Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for summer 2022 to 2023.
Wetter than normal conditions are likely to continue for the east coast,
so the flood risk remains.
But first, let's look at conditions during spring.
Despite spring being drier than usual in the south-west corner of WA and western Tasmania,
Australia is on track for its second-wettest spring on record.
Victoria, New South Wales and the Murray–Darling Basin all had their
wettest spring since records began in 1900.
Flooding has impacted vast areas through inland New South Wales and central Victoria.
Flooding has also affected Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
Most of the mainland had cooler than average daytime temperatures.
In contrast, far northern Australia experienced heatwaves, with some areas
likely to have their warmest spring on record.
High rainfall has kept soils very wet in many areas, particularly across south-eastern Australia.
Only parts of Western Australia and isolated parts of the north are drier than average.
Many water storages are now full and spilling.
Very wet soils cannot absorb much more water when it rains,
so runoff into dams has been very high.
The green circles on this map show storages that are now more than 100% full.
So what's likely to influence our climate over the coming months?
The climate patterns behind recent rainfall may start to change during the summer.
The La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean is contributing
to the wet outlook in the east.
But models indicate La Niña may start to ease in early 2023.
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole has been weakening in recent weeks.
It typically ends by early December, when the Asian monsoon
shifts into the southern hemisphere.
Weather systems are also further south than normal, which can draw rainfall into
eastern Australia, but keep it drier than usual in western Tasmania.
This pattern is likely to ease gradually over the summer.
And sea surface temperatures around Australia were warmest on record in October.
Warm oceans can increase the amount of rain and moisture in weather systems.
So, what is the long-range forecast for summer?
While large parts of Western Australia may be drier than usual above average rainfall
is likely for most of the east coast, Victoria and eastern Tasmania,
particularly early in the summer.
High streamflows are forecast to continue for much of Australia.
Low streamflows are likely for the south-west corner of Western Australia and western Tasmania.
With wet soils, high rivers and full dams, any further rain raises the risk of flooding.
Although the outlook is cooler than normal for parts of south eastern Australia,
warmer than average days are likely in the north, the west and in Tasmania.
Nights are also looking warmer than usual, particularly across the tropical north
and in Tasmania.
The summer fire outlook from Australian fire agencies shows above normal fire potential
for some inland and central areas, as well parts of Western Australia
and south-western Tasmania.
Wet conditions over spring mean abundant vegetation growth in many areas.
This may dry out by late summer, providing fuel for grass fires.
Fire agencies will monitor summer conditions closely.
We're now into the tropical cyclone season.
The Australian region is likely to experience an above average number of tropical cyclones
so northern communities should be prepared.
So, in summary, this summer we're likely to see:
Above average rainfall for the east, but drier in the west.
Continued flood risk.
Warmer days and nights for many areas.
Above normal bushfire potential for some areas and an increased chance
of an more tropical cyclones than usual.
You can find long-range forecasts and he latest flood warnings on the Bureau's website.
Bye for now.