Japan has a somewhat special relationship with its East Asian neighbours... You could
call it complicated or even stormy. Here on VisualPolitik, we have talked
about it on several occasions and the common reason is always the same:
the historical quarrels that time and again return like a boomerang to political news.
But as always, there are exceptions: one country in particular, which also suffered from Japan's
colonial past, nevertheless has very good relations with the Land of the Rising Sun. Two
countries that are forging a close alliance with significant implications for the entire region.
An alliance, not only in the economic arena, where, in the end,
more or less everyone understands each other, but also in the political one.
And pay attention, because surprisingly we are talking about Taiwan.
And I say surprisingly because we cannot forget that behind everything, is the ever watchful eye
of China. For the Asian giant, anything that has to do with Taiwan becomes a grievance.
And of course, China is the largest client of the Japanese economy, Japanese companies have
invested more than $130 billion dollars in foreign direct investment in the People's Republic and the
Chinese account for almost 30% of all tourists who visit the Land of the Rising Sun each year.
So, I don't know, in theory taking the risk of dumping the Asian giant, well,
what can I say? It doesn't seem like a good idea. But what exactly brings Japan and Taiwan together?
What exactly has made Tokyo want to get so close to Taipei? What are they looking for?
Well, in this video we are going to answer these questions. And yes,
as many of you can probably guess, the growing nationalist agenda of Xi Jinping
has a lot of influence in this whole story. But that's not all. The growing ties between
Japan and Taiwan are not just defined by having a common adversary; in some ways we are talking
about an alliance rooted in economic, social, and even [for better or worse] a shared history.
You see, although the Formosan authorities share with mainland China the claim to the Senkaku
Islands, which are currently administered by Japan, there is no hostility in the foreign policy
between Taiwan and Japan. Quite the contrary. Taiwan, which was also once occupied and
colonized by the Empire of Japan, was one of the few colonies, if not the only one,
where there was little internal resistance to the occupation. In fact, it was probably
also the occupied territory with the largest number of collaborators with the Japanese.
And even today, many people in Taiwan still have fond memories of colonization. A period
in which Taiwan managed to become the richest territory in all of East Asia,
with the exception, of course, of Japan itself. For example, during this period, the island saw
a tenfold increase in the number of kilometres of railway lines, and the Japanese developed
significant electrical power on the island to boost their textile and chemical industries.
And thanks in large part to this, Taiwan began its industrialization much earlier than most
other Asian countries. As a result, Taiwanese industry underwent significant development during
the first half of the 20th century. Although the Second World War meant that most of the
Japanese legacy was completely lost. What’s more, it could be said that,
despite the heavy-handed repression of political dissent, the torture and summary executions that
always characterized the Japanese Empire, Taiwan was the darling of all its colonies.
The fact is that all this shared history goes a long way toward explaining why
Taiwan – officially the Republic of China – had much less difficulty establishing friendly
diplomatic relations with post-war Japan. These relations have united these two countries
in a kind of symbiosis so marked that, for many, Taiwan is like a kind of Chinese sister of Japan.
But what are Japan's interests with Taiwan, where are relations between the two countries heading,
and will Japan's policies toward China change in favor of Taiwan?
Well... Listen up. (JAPAN–TAIWAN FRIENDSHIP: MUTUAL INTEREST?)
On the map they may seem far away, but the truth is that less than 68 miles,
that’s 110 kilometers off the coast, is the closest point between Japan and Taiwan,
specifically, the island of Yonaguni. And a little farther away, about 137 miles,
220 kilometers, is the island of Ishigaki, where Japan is planning to build the closest
military base to communist China. Yes, that’s right. Japan has decided to
build a major military installation less than 140 miles from Taiwan. Quite the letter of intent.
[Can you imagine if they had decided to set up a base so close to South
Korea. What a mess that would have been] But we'll talk about this in more detail later.
The fact is that the Taiwanese, far from getting angry or feeling threatened,
are delighted. I'm sure you can all imagine why.
Nevertheless, it is still striking that Japan is making such a gesture. And for
those of you wondering, no, Japan doesn't officially recognize Taiwan either.
(June 2021: Japan says ties with Taiwan are only unofficial – Business Standard)
Of course, that hasn't stopped the ties between the two territories from
growing since Japan stopped officially recognizing the Formosan government.
It was in 1972 that Japan formally ceased to recognize the Republic of China, which is
what Taiwan is officially called, in favor of recognizing the People's Republic of China as
the legitimate government of all of China. However, these nods to communist China that
were being made by most countries in the world did not really have any consequences
for the day-to-day workings of the country. Companies continued to relocate production
to Taiwan, taking advantage of the relatively cheaper labor force, and they achieved a very
important position in its industrial fabric. And not only that. Japan was also present in
Taiwan as a major investor during Taiwan's industrial transformation
in the 1970s. Taiwan went from textile factories to petrochemical factories,
and in the 1980s and 1990s it managed to develop a powerful IT industry, particularly in hardware,
and very specifically in semiconductors. In all these cases, Japanese capital was decisive.
Interestingly in the case of semiconductors, Taiwan has
managed to beat Japan comfortably. It is the Formosan country that now has the upper hand,
to the extent that the inverse scenario to the one that has historically occurred could occur:
Industrial relocation from Taiwan to Japan. (TSMC eyes opening Japan chip plant in 2023
to supply Sony – Nikkei Asia) For those of you who don't know,
TSMC is the largest and most advanced
semiconductor manufacturer in the world. And yes, it's Taiwanese.
Semiconductors are the key, the backbone, the heart and brain of new technologies.
Robotics, nanotechnology, autonomous driving, 5G and modern military systems.
Everything depends on semiconductors and Taiwan is the great world leader. And of course,
if you don't want to let China become the sole and undisputed leader in the region,
technology plays a key role. In this respect, greater economic integration
between Japan and Taiwan could have enormous geo-economic advantages.
Together, both countries would be very well positioned to lead the technological race in
the region. With all that this implies. And, take note, because this could be key for the
future of the Asia-Pacific and above all for the role of the United States in this
area. We cannot deny that both Japan and Taiwan are great allies of Washington.
So it's all said and done. Integration between the two countries is increasing.
Another example, in terms of infrastructure, Taiwan's first high-speed railway was put into
service in early 2007, and its trains, network and technology were directly imported from Japan.
In fact, the trains used for the high-speed line, of the THSR 700T model and manufactured
by a consortium of Kawasaki, Hitachi and Nippon Sharyo subsidiaries, are an
adapted version of the Japanese Shinkansen. And, of course, they also adapted Japanese
technology to the line. Side note: This was the first time Japan had exported
its high-speed rail technology to a foreign country, and as you can see, the fact that it
was to Taiwan was by no means a coincidence. The project was so complex that it would be
a topic of its own on Megaprojekts. To give you an idea, it was built 100% from scratch
and 70% of the route runs over viaducts, Taiwan invested $16.5 billion dollars in that line.
Mind you, 79% was borne by private investment. And very importantly [Take note wasteful politicians
of the world]: This line is one of the few high-speed lines in the world that is profitable:
over $8 billion New Taiwanese dollars net profit in 2019. This equates to
about $300 million US dollars. Well, wait a moment because
obviously there is more, much more. Because it is in matters of defence
and geopolitics that the relationship between these two countries really
reaches its peak. A union that is as strong as it is informal, but solid nonetheless.
And it seems Japan has important plans for Taiwan... or maybe for itself,
but it doesn't matter because they directly benefit the island claimed by China.
Listen up. (THE "ISHIGAKI PLAN")
Take a look at this map for a moment.
This is the Ryukyu island chain, the westernmost islands of Japan,
among which there is one that we have to highlight in this video: Ishigaki.
Why is that? Because in addition to being one of the main tourist destinations in
Okinawa Prefecture, apart from the island of Okinawa itself,
Ishigaki is also a strategic island for Japan.
Located just a stone's throw from Taiwan and very close to mainland China, but far enough away
not to be overly exposed, Ishigaki could be Japan's next strategic military stronghold.
It is there that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces plan to deploy both anti-ship missiles
and anti-aircraft missiles between late 2022 and March 2023, as well as a contingent of between
500 and 600 soldiers to operate them. All this with the excuse, THE EXCUSE
of protecting the Senkaku or Diaoyu islands from Chinese provocations.
However, the reality could be different. The fact of having a military contingent so close to
Taiwan has been seen by the latter as a clear message of protection to the island nation,
while at the same time protecting Japan itself and, if necessary, it could even be
a base of operations for the United States. (Japan missile plan on Ishigaki island helps
boost Taiwan defense - Nikkei Asia Analysts say the plan is aimed as much
at defending Taiwan as Japan, as any attack on the democratic island could quickly spread
to Japan's southern islands – Tokyo's front line of defense).
Okay, Ishigaki will not be the first of the Ryukyu Islands to be armed with missiles.
In fact, it would be the fourth, but it is important because of all the islands
that would have Japanese missile bases, it is the closest to mainland China.
And don't think for a moment that this plan is new...
The idea of fortifying Ishigaki with missiles has been brewing in the minds
of the Japanese government since 2017. And now China's increasingly aggressive
provocative campaign in the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait has finally moved the
Japanese government to take the plunge. The idea is to create a kind of wall of
islands fortified with missiles capable of repelling a hypothetical Chinese invasion
of Japan's southwestern islands. Now, think about it for a moment.
If a country that has colonized you in the past announces that it is going to
place missiles a few kilometers from your shores, it would be reasonable to protest,
especially if we take into account how suspicious they are about territorial issues
in this part of the world, right? In fact, that's exactly what any
other former Japanese colony would do... Well, no! Not in this case.
Behind closed doors, the Taiwanese authorities have celebrated this as a diplomatic victory.
But, in addition to the major plan to install missiles in Ishigaki, there is still more.
As we have already covered in our regular bulletin to our supporters on Patreon, surprisingly and
despite China's extending tentacles, Taiwan has more and more friends all over the world.
And the truth is that many powers are already moving in directions that are annoying for China,
such as asking for Taiwan to be included as a member of the WHO, which is exactly
what was agreed at the last G7. But there are specific countries
that are making more than discreet gestures towards Taiwan. Obviously,
we’re talking about Japan. Look at this. (Japan removes Taiwan from China map
in defense white paper – Taiwan News) (In A Warning To China, Japan's New Strategy Paper
Mentions Taiwan For The First Time – Forbes) (Japan's deputy defense minister says Taiwan must
be protected 'as a democratic country' – CNN) Yes, incredible as it may seem to us, Japan is
positioning itself as the only force in East Asia seemingly willing to stand up to China.
A position that could be strengthened if Japan finally changes its pacifist Constitution,
which obliges it not to intervene abroad. Although that remains to be seen.
But it doesn't end there. Many international media outlets have echoed a debate that is
going on in the Japanese parliament: a Law on Relations with Taiwan of their own.
And you see, specifically the Taiwan Relations Act passed in 1979 by the United States,
when the United States came to recognize the People's Republic of China to the detriment of
the Republic of China, is taken as a reference. Among other things, the Act served to establish
strong unofficial relations, including virtually diplomatic relations with a de facto American
embassy. A "special relationship" regulated by law, something that Japan lacks today.
In addition, remember that this US law also speaks in terms of defense,
specifically section 2.b.4 states the following:
("It is the policy of the United States to consider any effort to determine the future
of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace
and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.") – Section
2.b.4 of the Taiwan Relations Act) Obviously, we don't know whether the
idea of the Japanese legislators pushing for a bill similar to this one includes
incorporating the field of military defense or boycotts and sanctions against China.
But what it certainly does seek is to establish a much closer relationship
with Taiwan to the detriment of China. And that's quite a game-changer with Beijing.
Together the two countries could become the spearhead
of a new pro-democracy wave in the region,
with enough resources to attract other countries and contain the growing presence of China.
Particularly if we take into account the ties with the United States and its economic
and technological influence. Without going any further, the combined investment of both countries
in R&D is close to $250 billion dollars a year. At the moment, the first big change may be
Taiwan's entry into the CPTPP, the heir to the trans-Pacific trade agreement that
the United Kingdom has recently applied to join and which is led precisely by Japan.
(Tsai lays out roadmap for Taiwan to join CPTPP. Taiwan News)
Who would have thought it, passive Japan beginning to lead an apparent
retaining wall to curb Beijing's ambitions. Of course, all this opens up another debate:
Can Japan really intensify its relations with Taiwan without jeopardizing its huge economic
ties with China? Are we perhaps facing the first example in Asia of tough talk against
Xi Jinping's national-imperialist policies? These are not minor questions. In fact,
this is precisely the debate, both in Japan and in the United States itself:
Should we use a tough hand against Xi Jinping? For now, you can leave us your opinion in the
comments. And you know, if you found this video interesting, don't forget to like
it and subscribe to VisualPolitik. All the best and see you next time.