The first scramble for Africa
was when European colonial powers saw a continent
that was vast, rich in minerals and land,
and very poorly defended,
and they rushed in to carve it up, and steal the land.
The second was during the Cold War
when east and west were locked
in a struggle for global domination.
That's when the Soviet Union backed Marxist death spots
all over Africa,
and the Americans backed any leader
who said that he was in favor of capitalism.
The third way which is happening right now,
is much more benign,
it's much more about voluntarily exchange,
about trade, and about the spread of technology.
It's a new kind of scramble for Africa,
which if handled well, Africans can win.
The old stereotype of foreigners in Africa
is that they're only interested in the minerals,
and not Africa's people,
that's still sometimes true,
and there are still a lot of corrupt mineral deals
going on in Africa.
But much more important now,
is African people,
they'll be more Africans in the world
than Chinese people by 2025,
it's a huge market,
and since they're all living in independent countries
they're in a much better position than in the past
to negotiate better deals with the outside world.
And this had been great for Africans,
great to openness,
to trade an investment from the outside world
is one of the reasons why Africans
are two fifths richer than they were in 2000.
Of course, the fact that there are fewer wars,
and better macroeconomic policies has also helped.
There's still a big problem with corruption.
Unaccountable leaders in the less transparent
African countries can often sign deals with outsiders,
that benefit them personally,
but perhaps not their country so much.
The things that Russia's doing
in the Central African Republic,
well you have private firms protecting domin minds
and the president of that war torn country,
are to many people reminiscent of what happened
in the 1900 century at the height of imperialism.
The scale of foreign interest is unprecedented.
Between 2010 and 2016,
320 new embassies were opened in Africa,
probably the largest embassy building boom anywhere ever.
Turkey alone opened 26,
the last year of India announced it was going to open 18.
Military links are spreading too.
China alone has ties with 45 African countries,
America and France are helping defeat terrorists
in the Sahel.
Oil rich Arab nations are setting up military bases
in the Gulf,
and Russia has military deals with 19 African countries.
African voters and watchdogs need to insist
on more transparency in the way that these deals are done.
The kind of work that Kenyan journalists have done
to expose scandals connected to a Chinese railway project,
is very encouraging.
Second African leaders need to think more strategically.
China is one country, Africa is 54,
it's gonna be much harder for them
to drive the right kind of bargains,
if they let China negotiate with them individually,
behind closed doors.
Even if African unity is a bit of a far off dream
at the moment,
at least you can see more regional unity,
which can be very useful
in negotiating infrastructure projects.
Finally Africans should take
what some of their new friends tell them
with a pinch of salt.
The Chinese government is very keen to tell Africans
that democracy is a Western idea,
and that development needs a firm hand.
This may be music to the ears
of the some of the strong men on the continent,
but African voters should not be fooled by it.
There's a lot of research out there suggesting,
that the African countries that are more democratic,
tend to grow faster, and prosper better.
As the population gets more educated,
and moves into the cities more,
we're seeing that they are more critical of governments,
and giving the ruling party a lower share of the vote.
As African politics grows more competitive,
voters will have more clout,
and they will be able to insist
on a form of globalization
that works for Africans and foreigners alike.