In 2024 El Niño will break out, prepare for hellish weather events!
After years of praying to all the saints in heaven for a few drops of rain, the inhabitants
of California found themselves unexpectedly grappling with devastating floods brought by
Tropical Storm Hilary last August, which also hit Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. The deluge
triggered by Hilary caused widespread flooding and torrents of debris, with mudflows, boulders,
and trees destroying homes and businesses, and engulfing motorists. To put it into perspective,
the desert Death Valley received more rain in one day than it typically gets in a year!
This was absolutely extraordinary because hurricanes rarely hit California. The first one
struck its shores only in 1939, and the last one occurred in 1997, more than 25 years ago. However,
one thing is certain… Most of the storms that have reached the 'Golden State,' as California is
called, have occurred when another cyclical force of nature known as El Niño was in full swing!
El Niño is not a new phenomenon, and its study has evolved over time to the present
day. It's not an ocean current or a one-time nature's whim; El Niño is a cyclical event
capable of altering the climate and many other parameters worldwide. According to experts,
following the initial signs also reported by the Copernicus mission monitoring system - a
complex Earth satellite observation program launched in 1998 by a consortium of space
agencies - we can now say that El Niño is returning, and it's likely to be a grand
return because its disruptions could combine with the ongoing climate change. The fear,
in particular, is that a very strong El Niño event in 2024 could make it the hottest
year ever recorded on our planet! Follow us if you want to know more!
El Niño is a climatic phenomenon that occurs every few years in the Pacific Ocean. It is
characterized by abnormal warming of the surface waters off the western coast of South America,
which causes changes in atmospheric circulation and affects the climate in many regions of the
world. El Niño can lead to droughts, floods, storms, fires, and other extreme weather events.
Many years ago, this phenomenon was less violent because it occurred on a planet
with lower temperatures and not yet deteriorated by the climate crisis. Now the story is different:
we can expect new heat records, although it's difficult to predict what will really happen.
But how does El Niño form, and what are its consequences? To understand this,
we first need to know the standard conditions of the Pacific Ocean. Under normal conditions,
the trade winds (the ones that pushed Christopher Columbus's ships from Europe to America in the
Atlantic) blow from east to west, pushing surface waters toward Asia and Australia. This creates a
pressure difference between the two sides of the ocean: higher pressure in the east and
lower pressure in the west. This difference strengthens the trade winds, which in turn
pushes even more water westward. This creates a circular current called the 'Walker cell.'
The Walker cell has two main effects: On one hand, it cools surface waters in the east,
promoting the upwelling of deep, nutrient-rich waters that support
marine life and fishing. On the other hand, it warms surface waters in the west,
creating a warm water mass called the 'warm pool,' which extends from Indonesia to the
central Pacific islands. This warm water mass heats the air above it, creating clouds and rain.
However, every now and then, the trade winds weaken or change direction,
allowing the mass of warm water to shift eastward. This marks the beginning of El Niño.
El Niño disrupts the Walker cell, reducing the pressure difference between the two sides of the
ocean and further weakening the trade winds. Warm water spreads toward South America, suppressing
the upwelling of deep and nutrient-rich waters, leading to a decrease in marine life and fishing.
So, one might wonder, why be concerned about a phenomenon of local significance
that only affects the west coast of South America? Unfortunately,
things are not quite so. It is now established that El Niño has global effects,
altering atmospheric circulation patterns and influencing the climate in other regions.
For example, El Niño can lead to milder winters in North America and Europe,
but also more storms in California and the Gulf of Mexico. El Niño can intensify hurricanes
in the eastern Atlantic while reducing them in the western Pacific. Additionally, El Niño can
impact agricultural production, human health, biodiversity, and the economies of many countries.
Furthermore, the tropical Pacific Ocean is so vast that a surface temperature increase of just one or
two degrees is more than sufficient to disrupt the global climate. A slightly warmer ocean evaporates
more water, heating the atmosphere and fueling tropical storms. Convective movement (a way heat
is transferred, typical of fluids) then carries this additional energy towards cooler regions to
the north and south, on both sides of the equator. The Earth's rotation also spreads this energy
towards the east. The net result is a widespread redistribution of heat and moisture. In climatic
terminology, El Niño is an excellent example of the "teleconnection" of global weather systems.
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The warm current of El Niño can typically last from 9 to 12 months,
but it's not uncommon for its cycle of activity to persist for up to 18
months. It usually peaks between December and February but can occur at any time of the year.
El Niño was named in the 19th century. At that time, fishermen in northern Peru noticed that
almost every year, around the end of December, near Christmas, there was a rise in sea water
temperature. They attributed this warming to the arrival of a warm ocean current, which they
named the "El Niño" current in reference to the child Jesus (el niño Jesus in Spanish). For them,
and still today, it's a matter of economic survival: the vast, gleaming shoals of
anchovies on which their livelihood depends prefer colder waters and disappear when El Niño arrives.
However, beware... El Niño is not an isolated event but part of a natural cycle called
the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which alternates between warming (El Niño) and cooling
(La Niña) phases of the Pacific Ocean. La Niña is the opposite of El Niño: it occurs when the
trade winds are stronger than usual, pushing more cold water eastward and more warm water westward.
La Niña has climatic effects opposite to those of El Niño: for example, La Niña can
cause colder winters in North America and Europe but also more rain in Indonesia and Australia.
What perhaps hasn't been emphasized enough when discussing global warming
in recent years is that the values recorded in 2022 and 2021 are very close to absolute
records but occurred in years 'cooled' by La Niña. And they are still warmer than
years marked by El Niño, even very recent ones! So, El Niño is indeed a complex and fascinating
phenomenon that shows us how climate results from a delicate balance between the ocean and
the atmosphere, and how variations in one part of the world can have repercussions
in another. El Niño also challenges us to better understand the mechanisms that regulate climate
and predict its future changes so that we can adapt and mitigate its negative impacts.
But why are we telling you all this? The reason is simple... according to hundreds of experts,
in 2024, the world could witness an unprecedented climate event that could have catastrophic
consequences for the Earth's climate and life. According to the latest forecasts,
2023 and especially 2024 could see a very strong El Niño event,
potentially setting a record for global average temperatures and bringing the planet closer than
ever to a warming threshold that scientists and policymakers warn could be potentially harmful.
According to some estimates, 2024 could be the first year when the global temperature exceeds
1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a threshold considered critical to avoiding the most severe
impacts of climate change. This means that the world could experience irreversible
effects such as polar ice melting, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, biodiversity loss,
increased infectious diseases, and reduced food security. Furthermore,
the strong El Niño event could alter long-term climate patterns, changing the distribution of
energy between the tropics and polar regions, influencing ocean thermohaline circulation,
and modifying biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and water.
These effects could have repercussions on biodiversity, agriculture, drinking water,
human health, and global security. The catastrophic consequences of
surpassing the 1.5°C threshold are numerous and interconnected. Some of the key ones are:
●The melting of polar ice and high-altitude glaciers, resulting in sea-level rise and the
loss of habitat for many animal and plant species. It is estimated that with a temperature increase
of 1.5°C, sea levels could rise by about 0.4 meters by 2100, while a 2°C increase
would result in a 0.6-meter rise. This would put coastal populations and infrastructure at risk,
exposing them to phenomena such as erosion, saline intrusion, flooding, and storms
●Ocean acidification occurs when carbon dioxide absorbed by the water forms carbonic acid,
lowering the ocean's pH. This process harms marine organisms that form calcium
carbonate shells or skeletons, such as corals, mollusks, and crustaceans.
●Loss of terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity occurs when species fail to adapt to climate
changes and lose their habitats or food sources. With a temperature increase of 1.5°C,
6% of insects, 8% of plants, and 4% of vertebrates could lose more than half of their climatic range
by 2100. With a 2°C increase, these percentages would rise to 18%, 16%, and 8%, respectively.
●Increased infectious diseases occur when climate change promotes the spread of pathogens or vectors
such as mosquitoes or ticks. According to a recent study, a temperature increase of
1.5°C will have catastrophic and irreversible health consequences, including the rise of
infectious diseases. These diseases can affect both humans and animals, causing
deaths, disabilities, and healthcare costs. ●Reduced food security occurs when climate
change reduces the availability and quality of food, both directly affecting crops and livestock
and indirectly affecting supply and distribution chains. With a temperature increase of 1.5°C,
global wheat production could decrease by 2%, while a 2°C increase could lead
to a 7% decrease. Similarly, global maize production could decrease by 7%
with a temperature increase of 1.5°C and by 12% with a 2°C increase. This would jeopardize food
security and nutrition for millions of people. Another grim consequence of a particularly strong
El Niño is the increase in diseases. Viruses replicate more rapidly in vectors like mosquitoes
as temperatures rise. Mosquitoes also bite more frequently in the heat. Heavy rains create more
breeding sites for insects, as does drought when people collect more water in accessible
containers. Research compiled by the World Health Organization found that drought conditions
associated with El Niño over two decades increased malaria cases in Colombia and Venezuela by more
than a third. A strong El Niño in 1997-98 was linked to major malaria outbreaks in Ethiopia,
Kenya, and Uganda. This year's heavy rains and floods have exacerbated Peru's worst-ever dengue
epidemic, overwhelming hospitals in the north. ●Flooding can lead to poor hygiene, causing an
increase in diarrheal diseases. Displacement and overcrowding following a disaster exacerbate these
epidemics. If the Horn of Africa were truly soaked in rain, a surge in cholera cases is likely.
●Malnutrition worsens vulnerability to diseases, especially among the young and the elderly.
Save the Children, a charity, argues that the upheaval brought by the 2015-16 El Niño left an
additional 6 million children malnourished worldwide, three times the number affected
similarly by COVID-19. And the pandemic has left healthcare services overloaded and weakened.
These are just a few examples of the catastrophic consequences that could result from exceeding the
1.5°C global warming threshold in 2024. These are scenarios we cannot afford to face, neither
environmentally nor socially and economically. That's why it is urgent to take action now to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5°C. Only then can we
safeguard our planet and our future. How can we deal with El Niño?
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that we cannot prevent or control. However, we can try to monitor
its development and prepare for its effects, both individually and collectively. To monitor
El Niño, we can use various observation and prediction tools, such as satellites, ocean buoys,
climate models, and statistical indicators. These tools allow us to track the evolution of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions and anticipate the impacts of El Niño on different regions of the
world. To prepare for its effects, we can adopt various adaptation and mitigation measures, such
as water resource management, crop and livestock protection, disease and disaster prevention,
international cooperation, and humanitarian assistance. These measures enable us to reduce
the vulnerability of populations and ecosystems to the negative effects of El Niño and take advantage
of the positive opportunities it can offer. However, these actions are not sufficient if we
do not address the root causes of climate change, which makes El Niño more frequent and intense. To
do this, we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainable and resilient development.
Only in this way can we prevent events like El Niño from becoming increasingly dangerous for
the future of the planet and humanity. Regardless of how it turns out,
what is certain is that we will not be able to cope with the nightmarish temperatures we will
face next year! For those, there is nothing left to do. It will be a hellish scenario.