welcome back to the sweet life where today we're going to talk about pirates and princesses with
the disney stock analysis now after the last three months of basically declining 25.86
in their stock price to a current value of 109.60 per share is disney worth buying or avoiding all
together we're gonna do a full stock analysis and we're gonna break it all down if you're excited
to get started let's get right to it now the big focus for disney outside of the theme parks
in the studio and all that is the big focus on streaming services now with netflix currently
losing subscriptions they just announced they lost over 200 000 subscriptions in the last quarter of
2022. that also brought their stock loss down 35 now that puts disney plus into focus how many new
subscribers is disney plus adding are they adding and how is their competition against the big boys
like netflix actually going those are some things that we as investors need to look into and on top
of that of course the benefit for disney is if the subscription and streaming services are getting a
little bit dicey we can always turn to the movie studio and the theme parks to hopefully keep
the balance of revenue afloat now i think my og subscribers will appreciate this one because
we're talking about disney but i gotta say it and say it with me none of this today is financial
advice after all i'm just some guy on youtube who sometimes looks like woody from toy story so take
that for what it's worth do your own research let's get right down to it by first looking at
their most recent quarter two earnings report and after we look at this quarter two earnings report
we're going to take a look under the hood and see what their technicals are looking like to see if
109 per share is a good buy price or if we should be more interested in 90 80 or 70 dollars a share
let's get right to it here we're looking at their overall quarterly income report now
i'm going to first start by taking a look right here at revenues now quarter one 2021 which is
represented right here april 3rd 2021 we can see it's 15.6 billion dollars yeah you heard me right
billion they made 15.6 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2021 and check it out in 2022
first quarter made 19.2 billion dollars that's a good thing i'm gonna give that a check mark
because that's what we like to see we want to see revenues continue to grow comparing these two
metrics 15 to 19 that's looking pretty good but the issue is there were a lot of cost and overhead
that came with it this past quarter giving them a total net income of only 597 million totally
compared to 1.1 billion that is gonna erode this six-month chart over here on the right-hand side
so what we need to keep our eye on is we want to see some performance improvements in quarter 3 of
2022 which we will find out more on in august of this year but of course that's going to get some
investors and some of the big boys a little bit worried they're going to pull out some of their
money invested into something else and that will bring down the price of disney which is what we're
seeing at that 109 now not to get too political but there is also another pressure on disney which
right now is their opposition to the parental rights and education bill in florida otherwise
known as the don't say gay bill now it's been very interesting because a lot of the pressure behind
that which you can see right here in this article disney stock tumbles amid florida bill controversy
there's been a lot of pressure behind disney as a result of some of their announcements they can
see that this is starting to come down this is as of april 21st which now we're down to 109
but i think it's doubled with the pressure of the actual revenue but that does add some additional
pressure to disney i'd love to hear your thoughts comment down below now as i mentioned the big
driver for me is i want to see increased improved subscriptions now look here i'm going to take your
attention right here to total disney plus we're talking about 137 million subscribers compared to
103 million the same quarter last year that is an increase of 33 percent not too bad and
in fact very very good especially if you look at espn plus as well which is owned by disney
at 22.3 million against 13.8 representing a 62 improvement on espn plus but money is where
it matters let's look at the average monthly revenue per paid subscribers if you look here
disney plus right here okay that looks pretty good 435 against 399 in the prior year at a 9
improvement what i'm a little bit worried about is espn plus down here espn plus is 473 against 455
only a four percent change one thing i'm going to be holding them accountable for as an investor as
an owner of the company is to make sure that i see this continue to go up and that this continues to
go up simultaneously if it doesn't i'm gonna be a little bit worried and saying what are you doing
to fix this because you're only at a change of four percent in overall revenue per subscriber
if that continues to erode down we could be in the negatives and that's not what we want now all this
talk of streaming makes you wonder what about netflix right because netflix just lost 200 000
subscribers well thanks to statista let's take a look at it here we are on statista.com and this is
looking specifically at disney plus right now look at this quarter one 2020 when they first started
they only had 26.5 million subscribers but look at where they are today as we saw a little bit
earlier in the earnings report at 137.7 million that is a nice and if you look here look at
this graph it just keeps going up that's great that's what we want to see looking pretty good
let's compare it to the competitors so again looking at statista.com here we are on netflix
look down here at 2013 only 34 million subscribers in 2013 but increase increase increase until just
recently that's where we got to be a little bit concerned so look at this 221.84 let me go back
to that 221.84 in quarter 4 of if i compare that to just recently 221.64 that is that loss of 200
000 subscribers which has not happened in netflix history to this point so the fact that they're
losing subscribers makes investors worried what do they do they move their money elsewhere especially
the big hedge funds and then that reduces the share price netflix dropped considerably as a
result of this news that came out what we're going to have to wait for for netflix especially if we
want to consider that as a buying opportunity is we need to see that this is going to continue to
go up and if it doesn't if they can't find a way to differentiate and bring back subscribers into
the market or find a way to increase revenue this could be a little bit of a concern again
the beauty of disney though is that they have more than one stream of income they have more than one
company they can say okay maybe streaming's not going that well but our parks are starting to pick
up or hey guess what else is picking up the movie studio whatever that may be and that's where we
want to look right here in that same report now this is where things get a little bit squirrely
you look at parks and experiences domestic and international and look at the big difference we're
talking a total if you come all the way down here to the bottom right here at 3.1 billion in april
3rd 2021 that's quarter 1 of 21. look at 22 6.6 billion now that looks phenomenal
greater than 100 change but remember we had a pandemic and of course that looks better than
2020 but it also was a little bit impactful in 2021. quarter one 2021 not all the parks were
still open internationally and now we're seeing this sudden rise and all of a sudden people are
coming out they're traveling again so of course that's gonna look amazing but that could be a a
wolf in sheep's clothing we need to make sure that we keep an eye on the broader scale of everything
not just this one particular metric so you could do this yourself go over to the disney company
let's say you're an investor in disney you want to see how's the business doing in parks
and experiences for real let's compare apples to apples for a second in quarter two of 2019 right
there it is look at that earnings report let's click on that and let's look at the difference
in parks and experiences now of course we're gonna have to come down here and check it out oh look
at that 6.16 billion compared to the prior year to see that right there 5.9 billion in 2018 6.1
5.9 remember that 5.9 6.1 let's hop back over to the one we were just looking at aha 6.6 right here
at the bottom so technically it's not oh my gosh the parks are doing amazing no the parks
are getting back on track that's a good thing and that's what we want to see as an investor but you
got to be a little bit careful about just jumping into the quarterly report when it comes down to
comparing to the pandemic let's talk about some technical indicators and how far down this price
could go right now we're looking at 109 a share and this is on yahoo finance so not bad up 3.51
but overall it's down quite a bit i want to point out a couple numbers look at look at down here on
the rsi 30.4 now if you're not familiar with the relative strength index anywhere between 30 and 70
could indicate if something is overbought or oversold and 30 is an interesting number
if something dips below that 30 line that could indicate that things have been oversold and as a
result of things being oversold you could consider buying because it could potentially go back up
the converse can happen you can have something that's overbought and all of a sudden it's due
for a correction and typically you're going to see it come back down let's take a look at that
for an example if you come over here to 2021 when things were hot and sexy over here look at the rsi
at a 68. so if 70 and above could be a warning zone that is awfully close at a 68. now we're
looking at a potential where we're down in the in the low 30s almost uh below that we'll have to see
in fact right there we're at 24. could this be an opportunity to consider disney i don't know you
have to do your own financial research but this is something that i always look at from a technical
perspective so you combine the technicals with the fundamentals that can make you a little bit
of a better investor so what should we do with the disney stock well the most important thing
is consistent investing any time that you start out with investing it's always very difficult
to time the market and find that perfect time because otherwise you know you're gonna find
the wrong time or the right time and be completely messed up with your money the best thing you could
do is stay consistent over a long period of time set your financial goals in order and then follow
that consistent plan i could see this going many different ways we have to see as a result of our
incoming recession are we potentially going to see some pullback with disney cause you got to
think inflation's higher there's a potential for a recession if that happens could we potentially
see people pull back on those disney vacations maybe stop spending so much on things like the
streaming services like disney plus and hulu and espn plus and that could potentially impact
disney's revenue that's something as an investor you got to keep an eye on and that could pull
that stock price down even lower 90s or even 80s what are your thoughts on the disney stock
comment down below and let me know check out this video next we'll see you on the next video