is a vast interstellar Empire
with hundreds of planets, vast armies and fleets and on top of that, just so happens to contradict
the tenets of your ancient religion, and the other is a group of raiders who go around
avoiding straight up fights in favor of stealing shit, which one are you going to focus on first?
This is kinda like saying the Axis Powers in World War 2 were at war with both the Soviet Union,
and Uruguay. They nearly got the Soviet Union, but Uruguay,
they never came close. Technically that’s correct, but it lacks context,
and doesn't necessarily mean that Uruguay is a greater threat than the Soviets.
But that of course is just my opinion, and even though I’m not 7 years old yet,
and haven’t entered in the state of rampancy, I’d like to hear your thoughts.
can the Banished win a war of attrition? Does Atriox have some higher goal in mind
that he might plausibly attain? Are you from Uruguay and offended by that analogy?
Let me know in the comments, and until next time, this has been Incoming.