so we still wait with bated breath for Japan's decision on whether it's going
to cut South Korea from its trade like this let's get an expert's take on the
situation and his thoughts on where this trade spot might end up heading joining
me in the studio I'm glad to see is dr. bong young-shik research fellow at
Seoul's Yonsei University thank you as always for joining us first things first
the most important question do you expect Japan's cabinet to approve
removing soul from its trade whitelist there are a lot of indications that our
baled administration is going to go ahead with a decision to remove South
Korea from the list the white list of 27 countries but the announcement is
expected to be made at 10 o'clock but announcement has not been made as we
are speaking of the issue so there might be some reconsideration by the Jabez
government depending upon the result of the you know meetings between foreign
ministers in Bangkok at the Asian Regional Forum but it seems like the
Japanese government is going to make the decision yeah we have been hearing that
perhaps in around 10 minutes time there might be some kind of announcement by
Japan's chief cabinet secretary but we'll keep an eye out for that
information for you now there are international concerns that this
expanding trade crisis between South Korea and Japan it really could end up
forcing some kind of economic decoupling between the two countries that's really
held the two countries together when there's been many occasions when they
could have really moved far apart do you think that is something that people
should be concerned about at this point you know definitely you will only not
not only damage the future economic partnership between South Korea and
Japan and also security cooperation not only between Japan and South Korea but
also the trilateral security cooperation in
the United States because the security cooperation between the just two
government South Korea and Japan has been regarded as the weakest link of the
trailer our security cooperation in Northeast Asia so this will be a big
blow to the u.s. plan to you know maintain the regional stability in
Northeast Asia the message very symbolic and clear that the RBI administration
has the revised its three principles about Export Control by Japan in recent
years one the country importing sensitive materials from Japan should
not be under the United Nations Security Council resolutions and two the decision
to about the expo controlled by Japan will be about the international peace
and the national security of Japan there must be a clear evidence that allowing
those countries to import sensitive materials from Japan will make clear
contributions to those two goals international peace and national
security attend and third one is that the country importing materials and
technology from Japan will not transfer those to third countries without
official and explicit consent by Japan I think the second and third principles
are applied to the decision by RBI administration's to potentially remove
South Korea from the list of 27 countries on the white list right
there's some speculation that South Korea has a degree of leverage in this
situation we heard from the head of South Korea's national intelligence
service he was speaking at the National Assembly on Thursday his feelings is
that it wouldn't be wise for South Korea to potentially threaten to pull out of
the Intel sharing pact that risotto Mia yeah that yes that South Korea has with
Japan and the deadline for that renewal comes up this month
you see potentially the South Korean government going that far to pull out of
that packs if Japan goes ahead with this removal from the whitelist today
considering the most recently marked by a foreign minister of South Korea Madame
Kang Yong Hwa then it is highly likely for the museum a South Korea to pull out
the of the annual renewal of G Sonia general Secura
of in a military information agreement with United States Japan but I'm afraid
they will be self-defeating because you saw Mia not only benefits United States
and you know Japan but also it renders tremendous benefits to South Korea in
dealing with North Korea as a military threat and missile and nuclear tests we
have witnessed North Korea conducting three short-range missile tests and
artilleries in the span of less than two weeks three yeah our provocations so in
the absence of G so Mia then the South Korean government cannot really justify
its claimed that the taking of South Korea from the list of the white list
will greatly damage the regional security cooperation among United States
Japan and South Korea then the blame will be on South Korea not on Japan that
South Korea's action to please herself out of the G so Mia greatly undermines
the security coordination and cooperation of three countries in
response to North Korea so I don't know whether South Korean government is ready
to take such an action which potentially makes South Korea as most responsive for
decrease your decrease of security cooperation not Japan but surely there
has to be some kind of reaction from South Korea to this should it happen
well I understand the first I understand the pressure on the moon incoming of
South Korea to do something something really strong in response to the
potential decision by our administration but you have to be really objective and
cool-headed in terms of making the decision when it
comes to your own national interest and security you have to stay with your own
rhetoric and argument that Japan's export control only on their minds
security cooperation among United States in Japan and South Korea there has been
the one of the main arguments rendered by the moon in Ghana South Korea in
response to the threat of removing South Korea from the white list but what if a
South Korea walks away from Gaeseong yeah then even the United States would
regard that as a lack of support and commitment to high level of security
coordination among all three countries yeah then South Korean government may do
something that would undermine its own claim right well that's certainly
something that the South Korean government is thinking about very very
carefully I'm sure we've been reporting for a couple of weeks now how South
Koreans are expanding this boycott of everything Japanese we've seen sales of
Japanese cars beer and other products and South Koreans canceling their trips
to Japan as a result of these trade curbs and whatnot do you think there
would be a widening boycott should Tokyo take South Korea off this white list and
do you think this kind of economic pressure being put on Japan by the South
Korean public could possibly prompt Japan to rethink its current position I
think there is a very serious recognition of the blowback of the
decision in terms of damaging the economic cooperation between the
countries inside Japan but at the same time I think the situation is beyond the
hands of individual citizens and corporations I think the solution lies
in the hands of table leadership's on both sides everyone on both sides knows
that this is not about national security of Japan this is now about Export
Control this is about different opinions on interpreting the 1965 you know
normalization of women within that countries
especially whether the individual rights to claim against Japanese individual
corporations are still alive or has been nullified by signing of the 1965
agreement so in the absence of any agreement at the level of top
leadership's on both sides I don't think the economic measures and retaliations
including the entire Japanese product movements among South Korean in a
producer and consumers would not really bring to bring an end to this current
situation yeah this is basically political yeah situation yeah I think
you got to the very heart of it there it all comes down to the interpretation of
that 1965 treaty both sides having very different views on that just one thing
before we move on the u.s. role because Mike Pompeo is going to meet separately
with the foreign ministers of South Korea in Japan today and then together
with them how much role do you think the u.s. is going to play do you think
Washington now realizes the seriousness of this situation and really is going to
start putting pressure on both sides to reach some site that's some kind of
compromise I don't think the United States role as an honest broker is
limited because it has been long-standing position of the United
States are not to get involved between any countries when it's about
territorial disputes or historical issues and this is one of those issues
the United States is afraid of getting involved and if the nurses get involved
it would open the floodgate then many other historic and hetro issues would
invite the United States to you know be the mediator or honest broker so I don't
think the United States is ready to open the floodgate because of the simply
because this is a very serious matter for current security cooperation right
so you don't think that the effect on the global supply chain of
semiconductors to US firms that isn't USA mr. South Korea already gave us a
very clear answer to that question that the point when the United States
government will seriously consider getting involved in this spat between
South Korea and Japan will be when when the situation will actually hurt the
u.s. cooperation and consumers okay I'm just hearing in my ear that we just have
some news coming in on what we've just been talking about Japan has has decided
to remove South Korea from its list of trusted trading partners in a meeting
held just moments ago I believe it started at 10 a.m. Korea time same time
in Korea and Japan the Japanese cabinet decided to drop South Korea from its
white list of 27 countries given preferential treatment in trade
procedures this takes this dispute to the next level now the decision means
Japanese exporters will need individual authorisation rather than fast-track
approval for exports of around 100 1120 Jul use items to South Korea so let's go
back for 2 dr. bong young-shik from Seoul's Yonsei University who's still
with us so what's your reaction to that decision oh this is a very sad day for
many people many people would have a very heavy heart watching this and use
it reminds me of the line in the movie margin call a movie about the subprime
mortgage crisis of the United States in 2008 yeah the actor investor played by
actor mr. Kevin Spacey said remember this day remember this day but there's a
hope because although the cabinet of the RBI administration made its decision to
remove South Korea from the white list but we still have three weeks for that
decision to be implemented so we still have
reasonable amount of time for both countries to you know sit together to
come up with a solution satisfactory to both sides but once again the heart of
the issue is not security economics trade technology and whatnot it is about
how to come to the common terms about the interpretation of 1965 normalization
between South Korea and Japan unless there will be political
you know agreement on their issue then the Japan will continue to regard South
Korea another country that Japan can fully trust including export of the
materials for dual issues so the situation will not be fundamentally
changed unless there will be political decision on this historical issue so I
mean many people saw this coming there were reports filtering out over the past
couple of days saying this was a done deal essentially they were going to
approve it Japanese media outlets were saying that that that was certainly
going to be the case the South Korean government's response now then given
what you're saying about the sensitive nature of this issue do you think that
they're going to take their time and formulate a response or do you think
we're going to hear something from them very soon I think there will be a
response from the blue house presence office of South Korea and sometime in
this afternoon the moon jaein government is expected to make the announcement in
response to this decision by a veiled omission of Japan but we have to keep an
eye on actual content of the response from South Korean government depending
upon the content of the announcement by the South Korean government I guess the
atmosphere will be decided whether in favor of in a reasonable and productive
diplomatic negotiations or it'll be just the head-butting confrontation to be
continued so we have to wait and see but we have
two timelines one is the short term results created from this announcement
by the Japanese government I think you will be strongly influenced by negative
emotions especially anti-japanese sentiment among South Korean public yeah
but we also have a different timetable which is a long term that if South
Korean economy will go down significantly because of the after
effect of this decision especially the semiconductor industry then we are going
to since we're going to have the National Assembly listen in the next
April if the economic situations go down then South Korean public's opinion
toward the South Korean government's very hardline policy toward the RBI
administration may be quickly shifting so there is a political aspect of the
Moon jingle now South Korea's response to array or the ministers decision do
you think this is the most challenging point of the moon jaein administration
so far since it's been in power I think so I think so and his are now passing
the midpoint of his presidency which is four or five years all right but if I
may try to maintain the positive outlook on this if we just watching a video of
the spokesmen from Japan telling everyone about Tokyo decision to remove
South Korea from the white list and as we can see on the screen there South
Korea is going to prepare countermeasures against those things so
potentially could this be a defining point of the president moons
administration how he deals with this now right we have to pay attention what
kind of countermeasures will be taken by the meeting of North Korea it may affect
the next round of the engagement or absence of engagement between South
Korea and Japan so well I was never done much engagement
anyway right yeah well I like to cite there the line from movie Godfather Part
III Michael Corleone tells he is a successor that do not hate your enemy do
not hate your enemy because it'll fix your judgement yeah I think we have to
get out of the emotional clashes in order to have cool-headed approaches to
the issue otherwise then the domestic political consideration will prevail
over diplomatics search for solution okay just really really quickly because
we're running out of time I just wanted to get in terms of the crises that South
Korea's economy is faced over the years how do you think this this moment right
now ranks well we have a impact of the Asian financial crisis in mid 1990s but
I don't think the situation is as bad as that economic crisis many years ago and
we still have a window of three weeks to patch the current situation if there
will be political will okay wonderful now professor bong young-shik we
appreciate your insights and thank you for coming in and sharing them with us
my pleasure