- I built a tool
to help you calculate the cost of your Model 3,
including the federal tax credit here in the U.S.
(upbeat music)
So if you just wanna go jump over to the calculator,
check the link in the description down below.
And full disclosure,
I am gonna ask you to sign up for my email list
when you use it, but you can click on the X,
and you don't have to do that if you don't want to.
The way this came to be was,
I started out with the idea of trying to estimate
when Tesla will deliver their 200,000th car in the U.S.
To figure this out,
I partnered with the team at insideevs.com,
who have some excellent data
going all the way back to when
the Model S was first released in 2012.
Since then, they've been meticulously tracking
how many EVs Tesla and others have sold in the U.S.
If you have any doubt about this data,
I suggest you check out their monthly sales scorecard
which they update regularly as new information comes out.
These guys really do their homework,
so I feel good about where the data is coming from here.
So using the data they provide in their monthly scorecard,
I was able to make a forecast model
that would predict S and X sales for the next 12 months.
Because both of these models
have been in production for a while,
this forecast should be pretty reliable.
Especially since we have data by month,
for the past five years.
On a recent earnings call, Tesla also stated that ...
So it sounds like S and X sales are doing well,
but I'm a bit skeptical
on how big of an impact this increase will be
on the number of cars that they'll sell
before the end of the year.
So with those numbers in hand,
the next piece of the puzzle
was to figure out how many Model 3s they're going to deliver
this year.
And on that same earnings call,
Tesla had some interesting things to say about this.
Now you can see this as good or bad news,
the fact that they're talking about
increased Model S and Model X sales,
as well as really good production of the Model 3.
Because if you're looking to get your Model 3 sooner,
and you're on an early schedule with them,
then that's great.
However, if you're really hoping for that full tax credit,
this could be a problem.
Take into account those statements,
and also their estimate that they are confident
we can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3,
and achieve a run rate of 5,000 vehicles
per week by the end of 2017.
My original delivery ramp is looking pretty accurate.
So when you add up the S and X projections from before
with these Model 3 projections,
I have them hitting that 200,000 mark
in late Q4 of this year.
This could be a disaster.
The way the tax credit works here in the United States,
is once a single manufacturer
hits their 200,000th car delivered--
Actually, you know, the customer has taken ownership of it,
the phase-out begins.
So all cars produced that quarter and the following,
receive the full credit.
People that take delivery in the next two quarters
get 50% of that.
Then for the last two quarters of the phase-out,
people who take delivery just get 25%
of the original $7,500 amount.
So my guess is that
Tesla will push out that 200,000th car
being delivered in the U.S. til early January.
If not, the very first day that they possibly can,
in order to maximize the tax credit benefit to us customers.
Elon even tweeted about this when asked.
And he said ...
So that's why I'm guessing that
they're gonna push out that 200,000th car
til January of 2018.
That way they can maximize that benefit
for all the people waiting for their Model 3s.
On the calculator
I wanted to make it more than just some boring numbers.
And what I ended up building
was something that is similar to the configurator.
It's a visual calculator, if you will.
On it you can pick which color of the car you want,
what wheels you wanna go with,
and any of the upgrades.
From there you click Show Me,
and a new page opens up with the results.
On this page you'll have a nice,
printable, invoice looking document,
yet something I hope you'll still find pleasure in viewing,
and maybe even printing out and hanging on your wall,
or cube, or wherever you spend most of your time.
So as you can see, it's pretty straightforward.
On the results you have your subtotal,
any tax credit that I'm estimating you'll receive,
and then your final price.
But the final price doesn't include things like tax,
title, docking fees,
or any other State benefits that you may receive,
like we receive here in California.
So if you enjoyed this video, please consider subscribing.
Just click the link down below.
And if you're already a part of the family,
go ahead and give it a big thumbs up.
Also if you'd rather have this delivered to your email,
you can get on our email list at teslanomics.co.
And don't forget, when you free the data,
your mind will follow.
Thanks for watching.