Is the world reaching peak meat?
In 2020, slowing consumption of beef and pork
has been exacerbated by a variety of factors.
First, the coronavirus pandemic has
led to numerous closures of US and European slaughterhouses.
That's affected supply in the short-term,
but how the virus will affect the $1.4tn global market
in the longer-term remains unclear.
Before the pandemic though, meat consumption
was showing signs of having peaked in developed countries.
Thanks to health scares plus environmental
and sustainability concerns, OECD data
indicated that the US, which is still
the biggest consumer of meat per capita,
would hit a high point in 2020.
The country's consumption would then
plateau over the next decade.
A similar trend was estimated for the EU.
One country that will make a profound difference
to global meat consumption is China,
which accounts for almost a third of the total meat eaten.
China consumes about half the world's pork,
but since 2018, African swine fever
has killed more than 100m pigs there.
Cramping supply and pushing pork prices up to record highs.
But even before the outbreak, consumption
had been levelling off.
The country saw peak pork in 2014.
In fact, a 2018 report from the OECD
and the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation
suggests China's demand for meat will slow considerably
over growing health concerns and a peak in the country's
population before 2030.
The troubles facing the meat industry
haven't hurt plant-based meats prospects.
More money flowed into companies making plant-based
and cell cultured meat, eggs, and dairy
in the first quarter of 2020 than in the whole of last year.
In China, interest in alternative proteins
was already rising before the pandemic, thanks to swine flu.
Within a generation, the market for meat
could look very different.