WE
HAVE BREAKING NEWS, DONALD TRUMP IS THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE.
>> THEY JUST DID THE ROLLCALL QUOTE HERE AT THE RNC.
NOT
SURPRISING AFTER THE WORST POLITICAL COUP IN AMERICAN
HISTORY, WE ALL KNEW FOR A FACT THAT DONALD TRUMP WAS GOING TO
BE THE NOMINEE.
TODAY THEY MADE IT OFFICIAL.
WHETHER YOU LIKED
IT OR NOT, DONALD TRUMP WILL BE THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE.
>>THERE WERE NO BETS?
>> CENK WON SOME BETS.
>> I MADE THOSE BETS IN OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR.
>>THAT HE WOULD BE THE NOMINEE?
WOW.
>> I WANT TO GET IN ON THOSE POLITICAL BETS.
>> YOU NAILED IT, BUT I THOUGHT YOU BET THAT HE WOULD FINISH
AHEAD OF JEB BUSH.
>> ONE OF THEM WAS DONALD TRUMP VERSUS MARCO RUBIO.
THE FIELD WAS A PUSH.
>> I DON'T KNOW WE HAD THE RACE BECAUSE YOU LAID IT OUT IN THE
FREAK 16 AND IT ALL WENT ACCORDING TO PLAN.
>> LET ME EXPLAIN THAT.
I MADE A LOT OF PREDICTIONS ON THE SHOW.
PEOPLE WILL COME UP TO ME AND SAY MAKE A PREDICTION.
THAT IS
NOT HOW IT WORKS.
YOU NEED TO HAVE SOME SORT OF INFORMATION TO
BASE THAT INFORMATION ON.
WHEN WE DID THE FREAK 16, WHICH IS
THE 16 CANDIDATES AT THE TIME THAT HAD DECLARED THEIR
CANDIDACY, WE KNEW NOTHING, IT WAS JUST FUN.
I WAS TOTALLY
WRONG THERE, I PICKED RAND PAUL, BUT I DIDN'T SAY WRITE IT DOWN
IN STONE.
I SAID AT THIS TIME, I THINK RAND PAUL WOULD WIN.
HE IS
MORE OF A POPULIST,
ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT.
THE TURNS OUT I HAVE THE WRONG GUY.
BUT I
THOUGHT JEB BUSH WOULD MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY.
I HAD HIM IN THE FINALS AGAINST RAND PAUL.
OUR AUDIENCE THOUGHT JEB BUSH WOULD WIN.
>> I THOUGHT SCOTT WALKER WOULD WIN.
>> WHEN I STARTED MAKING BETS IS WHEN THERE WAS ENOUGH
INFORMATION.
WHEN TRUMP ANNOUNCED HE LOOKED LIKE A
CLOWN.
THE GUY HAS BEEN A BUFFOON WITH HIS WHOLE LIFE.
BUT
A COUPLE OF MONTHS LATER YOU GOT
A SENSE THAT NO, THIS GUY IS A POPULIST.
HE GRABBED THAT
POPULIST WAVE.
BY OCTOBER, STRENGTH.
THAT IS ALL YOU NEED
IN POLITICS.
I THOUGHT THIS GUY IS GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE.
AT
THE TIME EVERYBODY SAID IT CAN
HAPPEN.
HE IS A BUFFOON AND DID THINGS THAT WERE SO
UNCONVENTIONAL.
HE IS NOT VERY
SOPHISTICATED.
THAT IS THE BEST COMPLIMENT I HAVE EVER GIVEN
HIM.
THIS MOMENT HERE THAT WE NOW TAKE FOR GRANTED � A YEAR
AGO WAS UNTHINKABLE.
ACTUALLY A YEAR AGO I ALREADY HAD MADE
BETS. 15 MONTHS AGO IT WAS UNTHINKABLE.
>>WE GET IT, CENK.
YOU ARE GOOD AT PREDICTIONS.
NO ONE WOULD'VE
THOUGHT IT, BUT I KNEW.
>> UNQUESTIONABLY PART OF THAT.
NO ONE HAS EVER RUN A CAMPAIGN
LIKE THIS BEFORE.
THAT IS WHY IT HAS SURPRISED THE HELL OUT OF
EVERYBODY.
LET ME JUST SAY, THE MOST IMPORTANT PART IS WHY DID
HE WIN?
BECAUSE HE GOT UNCHAINED FROM THE DONORS.
IT WAS TRUMP
UNCHAINED.
THE DONORS TELL YOU THAT YOU ARE GOING TO BE FOR THE
FREE-TRADE DEALS, LOWER TAX CUTS, BUT THE REALITY IS IF YOU
DON'T HAVE THOSE DONORS TO
PLEASE � BEEN IN ANOTHER EPISODE TALKED ABOUT HOW TRUMP WAS
OBSESSED WITH THE RATINGS.
HE SAW HIS POLL NUMBERS MOVE UP
WHEN HE TALKED ABOUT ANTI-IMMIGRATION, FREE-TRADE.
WHEREAS CORPORATE INTERESTS, WANTED IMMIGRATION REFORM AND
THOSE TRADE DEALS.
>>IF HIS NUMBERS DIDN'T RISE AFTER HE SAID HE WOULD BUILD A
WALL, HE WOULD NOT HAVE SAID IT
AGAIN.
>> THE DONORS ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE EFFECT.
THEY
ALSO DO BUSINESS WITH HILLARY
CLINTON.
>> WHAT THEY DON'T WANT IS FOR ANYONE TO ROCK THE BOAT, BECAUSE
THAT BOAT IS THEIR YACHT.
SO WHEN
DONALD TRUMP DID WHAT HE
DID LAST NIGHT AND BRINGS UP THE BENGHAZI MOB, AND IN A SENSE OF
VICTIMIZING HER AGAIN LIKE TAKING HER GRIEVING AND USING IT
AS A POLITICAL TOOL AGAINST HILLARY CLINTON, IF HE WAS
ATTACHED TO DONORS THEY WOULD'VE SAID DON'T DO THAT.
IN FACT WHEN
RUBIO AND TED CRUZ FOUGHT BACK
AGAINST TRUMP IN THE HANDS DEBATE, THERE DONORS ARE THE
ONES THAT SAID DON'T DO THAT, THAT IS NOT CIVIL AND PULLED HIM
BACK.
SO WHEN YOU ARE NOT ATTACHED TO DONORS YOU CAN RUN A
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CAMPAIGN THAT IS ACTUALLY TRYING TO
APPEAL TO THE VOTERS RIGHT OR WRONG.
WE THINK DONALD TRUMP IS
APPEALING TO THE LOWEST INSTINCTS, BUT I TELL YOU NOW
ALL OF THIS TO TELL YOU THAT IF HE IS STILL RUNNING THAT KIND OF
CAMPAIGN AND THE OTHER SIDE IS RUNNING A CAMPAIGN BASED ON
APPEALING TO DONORS AND NOT
VOTERS, WATCH OUT.
IF YOU THOUGHT DONALD TRUMP 13 MONTHS
AGO COULDN'T WIN, AND NOW EVERY PUNDIT IS TELLING YOU DON'T
WORRY HE CAN'T WIN THE PRESIDENCY, THEY ARE NOT RIGHT.
I'M NOT SAYING HE'S GOING TO WIN, I'M SAYING HE DEFINITELY
CAN WIN.
>>NOT EVERYONE IS SAYING HE CAN'T WIN.
FOR EXAMPLE THE GUY
YOU AND I ARGUE WITH THINK THERE IS A 37% CHANCE THAT HE CAN WIN.