Of all the jurisdictions in the world, there is one jurisdiction
that is following what is happening in Ukraine with special attention,
every minute, every day, and that is none other than Taiwan.
An island that seems to be ticking all the boxes
for becoming the next protagonist of a major international crisis.
With the protection of the United States for more than 70 years, Taiwan has lived on the
fringes of the Chinese regime, but always with the latent threat that one day Beijing
might ultimately try to invade the island. Of course, this hypothesis, this possibility
could trigger a conflict that would go far beyond an armed clash on a regional scale.
It would be the first time since the Vietnam War that the US and China could potentially
face off in a theater of operations... Or at least that's the usual impression one gets,
if only from statements like these: The question is, what could happen
if the conflict in Taiwan finally erupts? Would China succeed in taking control of this island?
Let's get started.
We have mentioned this lot of times: Taiwan's situation is one of the most
ambiguous in international politics. Particularly because the sovereignty
of this island has undergone constant changes. For example, and this may surprise you, when the
Sino-Japanese war of 1895 ended, the Qing Empire ceded the island in perpetuity to Japan. That is,
formally, the island of Formosa, Taiwan, ceased to be China. And so, for the next 50 years
this island was part of the Empire of Japan. Of course, Tokyo's defeat in the second World War
again brought about a turn of events. The island once again became part of the then Republic of
China, a country ruled by a military dictatorship and somewhat aligned with the United States.
However, when the revolution of Mao Zedong and company succeeded in 1949,
the authoritarian regime of the Republic of China was exiled to Taiwan.
Since then, the island has been considered by Beijing as a kind of "rebel province". An
island that is fully autonomous and functions in practice as a sovereign country, but which,
however, has never been able to declare its independence.
Firstly because its government considered itself the legitimate government of China,
and later because Beijing has said ad nauseam, again and again,
that any declaration of independence would be considered an act of war.
And so it has been molded in this way, a country that over recent decades has
experienced an important economic, technological and, also, democratic success. In political and
social terms, Taiwan has become the freest territory on the entire Asian continent.
The problem... China's appetite is getting bigger and bigger. And, if the war in Ukraine has shown
us anything, it is that the territorial claims of the major powers are once again
a feasible scenario for military conflict. The question is, will Taiwan become the new
Ukraine? What would a Chinese invasion of the island look like? Who would be involved and
what would be the possible outcomes? Well, stick with me to find out.
TWO STARTING POINTS) The first thing
to keep in mind is that in the hypothesis of a war between the United States and China in Taiwan,
both sides have a completely different view of the situation... This reveals
some key points to keep in mind. For Beijing, the Taiwan issue is a
strictly domestic one. Since the island belonged to the Republic of China and the Mao revolution
replaced that for the current communist regime – the People's Republic of China – from their
point of view, Taiwan is a Chinese province with a de facto degree of special autonomy.
In other words, Xi Jinping's government considers that any military operation would not be a clash
between countries, but an event relating to China's internal territorial order.
And, keep in mind that it’s this position that explains Beijing's growing belligerence towards
any foreign group meddling on the island. They see it as a kind of humiliation. A feeling that has
been reinforced by years of communist propaganda. (9 October 2021: China's Xi vows 'reunification'
with Taiwan. – Reuters) For its part, however,
the United States maintains a commitment to Taiwan that is not entirely compatible with
this position: in the Taiwan Relations Act enacted on 10 April 1979, the United States
made an unwavering commitment to this territory: ("The United States shall make available to Taiwan
such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to
maintain sufficient self-defense capabilities" – Section 3 of the Taiwan Relations Act).
In other words, the law makes it very clear: Taiwan must be able to defend itself against
any attempt of aggression... And the United States will be responsible should this situation occur.
In fact, there doesn't seem to be much point in talking about Taiwan's defense except with the
US. Why? Well... Look at this. DAVID VS. GOLIATH?)
The first question we have to answer is.... If China eventually does decide to invade Taiwan,
which countries would be involved in the conflict?
And take note because this is where the key point of US diplomacy comes
into play: strategic ambiguity. For years, at least officially,
Washington has never made it clear whether or not it would intervene in that possible
conflict. And it has not done so in order to create a double deterrent: on the one hand,
the latent threat of US intervention could prevent China from deciding to invade the
island. On the other hand, the uncertainty also does not allow Taipei to be overly aggressive,
for example, by declaring its independence. This is the approach that, according to
many analysts, has succeeded in maintaining peace for decades.
However, things are evolving, the Chinese military is increasingly
prepared and if the war in Ukraine has made anything clear, it is that the strategy of
strategic ambiguity could end up being Xi Jinping's excuse to pounce on his prey.
That is to say, if at any given moment, top Chinese officials thought that the
United States might not come to Taiwan's rescue and may settle, for instance,
with the application of sanctions, then that might be the best fuse for unleashing an invasion.
This is similar to what happened with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin
and his entourage felt that when push came to shove, no one would lift a finger for Kyiv.
And that is what explains why Joe Biden has intentionally "confused" himself not once, not
twice, but three times, making it clear that the United States would come to the aid of its ally.
In other words, Washington has not changed its formal position, but the president wanted to
make clear the position of the White House. Perhaps it has a lot to do with the fact that
the advanced semiconductor industry has made Taiwan an absolutely strategic enclave for
the United States. American companies, American technology, and it doesn't matter whether we're
talking about artificial intelligence, Amazon or the F35, they all need chips made by TSMC.
[I don't know for certain but I'm sure that further
supports the resolve of the United States]. But why is the position of American power so
important? Well, basically because American power is Taipei's only asset. Why? Well, take a look.
The de-correlation of forces between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China has continued to
grow over time. If the Chinese armed forces have traditionally been a poorly equipped,
poorly trained and poorly capable army, the situation is very different today.
The People's Republic of China is making an enormous effort to improve its military
capabilities, including the launching of six new aircraft carriers, 5th generation fighters,
new amphibious capabilities and thousands and thousands of missiles aimed at Taiwan.
Yes, it is true that Taiwan concentrates its military spending on protecting a much smaller
territory: 36,000km2 compared to more than 9 million. But China is directing the bulk
of its military investments towards maritime dominance in the region,
including the ability to invade Taiwan. In fact, the widening gap in forces
may be the reason Taiwan has reduced its military effort over the past few decades:
The idea that a China that is more open to the world could eliminate any risk of
invasion and that ultimately everything will depend on the US position is perhaps
what explains charts like this one: Now, this is something that could
begin to change, but the truth is that without international assistance, Taiwan would have a very
difficult time resisting an invasion by China. (17 June 2022: China launches the most advanced
aircraft carrier on the planet outside the US. China strikes a new military blow with its new
aircraft carrier type 003. – El Confidencial) (15 April 2023: Taiwan highly vulnerable to
Chinese air attack, leaked documents show Troubling details raise questions about
U.S. intelligence agencies' ability to detect a pending invasion and the island's
capacity to defend itself. – Washington Post) Now, let's suppose that, because of X or Y,
everything finally goes wrong, things get out of control and the conflict explodes: What could
happen? What would be the balance of forces? Would any of the contenders clearly impose themselves?
Well... Let’s take a look. (T3. WAR GAMES)
What could happen if war ultimately does break out in Taiwan? It is not such a far-fetched
hypothesis, so in Washington it is something they take very, very seriously. Precisely
for this reason, several US research and defense centers have carried out simulations to find out
how this possible conflict would develop. In virtually all cases it is taken for
granted that US forces would participate, otherwise Taiwan's defeat would be certain.
Well, let's take, for example, as a starting point the simulation carried out by the Center
for Strategic and International Studies, a leading Washington-based think tank.
In order to carry out this simulation, all possible air and naval actions were taken into
account, as well as all historical precedents with amphibious missions, from Normandy,
to Okinawa, to the Falkland Islands. The results? Well... Take a look.
In most scenarios, the United States, Taiwan and Japan would succeed in defeating China's
conventional amphibious invasion and maintain Taiwan's autonomy. However,
this defense would come at a high cost. The United States and its allies would lose dozens of ships,
hundreds of aircraft and suffer tens of thousands of casualties. Just think, the US would have to
fight thousands of miles away against a Chinese military that would be playing on home soil.
For its part, Taiwan's economy would be devastated by the destruction of much of its infrastructure,
of course China would also suffer great losses and the failure of
the operation could end up destabilizing the Chinese Communist Party government.
The results of this simulation show that only when Taiwan is left alone would China
succeed in taking control of the island. However, even in this scenario, Taiwanese
resistance could extend the invasion by 70 days. Okay, I know what some of you are thinking:
There you go again, VisualPolitik, propagandizing for the imperialist dominance of Uncle Sam! Well,
we are not doing it now, nor have we ever done it before.
In fact, these drills are anything but encouraging for the United States.
In the simulation, even the best-case scenario entails extremely significant
losses for the United States and Japan, as well as major economic repercussions.
In other words: no matter what the outcome, no one would win. Any Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan
would be a disaster for all parties. But that's not all.
The results of this simulation warn of three more than possible risks:
Firstly, the damage caused by cyber attacks could cause significant economic and social
damage in the United States itself. Secondly, the damage sustained by US
military forces could be difficult to replace. Rebuilding capability could take years, while
China, a country endowed with greater industrial capacity, could take advantage of such a scenario
to turn the tables. It would be something of a Pyrrhic victory for the United States.
Thirdly, countries such as Russia, North Korea and Iran could take advantage of
this distraction and drain on US resources to accelerate their political agendas.
In other words, even if the United States could avoid Taiwan's annexation today,
the potential risks would be very high. Sometimes in war, winning is not everything.
History teaches us important lessons in this regard. For example, in 1919,
after the signing of the Treaty of Versailles, French Marshal Ferdinand Foch expressed his
concern about the outcome of the first World War, "We have signed a 20-year armistice."
The Marshal considered that despite having won the war, France had been seriously
decimated and could be vulnerable to a German rearmament in the not too distant future. Well,
the simulations suggest that something very similar could happen to the United States.
And, keep in mind that the consequences of this issue could become much more complex...
Even without the outbreak of war as we all conceive it. In January 2022,
another think tank, the Center for a New American Security,
ran a simulation to see what might happen to the semiconductor industry.
The results were not optimistic.
Similarly, in June 2022, this same think tank also conducted a simulation of how
the war might unfold. In this case, just before the invasion,
the dilemma facing Beijing would be whether to concentrate exclusively on Taiwan and avoid
attacking US forces in the hope that they would stand aside or, on the other hand,
attack the Americans to gain military advantage and try to force a negotiation.
The curious thing is that according to this simulation, in the end China would
choose to attack Taiwan in parallel to an offensive on nearby US bases.
And guess what? The Chinese military is known to be training to attack the US fleet. For example,
as you can see in these images taken in a desert in Xinjiang province, the Chinese are
using targets that recreate Nimitz-class aircraft carriers and other US warships for their military
missile training. Is this a huge red flag? In fact, according to the simulations we
are discussing, one of China's options would be to avoid attacking Taiwan with missiles,
so as not to seriously damage its technological industry, and instead detonate a nuclear device
in the Pacific to intimidate the Americans and force negotiations.
This would also explain the recent rush Xi Jinping seems to be in to build many more
nuclear weapons. In other words, if they are really willing to use such a threat,
for it to be credible and have an effect it has to be backed up by the strongest possible force.
(China already surpasses the U.S. in ground-based nuclear offensive capability.
China already has more ground-based nuclear missile launchers than the United States,
although it has not yet surpassed it in total number of nuclear warheads. – El Confidencial)
(China likely to have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035: Pentagon. – Reuters)
And so VisualPolitik community, in general, the result of most of the simulations that have been
conducted is that the United States would outperform China militarily, but that yes,
it would do so by paying an excessively high price for not being sufficiently prepared.
And do you know what? This is where the work of Secretary of State Antony Blinken
and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in pushing defense agreements in the
region makes all the sense in the world. It is possible that the best and, perhaps,
only effective way to deter China is for the United States to secure the support of many
more contenders: Japan, South Korea, Australia, the United Kingdom, and so on and so forth.
In other words, that in this case, the US card alone may no
longer be enough of a deterrent for China. And this leads directly to another question:
what have we learned and what have we not learned from the Ukrainian experience?
KYIV'S NON-LESSON AND INSUFFICIENT VICTORY)
One problem with Taiwan's defense is that trying to replicate what has been done in
Ukraine to prevent foreign intervention may not be feasible. The geographical situation
is completely different. I think you will be able to see the differences perfectly on these maps.
In the Ukrainian war, both the United States and the other NATO allies have sent huge quantities
of equipment and supplies by land, something that would be impossible in Taiwan because of
its island status. In this case, China could isolate the island for weeks or even months.
In fact, on 8 April, for at least three days, the Chinese military rehearsed how to conduct
a "total encirclement" of Taiwan to cut off any possibility of the United States being able to
resupply local self-defense forces. It's a strategy that is reinforced
by things like this, check it out. (22 August 2022: Current procurement
and acquisition plans reveal that in ten years, the United States will not have significantly
more forces to deploy in the region than it has now. The U.S. Navy is modernizing,
but will not have its planned fleet of between 450 and 500 ships until 2045, a fleet size that China
will have in just ten years. Foreign Affairs) Thus, any attempt to defend Taiwan has to
start with the island being prepared to repel an invasion at any time,
including having all the ammunition and supplies necessary to resist.
For its part, the United States must have the capability to rapidly deploy
troops and equipment in or around Taiwan. And do you know what? All of what we're seeing
is why Taiwan is becoming the No. 1 priority for security and defense officials, not only in their
own government but also in the US Congress. (20 April 2023: US war game against Taiwan
shows need for "decisive action" to increase armament. A US congressional war game simulating
a Chinese invasion of Taiwan showed the need to arm the island "to the teeth" [...] The
US should increase long-range missile production and companies should prepare
for the economic consequences. – Reuters) But, all of this, of the possible plan to try
to defend itself against China, we have already covered in several videos, here on VisualPolitik,
so I’ll leave you the links in the description. VisualPolitik viewers, the war in Ukraine
has shown us two things: that the unthinkable is perfectly possible,
and that the times of great military clashes have not yet been laid to rest in the history books.
The US objective is to seek ways to preserve Taiwan's independence,
and in general, the military and economic superiority of free countries
over any autocracy in the world. But in order to achieve this, it may be absolutely indispensable
to enlist strong support and allies. The question is: Can Taiwan's de facto
independence really be safeguarded? Will China be willing to take up arms? Will the United States
succeed in building a grand coalition of free countries willing to defend Taiwan’s freedom?
Leave us your answers in the comments and let's open a debate.
And now if you found this video interesting, don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe to
VisualPolitik if you haven't already done so. All the best and see you next time.