Whether you love it or hate it, the A380 is a true engineering feat.
Its development was motivated by the possibilities of high capacity long-haul travel,
but it has not worked out as well as hoped for Airbus – or airlines. Despite its operating
challenges and relatively quick decline, carrying so many passengers long-haul is undoubtedly one
of the most significant aviation milestones. But… How and why did this superjumbo come to be?
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The story of the A380 dates back almost to Airbus’s founding in 1970.
The company was formed by several European manufacturers coming together to compete
against the larger US companies (including, but not only, Boeing).
Airbus’ first aircraft, the A300, was designed to compete with the Boeing 707,
but the company always had the ambition to go further and challenge their competitors
in both larger widebodies and narrowbodies. It launched the dual A330/A340 program in 1986
and announced plans to go bigger and take on the 747 at the Farnborough Air Show in 1990.
Airbus considered several designs and finally selected a high-capacity two-deck
aircraft. Boeing had also looked at this concept for the 747 but failed
to make it work given emergency exit and evacuation requirements.
In the early 90s, Airbus had confidence in the possibilities for higher-capacity aircraft.
This was based on an expectation of growth in hub-based operating models,
bringing passengers together from several locations to fill aircraft on key routes.
It would also help with growing congestion at airports, maximizing the use of valuable slots.
Meanwhile, Boeing was moving forward with the lower capacity 777, an aircraft that
would target point-to-point operations. It did look twice at launching a larger 747.
This would have stretched the upper deck and introduced upgrades from the 777.
Other manufacturers also looked at larger aircraft at the time,
but nothing else developed beyond a concept. McDonnell Douglas launched a two-deck proposal,
the MD-12, in 1992. And Lockheed Martin released plans for a 900 capacity two-deck Large Subsonic
Transport aircraft in 1996. Despite interest from airlines, there were no orders for either.
The A380 was originally conceived with both a passenger and a freighter version in mind. An
even larger passenger version was also proposed, with a stretched fuselage but the same wing design
(it would offer an additional capacity of around 100) but there was limited interest and no orders.
The A380 freighter version, however, did receive 27 orders from Emirates, FedEx, UPS, and ILFC
(International Lease Finance Corporation). It was never developed, however, for two main reasons...
Firstly there were delays in the development of the passenger version,
and the freighter was deprioritized.
Secondly, there were technical problems with freight loading of the two decks,
with the aircraft having more volume than it could support the weight of.
This was quite a setback for Airbus, and it still struggles in the freighter market against
the Boeing 747 and 777. If they’d figured it out, use for freight could have provided
a potential alternative for aircraft now coming out of passenger service.
From its inception, Airbus was conceived out of European collaboration.
Even its first A300 project saw development and construction spread across Europe.
This remained the same with the A380, but it took on new challenges with the increased size.
The final assembly of all aircraft takes place at Airbus’ factory in Toulouse.
But parts and components are brought together from
all over Europe and globally – involving 1,500 companies in 30 countries in total.
Most significantly, large wing and fuselage sections were built in other locations in France,
Germany, Spain, and the UK: The nose and center sections of the
fuselage were built in Saint-Nazaire in France in Northwestern France.
The rear fuselage section and tail fin were made in Hamburg.
Horizontal tail fins were made in Cadiz, Spain. And the wings were built in Broughton, Wales.
To move these components around, Airbus developed an extensive transportation network.
This involved three specifically designed ‘ro-ro’ (roll-on-roll-off) boats, canal transportation,
and road convoys in France with specially modified village roads. Airbus’ Beluga
aircraft fleet also transported some parts – but these are used much more for other aircraft.
The end of the A380 program was announced in 2019, with the production of Emirates’
last aircraft to finish in 2021. But... With a total of 251 aircraft ordered,
it has been far from a failure. However, Airbus has admitted it will not recover its investment,
with development costs of €25 billion ($29.7 billion) – more than twice the original estimate.
The total orders have been as follows: In the lead, by far,
with 123 aircraft is Emirates... Singapore Airlines has a fleet of 19...
12 serve British Airways... 14 with Lufthansa...
10 with each of the following: Etihad…
Qatar Airways… Air France, and…
Korean Air And six with...
Asiana Airlines... Thai Airways...
Malaysian Airlines... China Southern has a fleet of five aircraft...
And ANA has three. Notably, ANA was the last airline to start flying the A380 in March 2019.
While the A380 had already started to fall out of favor before the pandemic, the aviation slowdown
of 2020 and into 2021 has expedited this. There were several order cancelations before
delivery even began. These included... Virgin Atlantic,
Kingfisher, and Hong Kong Airlines. Qantas and Emirates also both reduced their orders.
The decline in popularity is due to a number of reasons. Crucially, point-to-point operating
models have become more desirable over the anticipated – and planned for – hub-based model.
Only Emirates has really made the aircraft work for its hub model,
and while it has worked well at capacity-constrained airports,
it has been too limited in use at smaller airports due to its size and wingspan.
But other events have also worked against it: Oil and fuel prices rose since its development. The
ability (and capacity) of twin-engine aircraft has also improved significantly. And alongside this,
governments, airlines, and passengers are today much more interested in efficient operation
as well as emissions reduction. Efficient twins have taken over from quadjets in a way
few people (and certainly not Airbus) would have predicted in the 1980s and 1990s.
Emirates, of course, stands out as an exception to this A380 decline. It has made the aircraft work
where other airlines have failed. Most simply, this comes down to its true hub-based operations.
But some advantages come from its large fleet. By making such a huge commitment to the type,
it benefits from operational advantages and cost savings.
This will change going forward as it moves to a more diverse and more fuel-efficient fleet.
But with such a large fleet, and new deliveries just arriving, it will remain an operator for
many years. CEO Sir Tim Clark discussed this in an interview with Simple Flying, explaining
how he remains keen on the A380, and how it will remain in the fleet well into the 2030s.
Singapore Airlines was the first to retire A380 aircraft in 2017 – it was
in service for less than 10 years. Emirates retired its first aircraft in October 2020
(which had been planned before the 2020 slowdown).
Several airlines have sped up retirements due to the pandemic. Air France announced early in the
crisis that it would retire its A380 fleet. Etihad’s CEO has expressed the opinion that
they are commercially unviable going forward, and they are unlikely to return to the fleet.
Lufthansa certainly won’t return them to service any time soon – if ever.
And Qatar Airways’ CEO called the A380 “the airline’s biggest mistake,”
and has already confirmed the impairment of five of its 10 aircraft. Coming out of
the pandemic the global A380 fleet will look a lot different… and a lot smaller.
These retirements are especially unfortunate given the very limited second-hand market for the type.
There is little demand for such large aircraft now that airlines don’t want them in the fleet.
We’ve spoken before about Hi Fly, which took on a single secondhand A380
(from Singapore Airlines) for charter services. At one point, it was interested
in a second aircraft but has now dropped these plans and retired its first aircraft.
Conversion for freight use is another possibility. But the A380 is not ideal for this, as the failure
of the freighter version highlighted. We have seen passenger aircraft being used
for freight during the pandemic, but this is unlikely to be a long-term use for aircraft.
Use as private aircraft for governments or VIPs has also been attempted,
but with no success as yet and no new clients or deals on the horizon.
As its price declines, perhaps second-hand use may become more attractive.
In early 2021, the price of a secondhand A380 had fallen 50% – the most of any
aircraft type. But for now, we are likely to see more retired aircraft heading to the graveyard.
The A380 is a great aircraft and a landmark in engineering achievements. But… the market has
moved against it, taking it out of service earlier than anticipated in many cases.
Do you think it will find another use, or are the superjumbo’s days numbered?
Feel free to discuss this and other A380 experiences in the comments.