- Coming up are 10 riders which we think you should
look out for at this year's Tour de France.
Plus, a whole host of mind-blowing stats.
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Let's start with one of those stats, then, shall we?
Marcel Kittel of Quick-Step Floors has won 9 stages
of the Tour de France in his career.
Out of the 62 row stages that he has started.
That is a hit rate of 15%, which is not bad at all.
However, it doesn't tell the whole story, because of course
lots of the stages of the tour are not suited
to the sprinters.
So, he is sprinted for the win on 15 occasions,
giving him a hit rate of 60%, which I think you'll agree
is mighty impressive.
What are we trying to say?
Well, we think through those stats that Kittel will win
at least one stage at this year's Tour de France,
and probably more than that, given that there are
nine fairly flat stages.
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So how does that compare to the stats of Mark Cavendish?
Well many of you will know that he is now closing in
on the all-time record of stage wins, that being Eddy Merckx
who took 34 in his career.
Cav is now just four short of that mark.
He's ridden 151 row stages in his career,
giving him a hit rate of just under 20%,
which is somewhere above that of Marcel Kittel.
Now Cav had sprinted for the win on those stages
on 51 occasions, would then give him a hit rate
of just under 60%, so slightly less than Kittel,
but given the volume of stages and the volume of wins,
I would say that that stat is way more impressive.
So the stats suggest that Cav will win multiple stages
at this year's Tour de France.
However they do not take into fact the account
that he has been recovering from the Epstein-Barr virus
which has taken him out for much of the season so far.
A second place on the final stage of his comeback race
the Tour de Slovenia does bode well,
but there is no doubt he is going to be lacking
the racing miles of his key rivals.
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And one of those rivals will of course be Andre Greipel,
who is a former teammate of Mark Cavendish.
Want some stats on The Gorilla?
Yeah, I thought you did.
Well he has won 11 stages of the Tour de France,
but the incredible stat from Andre Greipel is that
he has won at least one stage of the last 12 Grand Tours
that he has entered in a row.
That is a record which is only bettered by two greats
of the sport, they being Bernard Hinault and Eddy Merckx.
So, the stats once again suggest that Andre Greipel
will win at least one stage of this year's race.
He's certainly got a strong team
to back him up at Lotto-Soudal.
Without a big GC rider within their ranks,
he will be their first priority.
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Peter Sagan, meanwhile, is a statistician's dream.
He has won the green points jersey every Tour de France
in which he has competed, which is the last five.
However, after the 94 row stages that he's won,
he's only won seven, which is less than I thought.
That's a hit rate of just 7.5%,
or half that of Marcel Kittel,
and even further behind Mark Cavendish.
However, it's when you look at his consistency that things
become quite incredible.
Out of those 94 stages on the row, he has finished
in the top 10 on 52 occasions.
That is a hit rate then of 55%,
which really is quite remarkable, I think you would agree.
So this year, Sagan will the green jersey,
he'll win a stage, and he'll be up there
in almost every other stage.
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Richie Porte of team BMC has barely set a foot wrong
so far in 2017.
Aside from a small blip in the cold wet and wind
of Pyrenees, and the fact that he was ganged up on
on the last stage of the Criterium Dauphine.
Aside from that, he has been consistent, impeccable,
and quite dominant I think it's fair to say.
Could this be the year where he finally
steps out of the shadow of his former teammate Chris Froome?
Well you have to say, it's his best chance yet.
Oh, you want stats on Porte, don't you?
Well he is the shortest odds ever at the bookmakers
to win the Tour de France for a rider who's never
actually finished on the podium of a Grand Tour.
I just made that up, but I reckon that's true.
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The latest of the young French hope's Romain Bardet
has a lot to live up to after his run-up position
at the Tour de France this time last year.
And I would personally say that along with Chris Froome,
he's probably the only GC rider who'd be happy
to replicate the result from 12 months ago.
Now he hasn't quite hit his stride so far in 2017,
but maybe he's timed his form to perfection.
He'll certainly be hoping so.
The Tour de France is the biggest race in the world,
but as a French rider on a French team,
the pressure is immense.
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Nairo Quintana's hopes of doing the Giro-Tour double
were crushed before he even got to the Tour de France
this year, having been unable to get the better
of a flying Tom Dumoulin at the Giro D'Italia.
Will he go better at the Tour de France?
Well last year, certainly, his second Grand Tour
was the better one, where he won the Vuelta a Espana.
But we've got to remember that this is now his fourth
Grand Tour in a row where he's going for the win.
So fatigue surely is starting to kick in for him now.
There aren't many time trialling kilometres,
which means it's good for Nairo Quintana,
but the fact that there are only three mountaintop finishes
means that I think it's going to be hard for him
to take his first Tour de France victory this year.
Now I know you are dying for Nairo Quintana's stat,
and I've got one that you are not going to believe.
You ready?
Nairo Quintana is only 27.
Incredible.
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Quintana's teammate Alejandro Valverde is also never managed
to win the Tour de France, but he's won pretty much
everything else in his career.
In fact, he's already won a lot in 2017
despite now being 37 years of age.
He's taken 11 wins in total, eight of which have been
in World Tour races.
He's finished the Tour de France on seven occasions,
always been inside the top 20, and in fact on six occasions
he's been inside the top eight.
He is consistency-personified, and together with Quintana,
they will fall a dangerous duo.
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Alberto Contador of Trek Segafredo is the only man
on the startline this year to have won all three
of the Grand Tours.
In fact, he's won all three of them at least twice
during his career, but the fact that the last of those wins
came at the 2015 Tour d'Italia, and that he hasn't taken
a win so far in 2017, has led a few people to speculate
that his powers have waned.
There's no doubt that he will have support in the mountains
from Bauke Mollema and Jarlinson Pantano.
But ultimately, it's Contador's own legs
which need to do the talking.
One thing is for certain even if he doesn't win,
his aggressive racing style will ensure
that he does play a big part in the final outcome.
(upbeat music)
And we shall finish with Chris Froome,
the defending champion and the man who's won this race
now on three occasions.
He has frankly looked unbeatable over the last few years,
however 2017, so far at least, has been a season to forget.
He's not been bad, not at all, but we certainly haven't seen
his previous powers so far this year.
That said, he still is my favourite
to take over honours again.
I just think he has the experience,
he's probably going to have the strongest team,
his descending has improved dramatically,
and as we saw last year, he is not afraid
to attack anywhere.
Well if you've got any stats which you would like to share
with us, you can do so in the comments section down below,
you know I like some numbers.
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Down here is our full Tour de France preview,
including all of the key stages, and down here,
you can learn how to spring with Mark Cavendish,
a winner of 30 stages of the Tour de France.