What we call the secret master plan. Hey this is Warren Redlich. I am really
excited about what Tesla has coming in terms of new vehicles in the future.
Tesla has been working on a lineup of SEXY CARS: The Model S. The Model 3 which
is an E. The Model X and the Model Y. Cybertruck is coming - that's C. R for Roadster.
S for Semi. And the big question mark is what's going to go in the "A" slot? A lot of people
have speculated it's going to be the ATV that was unveiled at the Cybertruck
reveal. I don't think so. So let's talk about what the Model "Ah" or
the Model 4 might be. Are you ready? Let's go!
A battery electric airplane enthusiast who inspires kids. Check out JNDsupport.com in the description for
your eye tini in Shanghai at the model 3 delivery ceremony Elon talked about how
Tesla was going to open up a China Design Center at that China Design
Center they would develop a new model China design that would be for the
future a world car this is a contrast from the master plan the second master
plan or I'll do my best French pronunciation part deux Allah
specifically said that there wouldn't be anything smaller than the model 3 this
kind of conflicted with the idea that Tesla has of spreading the vehicles into
all market segments part 2 the master plan to expand to all of the major
vehicle segments in order to as quickly as possible we have us away from oil his
comments in Shanghai and his tweet about a German design vehicle suggest that
he's changed his mind and I think it only makes sense that Tesla will make
smaller less expensive vehicles because the goal is to accelerate the transition
to sustainable energy and smaller vehicles with in particular smaller
battery packs that will accelerate the transition so today we're going to talk
about what the a vehicle is in sexy cars will it be the
model a I don't think so because Ford has a trademark on the Model A will it
be the model aa or will it be the model for as some of my commenters suggested
that a four would fit in the a slot just like the model three fits in the East
lot for purposes of this video I'm gonna refer to it as the model for as for
styling that's over my head I don't feel comfortable saying what I think the
styling will be China will do what China will do it will be some kind of Chinese
design I'm excited about that Elon also mentioned in a tweet that
there might have a German design vehicle to handle European roads that some
people feel the model y is still too big for European roads you don't know why
you would have two different vehicles one designed in China and one designed
in Europe I think Elon knows what he's doing if Elon thinks it's the right
thing to do he's probably got a good idea what he's doing if you're gonna be
producing millions of these vehicles it certainly makes sense to have multiple
designs of these vehicles the biggest goal is get the cost down get the cost
of manufacture down as much as possible get the pack size down because if you
get the pack size down you can produce more vehicles you can accomplish more in
terms of that accelerating that transition to sustainable energy and of
course by doing so you dramatically increase Tesla's profits and make that
share price go through the roof it's important to stress here the goal is not
high-performance driving in a robo taxi world we don't want our vehicles
accelerating harshly making sharp turns slamming on the brakes and showing us
how many g-forces they can do that's fun for us when we're driving the vehicle
when we're sitting in the back of the vehicle going somewhere we don't want
those sudden movements we want the vehicle to be calm we want it to be a
pleasant ride harsh acceleration high performance driving reduces range Robo
taxi network is gonna want its vehicles to maximize range they're gonna drive in
chill mode they're gonna drive in a mode that maximizes the range an important
thing to think about for achieving these goals it has to do with vehicle
efficiency if you look at this chart of vehicle efficiency you'll see that
Tesla's iron that are the top they have the lowest efficiency ratio it's the
second column from the right that's the critical column you can see
that the audio a Tron has got an 8.3 efficiency ratio that's kilowatt hours
over range overweight that the Tesla's have gotten down from the Model S
standard range they've gotten you know increasingly better numbers down to the
best number so far as that Tesla Model Y long range rear-wheel drive has an
efficiency ratio of 5.8 the column to the right is watt hours per mile the
Tesla Model 3 standard range plus has the best if watt hours per mile number
getting close to 200 watt hours per mile if Tesla can get the efficiency ratio
significantly lower than that five point eight number getting it down to five
point six five point five are better if Tesla can make a vehicle that weighs
2,500 pounds then they can get watt hours per mile down much lower to maybe
a hundred and fifty or less and that will mean you can get 200 miles of range
or close to it on a twenty five kilowatt hour battery pack you really need to get
it down to 125 watt hours per mile but maybe if you can get a hundred eighty
miles of range that's good enough why is 180 or 200 miles of range good
enough we as Tesla fans as people who want to own Tesla's we want a vehicle
with more range but the purpose of these vehicles is no longer about what we want
for our car that we are keeping in our garage the purpose of these vehicles is
for the Robo taxi network if you have a vehicle with 180 miles of range in its
pack and you drive it on an average of 20 miles an hour during the day and you
do eight hours of driving in the in the morning into the afternoon at 20 miles
an hour you've got 160 miles that's within the hundred eighty mile pack and
then you charge it in the middle of the day when there's a little bit of lull
you find a moment you charge it and you go out for another eight hours and you
do another 160 miles and you've covered 320 miles that day you've transported a
lot of people where they needed to go and you did it all on that 180 mile pack
maybe a 200 mile pack if you can get there but 180 mile pack should be enough
or a lot of what the Robo taxi network is designed to do by reducing the
battery pack to 25 kilowatt hours instead of 50 kilowatt hours or
higher you're doubling the number of vehicles that Tesla can make by doubling
the number of vehicles that Tesla makes you expand the Robo taxi Network you
expand the learning so the Robo taxi network dojo the software learns faster
and becomes a better driver faster so three scenarios I see for the Tesla
model for rear-wheel drive one scenario that I think is the most likely is a
2500 pound Kuwait a 25 kilowatt hour battery pack an efficiency ratio of 5.6
which is only slightly better than the efficiency ratio in the tesla model why
that gets watt-hours per mile down to 140 so if you have a 25 kilowatt hour
pack at 140 watt hours per mile you get a hundred and eighty miles of range on
your 2500 pound vehicle if you go to a 30 kilowatt hour pack which might make a
lot of sense if you can get a slightly better efficiency ratio you get the watt
hours per mile to 143 not quite 140 your weight is 2,600 pounds because the extra
five kilowatt hours a battery way something you get to an EPA range of 210
miles which is better again for what we want in our garage for our personal
vehicle we want more range but that's us for certain markets like China and India
and Africa it may very well be that a 200-mile range is plenty for what most
people are doing and for the Robo taxi Network that 200 miles of range is great
I am projecting that the goal is to have a smaller battery pack and that will
enable you to get more vehicles on the road the model 4 will have a curb weight
of around 2,500 pounds or 1130 kilograms that lighter weight will enable the
vehicle to go farther on a watt hour of electricity by reducing the cost of
manufacturing by reducing the amount of batteries needed by making it more of in
a more efficient manner Tesla will be able to get the cost of this vehicle
down as low as $10,000 to produce currently the model 3 model why they're
around $30,000 to produce they believe they're gonna be able to get the
production cost down to $25,000 so the current cost of row model three
Robo taxi is less than $38,000 we expect that number to improve over time okay
maybe it ends up being $25,000 or less but if you go with a smaller lighter
vehicle with a smaller battery pack and you produce it in higher volume you're
able to spread the capital expenditures the capex over more vehicles that will
reduce the cost and they can get the cost of an individual vehicle their cost
tesla's costs down to $10,000 and maybe sell that vehicle for $15,000 if they
sell them at all I think Tesla's gonna stop selling cars check out this video
where I explain why Tesla is gonna stop selling cars the model 4 will be a hyper
efficient smaller 4 passenger compact utility vehicle the target will be 200
miles of range I know this is surprising people are used to talking about getting
longer range but I am predicting that this vehicle will only need 200 miles of
range might even be as low as 180 miles of range why does this matter Tesla has
been battery constrained for a long time they're just not producing enough
batteries to produce all the vehicles they want to give to so if they are able
to produce vehicles with smaller battery packs that will enable them to make more
vehicles right now a typical Tesla has a 50 kilowatt hour battery pack the model
3 and the model y both start around 50 kilowatt hours if Tesla's able to make a
vehicle with a 25 kilowatt hour battery pack they'll be able to make twice as
many vehicles that's the key you want more vehicles on the road because more
vehicles makes the Robo taxi network more viable more vehicles on the road
more electric vehicles on the road takes more ice vehicles off the road
accelerates the transition to sustainable energy and transportation a
smaller lighter vehicle will be easier to produce with Tesla's advances in
manufacturing with streamlined manufacturing with the model wise whole
frame casting possibly with a stainless-steel body
that doesn't use paint maybe a softer thinner steel than what they're using in
cyber truck that might allow some limited stamping or pressing I predict
that when Tesla gets this model or model for going in China because of the
streamlined manufacturing because of the reduced size of the vehicle and because
of the smaller battery pack a single Giga factory or Terra factory will be
able to produce two million vehicles a year from just one factory so this is
where we're heading with a revolution in automotive body engineering that Elon
has talked about for Berlin with whole frame casting that we've talked about
before that's going to be used in the model Y and will be used in the model
for with smaller battery packs with smaller vehicles with reduced
manufacturing cost with reduced material costs with increased production we're
gonna see the Tesla Model 4 is going to be a massive massive change in Tesla's
production and a massive change in how the world operates vehicles
it's a massive acceleration a step change toward sustainable energy and
transportation and otherwise in our world it's gonna be fantastic if you
want to learn more about why Tesla is going to stop selling cars check out
this video if you want to learn more about vehicle-to-grid
check out this video or this video and if you want to learn about neuro-link
check out this video thank you so much for watching