hi everyone welcome back to my channel if you're new here my name is Stefan and on the sun we just
recently have had a new coronal hole open up at the solar equator which means that a high speed
stream is currently in route to our planet and that is likely to cause a geomagnetic storm in
the next few days I calculated around March 30th based on some data from our last geomagnetic storm
from this coronal hole here that was the strongest geomagnetic storm we've had in six years it was a
G4 on a scale going from one to five and it began on March 23rd went to the 24th so we're going to
look at that past storm really quick and how it may give us an idea of what to expect with this
likely geomagnetic storm from this coronal hole high-speed stream and we'll also look at some
current space weather data just to get a sense of what the Earth energetic environment is right now
now the way I calculated this was I looked at the high speed stream velocity for that geomagnetic
storm it was about 480 kilometers per second So based on that speed and based on the distance of
the Sun away from the Earth which is a 150,000,000 kilometers that gives us a time of three days and
14 hours now this high speed stream could have changed velocity during that transit from the Sun
to the Earth because of different interplanetary magnetic field dynamics but we're keeping things
simple here just give us a rough idea of when this new geomagnetic storm might happen if it
has similar high-speed stream characteristics so here is that time three days and 14 hours before
the beginning of the G4 G magnetic storm which was on March 23rd at six in the morning UTC time
that's when it began and this is what that graph graphic looks like this is where the high speed
stream was it was wasn't directly earth center it was still rotating to being Earth direct but
that high speed stream of course follows along a Parker spiral so it doesn't need to be exactly
Earth direct so that's what it looked like for the March 23rd and 24th G4 G magnetic storm and
this is a southern hemisphere coronal hole too so there are differences between this coronal
hole and the one that recently opened up you can see it just beginning to open up there on
the 23rd so we had a little bit of an idea that it was coming but it really didn't start to you
know expand until about the 25th 26th now if we were to go and look at the new coronal hole in
the same position as the one that just gave us our G4 geomagnetic storm you can see same
longitude there you can see this the coronal hole starting to decrease that same position is about
March 26 at 1600 UTC so actually it's around the same time in terms of UTC just different dates
and different latitude dude so this is right around the magnetic equator which goes to show
you that the sun is really starting to increase in its activity due to its magnetic flip because
coronal holes are created where the outside of the sun is lower temperature the corona so it shows
up as darker and that's because field lines are bulging out from the Sun and you don't get field
lines magnetic field lines bulging out from the center of the Sun at the equatorial region unless
the solar dynamo is really undergoing a dramatic reorganization like happens during a solar cycle
and that solar magnetic flip so this is more typical to see a coronal hole like in the Southern
Hemisphere or the Northern Hemisphere here we get one right the equator which could give it unique
dynamics now we have the Russell-McPherron effect in play which in general is basically that because
the magnetic dipole is lined up differently in relation to the interplanetary magnetic field
you have stronger G magnetic storm potential if the interplanetary magnetic field has a strong
Southward facing component this is a Bz you can see that they're in red if the Bz component goes
strongly negative then it's able to couple and connect to the Earth's geomagnetic field my past
couple videos I've talked about this so I suggest you give those a watch during this period of time
from the Spring Equinox to around mid April there are stronger potentials for geomagnetic activity
overall because of this aligning of Earth's dipole to the interplanetary magnetic field
now this is interplanetary magnetic field we're going to look at some of this data live from NOAA
in just a second but I want to give you a sense of how it propagates outward these are Parker spirals
so as the sun rotates it emits its solar wind and streams of different densities and velocities and
it forms this spiral-like structure that radiates outward across the solar system then at the very
edge of the solar system it actually piles up magnetic fields pile and compress up form
these magnetic bubbles here we're looking top down going all the way out to Pluto you can
see the sun is emitting a whole bunch of coronal mass ejections there which then form into these
larger Parker spirals but overall you can see there that Parker spiral being created and how
it propagates out and sometimes it links the planets together which allows for energetic
particle transfer between one plant to another some very interesting things there which I'm
going to talk about in future videos so if we go to our current data this is our electron flux f
after our last geomagnetic storm which you can see right here there's a strong Southward facing
component very high interplanetary magnetic field values going to about 20 Nanotesla (nT) that's a
strong geomagnetic storm that's a classification and we can turn on our Kp index so you can see
that too you can see it really show up there in our Kp index there's your geomagnetic storm
strongest in six years when you have a geomagnetic storm it empties out the electrons the very high
energy electrons the mega electron volt electrons out of the radiation belts it seems to push them
out or at least accelerate to accelerate them to different areas but then these relativistic
electrons are increased and enhanced in these outer radiation belts most often sometimes by
many orders of magnitude so you can see here the electrons these two MeV or greater electrons in
the outer electron belt were underneath this threshold and then during the storm they
went down and went down quite a lot even down to like 10 to the one and now they're elevated even
during the quiet times there we see midnight Midnight noon in soon these satellites are
slightly offset from each other you can see that they're staying very stable and Rising so with
this storm coming in around March 30th we are going to have stronger electric Potentials in
the radiation belts when that high speed stream arrives and we really don't know what that means
because there's still a lot that we're learning about the near-earth energetic environment
we are starting to see x-ray flux move around a little bit Yeah so we're seeing
a some x-ray activity go up this is of course our...well let's go to the seven day
yeah you can see it now starting to really increase this is our geomagnetic storm right
here x-ray flux went down because of the high speed stream but we're starting to see this
rise up a little bit nothing super significant I would say but what we may see with this very
likely incoming high-speed stream and potential geomagnetic storm is again a decrease in the
vertical component that Bz going Southward if it goes Southward strongly then it connects to
the Earth's magnetosphere very strongly allowing energy transfer from the interplanetary magnetic
field environment into the Earth so this could also mean that electrons from Jupiter that are
floating around and Saturn and Galactic electrons and particles are able to flow into the Earth's
magnetosphere in addition to all these solar flux and then if the magnetic field value
there the black line the total strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high then that
just facilitates that even more so this was the environment before the geomagnetic storm on the
23rd you can see the vertical component was going up and down oscillating over zero now you can see
how steady it is the interplanetary magnetic field has been very very quiet after that storm
you can see the Kp indices are very low now and what's interesting is that the density is actually
dropped all the way down to like 0.1 is just now coming back up to like 0.5 this is ions/cm3
whereas during the peak of the storm right at the beginning really it went all the way up to like
10. so that's two orders of magnitude difference and we're seeing the speeds increase and then
they drop down quite a bit there so we have some interesting dynamics at play and we likely have a
geomagnetic storm in route for the 30th of March I would say plus or minus two days because we don't
know the velocity of this high speed stream yet it could be different than the last one it almost
certainly is that we don't know how different but that is likely to be the case and there are some
notable sunspots on the earth facing side of the sun those magnetic fields appear to be stable
according to the forecasters and space weather Specialists who track this but the sun is anything
but stable if you see that time and time again so the fact that there are so many sunspots now
lined up in front of us I can actually show you that really quickly if I go to the synoptic map
you see all the sun spots here we get three two six zero three two six five six fours over there
six two I mean this this disc right here is just loaded with potential activity so we could get a
solar flare coronal mass ejection there's a lot that could happen over the next few days before
this high speed stream impacts the Earth so I wanted to give you this quick update because I
know all of you are interested in this and right now it's very very Dynamic so I felt
obligated to do that today was my day off but of course I don't rest when things are active
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