The Democratic Republic of Congo has earned an unenviable reputation as one of
the world's most dangerous and unstable countries.
Over the last 30 years, it's been marred in a
perpetual cycle of conflict and violence that's left millions dead and displaced.
Throughout that time, Rwanda has been a critical actor.
This was again highlighted by a recent UN report
that accused Kigali of supporting an insurgency in eastern Congo.
So, what exactly lies behind the long-standing conflict between the DRC and Rwanda?
And is a new war really possible, as some have suggested?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay,
and here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
Conflicts are, by their very nature, complex.
However, we tend to think of them in one of two ways.
On the one hand, we have interstate wars - the traditional armed conflicts between two countries.
Then we have intrastate conflicts, otherwise known as civil wars,
where competing factions within the country come to blows.
However, the lines between the two forms of warfare are often blurred.
What starts as a civil war in one country
can sometimes become a proxy conflict for outside parties.
Or a civil war within a country can spill over and spark a conflict in,
or with, a neighbouring state.
One of the best and most tragic examples is the Democratic Republic of Congo, the DRC.
Having been plunged into a brutal war when it was first created, 30 years later it again
became marred in the devastating conflict that would eventually drag in many of its neighbours.
And while a peace deal was eventually signed at the turn of the millennium,
the country has rarely found peace.
But one country has stood out above all others as a protagonist at the events in Congo: Rwanda.
Despite being a fraction of its neighbour's size,
it's played a massive part in the developments in the DRC.
This was again highlighted in 2023 when a
UN expert panel blamed it for destabilising its neighbour.
So, what exactly is happening? And why?
The Democratic Republic of Congo lies at the heart of Africa.
Nine countries surround it.
To its south are Zambia and Angola, and the Republic of Congo lies to its West.
To its north are the Central African Republic and South Sudan,
and to its east are Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania, and Rwanda.
At 2.3 million square kilometres or 900 000 square miles, it's the 11th largest
country in the world and the second largest in Africa, after Algeria.
Its population is believed to be around 100 million,
making it the fourth most populous state on the continent after Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt.
In contrast to the DRC, Rwanda is tiny in every way at just 26 300 square
kilometres or 10 200 square miles it's barely one per cent the size of Congo,
and it's the 144th largest member of the UN.
Likewise, its population is a mere fraction of its neighbour's, standing at just 13.5 million.
While the Congo and the African Great Lakes region are renowned for their natural beauty and
diverse wildlife, it's an area that has a tragic history of exploitation, abuse, and conflict.
But while the region has a rich indigenous history,
our story really starts in the late 19th century with the European scramble for Africa.
While Germany moved in to what is now Tanzania, Burundi, and Rwanda, Belgium took control of
the Congo, thus marking the start of what would become a genuinely horrific period of
colonial rule marked by atrocities as well as systematic and wide-scale human rights abuses.
Following on from this, with the start of the First World War,
Belgium moved in to seize control of the neighbouring German territory of Ruanda-Urundi.
However, unlike the Congo, which remained a Belgian Colony, this was formally administered
under a League of Nations mandate, later becoming a UN trust territory after the Second World War.
But even though the new territory was officially separate from the Congo,
Belgian colonial rule was no less brutal.
On top of this a policy of divide and rule was implemented between
the main local ethnic groups in the territory the Hutu and the Tutsi.
This would all have a devastating effect
when Belgium finally ended its colonial rule over the region.
In 1960, it granted Independence to the Congo.
This was followed, two years later, by Rwanda-Urundi, which was now separated
into two states: the Hutu-dominated Republic of Rwanda and the Tutsi-ruled Kingdom of Burundi.
From the start, all three countries would face huge problems.
The Democratic Republic of Congo - not to be confused with its neighbour,
the Republic of Congo, which had been under French colonial rule - was woefully
unprepared for independence and was immediately plunged into a brutal two-and-a-half-year civil
war as the resource-rich province of Katanga tried, and eventually failed, to break away.
Then, in 1965, the Congolese government was overthrown by
Joseph Mobutu, the commander of the army.
Over the following decades, the country,
which was renamed Zaire in 1971, became increasingly impoverished and corrupt as
Mobutu plundered its resources and cemented his rule through a brutal one-party dictatorship.
All the while, neighbouring Rwanda and Burundi also faced huge problems.
In Rwanda, tensions grew as the Belgian-supported Tutsi regime
gave way to majority who took control after independence - leading many Tutsi to flee.
Meanwhile, in neighbouring Burundi, where the Tutsi remained in power,
a Hutu-led rebellion in 1972 saw government forces murder what's
now believed to be up to 300 000 Hutu in what many call a forgotten genocide.
All this would eventually come together in the mid-1990s.
Despite facing numerous plots and insurgencies, Mobutu had remained in power for 30 years,
largely propped up by the West due to his anti-communist stance during the Cold War.
But as the Soviet Union collapsed, and the East-West confrontation ended, his power weakened.
But the catalyst for his downfall would, in fact, come from neighbouring Rwanda.
In April 1994, after growing tensions between the majority Hutu and the minority Tutsi,
the country's Hutu president was assassinated.
This then sparked a genocide that left over 800
000 Tutsi dead before Tutsi-led Rebel forces managed to overthrow the government.
As the remnants of the ruling Hutu regime fled across the border into
Zaire they began to regroup with Mobutu's support.
This in turn saw Rwanda and its then close ally,
Uganda, throw their support behind a leading Congolese political opponent, Laurent Kabila.
This would culminate in a full-scale invasion of
the DRC in October 1996 and the start of what's now known as the First Congo War.
However, it would be a short conflict.
By May 1997, Mobutu's forces had been defeated and he fled the country,
dying in exile just months later.
Having taken control, Kabila immediately restored the country's name to the Democratic
Republic of Congo; signalling an end to the three decades of Mobutu's dictatorial rule.
But hopes that the country would return to democracy and stability proved to be short-lived.
As well as facing criticism over his authoritarian approach,
many Congolese push back against the foreign influence in the country.
As a result, Kabila ordered Rwandan and Ugandan forces to leave.
Refusing to do so, the two countries, joined by their neighbour, Burundi, now turned on Kabila.
And it was at this point that the conflict proliferated as kabila managed to win over
new allies from neighboring states, including Angola, Chad, Namibia, Sudan, and Zimbabwe,
with Rwanda and Uganda also turning on each other,
the conflict would eventually become known as the Great War of Africa, or Africa's World Wa.
And while peace talks held in 1999 saw the establishment of a UN peacekeeping mission,
fighting nevertheless continued.
Ultimately, however, the conflict ended when
Kabila was assassinated in 2001 and replaced by his son, Joseph.
This opened the way for another peace process,
and the following year the sides finally agreed to end the war.
Although the effects of the conflict were devastating, costing well over three and
a half million lives, the country soon appeared to be recovering.
Under a transitional government led by Kabila, foreign troops soon began to
depart, and the insurgents also began to be integrated into the Congolese armed forces.
And in 2006 Kabila was re-elected as president.
But while the country's economy now started to improve,
many underlying political problems remained.
Within several years, Kabila began to be accused of corruption and subverting democracy.
As a result, international observers called into question the results of the next
presidential elections, which were held in 2011, and which again saw Kabila re-elected to office.
However, it was over in the east of the country - in the provinces of North and South Kivu,
on the border with Rwanda - that the country faced its most severe challenges.
Although the war had officially been over for a
decade, numerous insurgent groups continued to fight in the region,
either for control of its vital resources or against the Congolese or Rwandan governments.
The most important of these groups emerged in 2012 when
mutinous Congolese soldiers formed a new militia, M23.
Crucially, the militia comprised mainly of Congolese Tutsi was supported by the
Rwanda government, which was still fighting distant Hutu groups based in the region.
However, this support was quickly halted.
Amidst growing reports of mass atrocities committed by the group, the United States
and the European Union quickly put pressure on Rwanda to cut its ties to the group.
As a result, a peace deal was reached in 2013 that saw the Congolese government commit to key
security sector reforms and to integrate M23 members back into the national armed forces.
All this would have a marked effect.
While many other Insurgent groups continued to operate in the East including offshoots of his
Islamic State and the Lord's resistance Army, a fundamentalist Christian group
originating in Uganda, the intensity of fighting dropped significantly.
Meanwhile, in 2018, the DRC went to the polls again and in the first free and fair power
transfer in the country's 60-year history Felix Tshisekedi became the country's new president.
But as the DRC prepares to hold its next presidential elections, in late 2023,
concerns are again growing about the security situation over in the East.
So, what lies behind the latest worries?
In truth, the roots of the problem can be traced back to November 2021.
Amidst claims that the DRC government had failed to reintegrate M23 fighters
back into the national army, the group resumed its activities.
This soon saw it take control of significant territory in the east in a series of offensive
operations that left hundreds dead and forced two hundred thousand to flee from their homes.
More to the point, accusations by the Congolese government that Rwanda was
supporting the group - again a claim that was fiercely rejected by the
Rwandan government - were later supported by an expert UN panel.
In a report published in August 2022, the group of experts accused Rwanda of not only aiding M23,
but also claimed that Rwandan troops were operating in the DRC.
In an effort to defuse the growing crisis,
the East African Community - the seven-member political grouping that includes both the DRC
and Rwanda - convened talks later that year that saw M23 agree to a ceasefire.
However, despite hopes that this would reduce tensions, the latest report of the UN group,
published in June 2023, insisted that Rwanda was still supporting M23.
While the Rwandan government has yet again angrily denied the claims,
the report has since been endorsed by all three Western members at the
UN Security Council: Britain, France, and the United States.
Naturally, all this has led to growing speculation as to
whether a new war could be on the horizon between the DRC and Rwanda.
Of course, in one sense they're already at war as their armed
forces and proxies continue to fight each other in the region.
But the hope is that international pressure may prevent this from escalating further.
In the meantime, regardless of whether it becomes a formal Interstate war again,
with well over 100 militias still operating in and around the border between the DRC and
Rwanda, Eastern Congo remains one of the most dangerous and unstable war zones on the planet.
I hope you found that useful. If so, here are some
more videos on conflict and security in Africa that you might find helpful.
Thanks so much for watching, and see you in the next video