There's so much excitement about China's reopening and the impact on tourism,
when do you think tourism will return to pre Covid levels?
Yeah, for domestic travel, we already see a very strong rebound.
The volume is already exceeding 2019 level for cross-border transactions.
We're still working with our global partners such as global airlines,
international airports to make sure their capacity is back to 2019 level.
So it is a capacity issue. Any indications when that capacity will
be back? Because even for countries which have
opened up, they're having the issue of capacity, right?
Yeah. We just had a meeting this morning with
global partners. Many of them are gearing up for their
autonomy robots to help out with the lack of the labors.
In some instance. So we're hoping that during the first
half of the year, all the partners will speed up to increase their capacity.
And hopefully by the second half of the year, we'll be able to seed and analyze
the level for the commitment from the Chinese government to open up the
country. In fact, we heard from her just today
that China is indeed open. How are you reading that?
We are very excited because in the past three years due to Covid are not so many
people can travel around the world. Now, our government is very committed to
opening up the border. So we love to invite international
friends to come back and a visit to China.
I want to take a look at the amount the Chinese are willing to spend free Covid.
They spend about 2 an 80 billion dollars a year.
When can we get to that level again? And what is it right now?
Yeah, I think wherever we go in a summer before the open up, every country I went
into. People always ask me when can Chinese
consumers to come? So I think the world is ready to see
Chinese travellers. And because of the pent up demand for
this year, the buying power will be very strong.
So any countries which can scientifically manage the pent up demand
will benefit economically. We're talking about pent up demand once
the pent up demand is already met. What kind of pace will tourism grow in
terms of for Chinese travelers? Yeah.
Normally we look at a couple of indexes. First, a baseline is GDP growth.
So, for example, if GDP growth is between 5 to 6 percent on travel
normally can outpace that GDP by a couple percentage say 7 to 8 percent and
we won't be able to outpace the industry.
So it will be a sustainable, healthy growth.
Once the pent up demand is addressed, other travel trends that have emerge
post pandemic. I mean, are there certain destinations
are more popular? Are there certain, I guess, measures
that need to be met before Chinese travelers are willing to travel again?
Yes. Yes.
We classified nutrients in four assists. The first is very safety trivia.
So we advise our international partners really put together a nice safety
measures to protect travelers. Secondly, consumers much prefer smaller
groups rather than travel with lots of strangers.
Now they preferred to travel with their families and close friends.
The third way is short booking window because it's the first time the boiler
opens. So the booking patterns tend to be at
the last minute. So we also work with our local partners,
airline partners, to make sure they are used to the new pattern.
And lastly is a new trend from new generation.
They're very sustainable. The people will choose hotels which
participate in the green travel initiatives.
People will select planes that emit less.
So we are very excited for the new generation who focus on sustainability.
We've been talking about outbound travel.
How about inbound travel? We know there's still quarantine being
imposed in China, certain restrictions still in place.
How is inbound travel look? Yeah, the country opened up totally on
January to 8th, so there is no more warranty required.
So as soon as the news was announced, oh, my international business partners
who are very excited, they start to call me and email me.
I try to make a reservation for for them to come back.
So I think that Business Traveller will take the first wave in a way are also
very open. Hopefully we'll be able to bury our
international travellers back to China also.
Do you think that will happen? I'm hoping once the capacity of the
international flight. Resumes We'll be able to increase the
volume into China. What are you most optimistic about for
2023? Jay 2023?
I'm very optimistic because we're happy. Are you suffering from Covid for so
long? In a global places.
Finally, the globe is open. Every country is free to travel to.
So I'm very excited for the potential opportunities.
So we'll work very hard with our global partners to make sure they are ready for
us to bring the customers from China, from Asia to their destination.
Are you assessing the risk of a global slowdown?
We're expecting a recession in Europe, possibly even in the US.
And there is a sixty five percent chance to say of a global recession.
How might that impact travel? Yeah, I think Chinese consumers, if they
can grow at a GDP level at ten point five percent, that would be very good to
offset their recession in the other area.
Secondly, if the Chinese consumers is travelling around the world, that will
bring job opportunities as well as the buying power.
So our mission is while we are sending people further away, we are bringing the
world closer. So travel is very important during a
very challenging period so that we can enhance international exchange and
promote global.