Alright, I think we can just about call Indonesia as the next location for a giga
factory. The government have offered Tesla a proposal for an EV plant there
with annual production capacity of 500,000 units. I see it very
likely this deal going through and likely to break ground shortly after.
Ok, I called this one, you gotta give
me the credit on that, and that's reassuring. I said that Tesla would build a full EV plant there,
not just cell or cathode plant. I said that because I felt that was my understanding of
how this company works, from what Elon has said in the past. Keeping all manufacturing local,
sourcing locally, producing every part of the car locally, rather than sending parts
back and forth around the world. I feel like to understand this company's future the best,
you just play it back to the overall mission, and truly relate to what Tesla are attempting
to do here. Tesla is laying down the global infrastructure of energy and transport. In clean,
abundant, low cost forms. With processes in place for it to potentially last centuries. Or
hopefully long enough until we discover something even more revolutionary, like blue energy cells.
With abundant energy, and no oil scarcity, it increases the odds of the world living in peace
for that much longer. The longer we are in peace time, the further we can innovate, increasing our
odds of leveling up the human race, and becoming things like a multi-planetary species. Seriously,
look at all of these Elon Musk ventures, how boring would the future of humanity be without
them? It would be a frightening future. The fact that we have Elon's start ups to change the world
on levels we couldn't even fathom to start with, let alone seeing them actually manifest.
Anyway, a factory on every continent we are told. Although Indonesia is officially in Asia,
it is really Asia Pacific, which serves the Oceania continent too. Australia might have been
another potential location, again a commodity rich country, particularly with nickel too. Australia
even have human capital in building autos. I guess Indonesia gave Tesla a better offer.
This deal will obviously go ahead.
I would have said that anyway, but on top of that we have seen how popular
the Model Y is in Australia. Australia is a reasonably large new car market,
especially given a relatively small population. They buy nearly a million new cars a year. It's
not uncommon for Australians or New Zealanders to be spending $100 a week at the pump. $5,000
a year. On top of that a lot of Australians have solar power on their roofs. Implying their
battery charging bill is going to be negligible compared to gasoline, or petrol as they call it.
If you have 5 years of gas savings at $5,000 a year, then that's a $25,000 saving. Implying you
could easily justify spending an additional $25,000 to get a Tesla over an ICE vehicle.
The biggest market
in this area is going to be Japan, assuming Tesla don't also export some of these vehicles to China.
Almost 5 million new cars a year sold in Japan, they are however mainly Japanese cars. But the
Japanese still buy plenty of European cars too, and would likely start buying Teslas over BMW.
Indonesia is
a part of ASEAN, Association of Southeast Asian Nations,
a political and economic union in Southeast Asia, consisting of 10 nations including Thailand,
Singapore, Philipines and Malaysia. This would therefore facilitate commerce between the nations,
whether for sourcing materials or selling vehicles to these markets, it is certainly beneficial.
Now although I have suggested
that the dedicated Robotaxi will possibly be made here, this first factory will not be the Robotaxi
factory. It doesn't align with the timelines for Robotaxi. This could be a test factory,
perhaps Tesla will see how well things go in Indonesia, and then decide to expand with the
Robotaxi factory after. Or it may already be on the plans. And then I have theories about
Indonesia potentially being the first market for the dedicated robotaxis. Now remember, I am just
saying the dedicated robotaxis. Potentially the US could have Model 3 and Y Robotaxis earlier.
But this all depends on your views on when FSD and Robotaxis will actually be up and running.
I am not credible enough in AI to have an opinion, I also can't get FSD Beta to test
it out first hand. There are plenty of people more credible on FSD than me, which is why,
in case you hadn't noticed, I don't talk about it too much,
or do company valuations based on FSD and Robotaxis. I can value this company
from auto sales alone to know it's going to be big. Everything else is just a massive bonus.
Those in the community that do specialize in beta testing, or AI,
seem quite bullish on FSD. Also the ones who know the most, Tesla, are making massive multi-billion
dollar moves on it coming into fruition over the next couple of years. Personally I am of
the belief it can be done in a couple of years. But I am happy with my investment either way.
What vehicles do we
expect from this factory then? Well I think it's obviously going to be similar to Berlin and Texas,
we will see the new 4680 Model Y come out of here. We will just assume it is a 4680 Model Y,
and likely the same specifications, although we don't entirely know what they are yet.
Of course we wouldn't expect Tesla to stop at one factory.
This will be built out with numerous fabs, like Shanghai, and like Berlin and Texas will be.
It is highly possible a model 3 factory will be built here. A 4680 Model 3, although I would also
expect it to be a medium range, perhaps low 300 miles, as to not compete with the Long Range,
Performance or standard. I would say it would come in at that sweet spot again.
It is starting to get difficult to keep consistent products with so many different
variations of batteries and in different markets too. I expect Tesla to eventually
consolidate factories and cell types, when cell production is more established.
I don't think the Cybertruck would be produced in Indonesia, there may not be the market for
it. However, there is the possibility that the semi truck is produced here.
I am not really sure. I think it most likely to be produced nearer the target market, which will
be the US to start with. It's a really big heavy item to have to ship across the Pacific ocean.
On the other hand the semi trucks need a ridiculous amount of nickel,
which Indonesia has. So not entirely sure.
Now it would
seem Tesla are going their 500,000 units a year figure again that they like to use.
Same alleged capacity for Berlin, similar in Texas for the Model Y
too. Likely one car around 45 seconds claimed. And we have been here before haven't we? Then
I remind you that Giga Berlin has about a 65% larger footprint than the Giga Shanghai Model
Y factory. Not to mention front castings and structural battery pack production eventually.
And we were told that the Shanghai Model Y factory would have a capacity of 200k a
year. When they are now almost at that rate a quarter. This was some serious evidence of
sandbagging. There is no way you can under estimate the factory capacity by 3 times.
So we jump to the conclusion that Berlin is also being sandbagged judging by the
size of it. And sure Texas too. Besides if these factories are only doing 500k a year,
that is not going to be enough for the mission. Generally, a lot of the community tends to
think that these factories are going to be closer to 2 million capacity.
Elon has also talked about how intends on increasing the production line speed.
Make no mistake this is
another Giga Factory. I think something similar in size to Berlin, possibly smaller now, due to
more improvements, but also potentially with the battery factory built inside.
This would usually move the stock perhaps 5% or so. And if in reality it ends up being close to 2
million units a year produced, then that could be about an extra $20 billion in profit a year,
if Tesla made a net profit of $10,000 per vehicle. Now if the other 4 factories all closed down,
and this was the only factory up and running, then at today's market valuation,
at least at the time of this video, that would give Tesla a p/e ratio of just 35.
I think it's important to gain some perspective in times like these. The economy is looking bad. A
lot of people are going to hurt through this. But hopefully you were financially savvy and prepared
for this. But try and keep the market doom and gloom away from your outlook for Tesla. Tesla
made it to the recession, that was the hard part. Tesla is prepared for the recession. I can't say
the same for the competition. My point is, I think Tesla is being hit extra hard in the market still,
and when you put into perspective how one new factory can potentially justify the current stock
price, and that was without even factoring in FSD. Well don't forget there are 4 other factories too.
In fact some of those factories may even be more profitable than Indonesia.
So yea, my excitement for Tesla is outweighing the doom and gloom in the markets.