For decades, the fear of running out of oil was one of the most recurrent forecasts and
at the same time the one that generated the most headlines, alarm and controversy. It was
even a course subject or, at least, a warning, even in schools. Do you remember?
Perhaps this was largely because the availability of usable energy sources in the past
was much more limited than it is today. So much so that, as the bad omens were
never fulfilled, the prophecies were postponed again and again and again.
One day the long-awaited end of oil would be upon us!
("The world will run out of oil in 10 years." – U.S. Bureau of Mines, in 1914)
("The world will run out of oil in 13 years." – U.S. Department of the Interior,
in 1939 and 1950) ("The world will run
out of oil and other fossil fuels by 1990." – Paul Ehrlich, The Limits to Growth, in 1972)
("The world will run out of oil in 2030, and other fossil fuels in 2050." – Paul Ehrlich,
Beyond the Limit (2002)) As you can see, not a single
one nailed it. Of course, what all these people never took into account was the
technological evolution that human beings would continue to nurture over the years.
And we are not only talking about oil. The fear of running out of an abundant energy
source was a constant among journalists, analysts and experts of all kinds.
In fact, today when we talk about fossil fuels, what we usually care most about is pollution,
but the truth is that for years it was not a question of environmental awareness but of fear,
fear of running out of supplies. In any case, the point is that we are
in the 21st century and, with the exception of nuclear energy, the whole world seems to
be moving towards a future without fossil fuels. The whole world? No, not the whole
world! Along the lines of Asterix's village, there is one country populated by unyielding
samurai that is resisting against all odds. In recent years, Japan has gone against the global
trend. Not only has it not reduced its consumption of fossil fuels, it has actually increased it.
You see, 2011 was something of a turning point for Japan. The earthquake and the subsequent tsunami
with its devastating effects on the Fukushima nuclear power plant changed the country's approach
to energy. If up to that point the Japanese had embraced nuclear power, suddenly things were
different. They wanted to look for alternatives. The Fukushima incident resulted in many of the
country's nuclear reactors being shut down, a situation that continues to this day.
Obviously all that power had to be supplied in some other way.
Yes, with renewables but also, initially, with oil and gas, lots and lots of gas.
So much so that in 2016, primary energy sources from fossil fuels came to account for more
than 90% of all national consumption, In a country with as few usable natural
resources as Japan, this meant that more than 80% of its energy needs had to be
covered by imports. Japan is one of the most energy-dependent countries in the world.
The thing is that it set off all the alarm bells in Tokyo. And it was not just an
environmental issue, but also and above all a strategic, economic and geopolitical issue.
For a country like Japan to depend entirely on the supply of fossil fuels of foreign origin
and brought in by ship is a huge risk to national security. Especially in an
era when Xi Jinping has turned geopolitics upside down in this region of the world.
For years, Japanese politicians bet on nuclear energy as the best way to gain autonomy. But
what happens if you no longer want it or can no longer count on it electorally? Let's just
say that nuclear is not exactly the most popular energy source in Japan right now.
And precisely for this reason, the Japanese all threw themselves into the development of renewable
energies as if there were no tomorrow, especially solar energy. But of course,
replacing nuclear energy is a tall order. So the question, the big question on our minds is,
what is the solution that the Japanese have put on the table? What exactly have they come
up with? Do they have any original ideas?
Well, although one of the theories may surprise you, one of the solutions to this whole mess is
to become something like the new gas sheiks. Yes, to become major producers at all costs. But there
is one problem: they don’t have any gas. At least not what we all know as conventional natural gas.
And right here, at this point, the time has come to unveil what could become one of Japan's great
strategic gambles: methane hydrate. Have you ever heard of this compound?
I guess most of you haven't, am I wrong? Well... pay attention because we are going
to tell you what it consists of, how you can take advantage of it and what exactly Japan
has in mind for it. Listen up.
(FLAMMABLE ICE)
Yes, you heard it right. We haven’t gone crazy. There is an "ice" that
if you hold a flame to it, it ignites. It is called methane hydrate and is found
in enormous quantities all over the planet. Specifically under the ocean floor. And,
take note, because it is precisely its location that makes it one of the most desirable,
but at the same time also one of the most controversial raw materials.
After all, not only are there unique and fragile ecosystems on the ocean floor,
but extracting raw materials from the depths is a risky business.
But to understand the importance of this resource, we have to put environmental considerations
aside for a moment and focus on its enormous potential, which I think may surprise you.
Why? Well, methane hydrate is the most abundant source of carbon on Earth. It
accounts for an estimated one-third of all the carbon on the planet. And this is a huge deal,
because estimates of global methane hydrate reserves from the US Department of Energy
suggest that its energy power could exceed that of all other known fossil fuels.
That is precisely why China is also testing the extraction of this resource
in the South China Sea. And indeed it is something that Beijing could be taking into
account when extending its maritime claims. However, we are talking about a compound
that is highly unstable, highly flammable and particularly sensitive to pressure and
temperature. These characteristics mean that its extraction is far from being as
simple as traditional mining, that is digging, collecting and transporting it to the mainland.
So why are we talking about Japan and not other countries when we refer to this flammable ice?
Well, take a close look at this map for a better understanding. Each of the green dots refers to
known deposits of methane hydrate in the world. As you can see, the highest known concentration
of this raw material is located precisely around Japan.
The Japanese coastline is literally dotted with deposits of this compound. This is largely due
to the confluence of tectonic plates and the huge sedimentary deposits off its coast.
So it’s not so bad! At least there’s something good about being one of the
most seismic-prone areas of the planet! Right?
Well, you see, in this case the trade-off is that Japan is one of the countries with the largest
reserves of methane hydrate on the planet. To give you an idea, the Japanese government
estimates that there are at least 24.7 trillion cubic feet, that’s 7 trillion cubic meters of
methane hydrate in offshore deposits in its territory. That could be enough to
meet Japan's entire gas consumption for almost a century. And there could be much more hydrate.
Precisely for this reason there is little doubt that methane hydrate extraction could
guarantee energy supply for a very, very long time. Obviously not only in Japan.
But... let’s take a minute, because it's not that simple. The problem is that we still don't
know very well how to take advantage of it, in particular how to extract and process it.
Well, today there are two ways to do it. One, let's call it conventional, and another,
let's say a little more revolutionary, which is what Japan is trying to develop.
The traditional way is to extract this resource by drilling into the seabed at depths of about 3,200
feet, that’s around 1,000 meters. Keep in mind that the deposits are not in the water itself,
but are located several hundred feet below the seabed, which implies additional complexity
and such high costs that, at present, this option is not commercially viable.
And then there is the more revolutionary way, which is what Japan is working on.
Companies like Modec and Mitsubishi Shipbuilding are developing extraction
vessels that are capable of safely extracting methane hydrate deposits closer to shore.
This would be done by "puncturing" the seabed until reaching the reservoir, and letting the
methane hydrate rise to the extractor vessel, which in turn could rely on other auxiliary
vessels to transport it to shore or even store it and transform it into methane gas in situ.
Seems simple, doesn't it? Well, the truth is that it is not
at all. The technical complexity comes above all, as we mentioned before, because of the instability
of this resource and also because of the risk of contamination, since, if it is not done properly,
high quantities of methane could be released into the sea and then into the atmosphere.
And obviously, this is not good either near or far from the coast, but near is even worse.
What’s more, beyond the risks, the extraction itself is technically
complicated. Let's say that during the drilling process there is a risk
of sand or anything else entering the reservoir through the borehole,
and that could destabilize the methane hydrate to the point of rendering it unusable.
Anyway, that's what they're working on. The goal is to get gas, gas and more gas, and make it as
cheap as possible for the Japanese. But let’s not miss a key detail here:
Japan aspires to become a hydrogen-producing powerhouse, producing hydrogen precisely
from the gas extracted from methane hydrate deposits. A kind of "Little Red Hen” approach.
And as we covered recently in a video about hydrogen – which by the way,
I’ll link for you in the description – the implications could be enormous.
But wait a minute, so long as we are talking about methane hydrate, what on earth is hydrogen
doing here? Listen up.
(JAPAN'S SPRINGBOARD TO HYDROGEN?) Well, as we told you in the hydrogen video,
this fuel can be produced in several different ways. The most common is to produce it using coal,
natural gas or, more recently, renewable energies as well.
Well, here is the key to Japan's energy intentions: to extract
methane hydrate and use it to produce hydrogen. To give you an idea, one cubic meter of methane
hydrate can produce approximately 160 cubic meters of methane gas, which can then also be converted
into hydrogen. In this way, countries with large methane hydrate deposits, such as Japan,
could move very quickly to hydrogen and use it as a clean fuel that is not dependent on imports.
In fact, hydrogen is an increasingly important pillar of the Japanese government's energy
strategy, which hopes to boost hydrogen consumption to over 20 million tons by
2050. A relatively high target – especially if we take into account that per unit weight the
energy output of hydrogen is three times that of gasoline – but one that will only
be possible to achieve if production costs can be substantially reduced.
Thus, the Japanese government's plan is to reduce the cost of hydrogen production from 100 to 20 yen
per cubic meter. That is, from 91 to 18 cents. And to achieve that goal, among other things,
the country needs a very competitive energy supply. Potentially methane hydrate.
Not only that, but producing hydrogen from methane hydrate gas would be cleaner than from
other sources, as methane hydrate emits 30% less carbon dioxide when burned than coal or oil does.
The question is, will it be possible to harness methane hydrate on a commercial scale,
and will it be economically viable? And then another question to ask is...
will the take off of hydrogen accelerate thanks to methane hydrate?
(Japan eyes undersea 'fire ice' as source of clean-burning hydrogen - Nikkei Asia)
As you can see, this is the energy revolution that Japan is trying to enter.
A strategy that would then be complemented by carbon capture technologies. In this way,
Japan could achieve enormous energy autonomy. But will it ever be feasible? That is not clear,
but for the record, in 2017, the Land of the Rising Sun did manage to extract
methane hydrate for 24 days without any technical incident through its
experimental project in the Nankai pit. Not only that, the government believes it
will be able to get commercial methane hydrate projects off the ground between
2023 and 2027. Or at least that is what its latest Strategic Energy Plan says.
So do you think that we should take advantage of the gas that is "dormant" in methane hydrate
deposits on a massive scale? Or do you think that this type of extraction should
not be carried out under any circumstances due to the environmental risks involved?
Leave us your opinion below, in the comments. And as always,
if you found this video interesting, don't forget to like and subscribe to Visualpolitik.
Once again, thank you for being there. Take care and see you next time.