In the first half of September, trends of the previous weeks continued in Ukraine.
Main battles are going on the Zaporizhia front, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine
have continued their slow advance through heavily fortified open fields.
The Ukrainian command is giving signals of optimism about the potential decisive
breakthrough in this area, while Russians are building further defensive structures
in the occupied areas. Welcome to the latest update of Kings and Generals on the unprovoked
Russian invasion of Ukraine, covering the main events of the first half of September.
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The Zaporizhia front remains the main theatre of war in Ukraine. Ukraine continued making gradual
progress on two main axes of advance - the Orikhiv and Velika Novosilka sectors, and another axis,
which seems auxiliary - along the river Dnipro. On September 2, the Guardian published an interview
with the commander of the Ukrainian forces on the Zaporizhia front, Brigadier General
Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who claimed that the AFU has breached the first line of Russian defense and is
currently making progress toward the second line of defense. Most probably, Tarnavskyi talks about
the Ukrainian advance in the Orikhiv sector, where the Ukrainian army has broken through a heavily
mined and fortified area to liberate Robotyne and has since then breached the first Surovikin line.
According to Tarnavskyi, the Russian army had spent 60% of its time and resources on creating
the first defensive line, and only 20% on each of the second and third defensive lines. But at this
point, Russians are already busy strengthening their defensive lines and building new defensive
structures in preparation for advancing Ukrainian troops. They may not have sufficient time to build
as intricate defensive lines, as Ukrainians are currently facing on the Zaporizhia front,
which includes tunnels, strongholds, minefields and a system of trenches,
but if Russians have sufficient human resources to man all these fortifications and lines,
it is unlikely that the task of Ukrainian forces there will become much easier.
In this period, the AFU have expanded its area of control around Robotyne towards Novoprokopivka
and Verbove and has advanced beyond Surovikin’s anti-tank ditches and dragon teeth. The Ukrainian
army has also renewed its assault on Novodonetske and Novomaiorske in the Velyka Novosilka section.
At the beginning of the counteroffensive, Ukrainian assaults on these villages were
repelled, and it has been a while since battles there had been reported. As of September 11,
battles in Novomaiorske have been ongoing. The AFU has also made a small advance south of Urozhaine,
along with capturing Russian positions on the southern outskirts of Kamyanske along the river
Dnipro. Russian military bloggers and commanders like Khodakovsky continue to bemoan the lack of
Russian counter-battery on the Zaporizhia front, claiming that Ukraine is expending more artillery
shells than Russia, which would have seemed impossible at the start of the war. Another
important news from the Zaporizhia front is that Russia is adapting its logistics to the threats
it is facing. It is reported that they have become less reliant on ammunition depots near the front
lines, as most of the supplies are now carried out by trucks and other vehicles in order to mitigate
the risk of HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles. On the Kherson front, Ukrainians continued
launching raids on the left bank of Dnipro, including in areas of Oleshky and Kinburn Spit.
Earlier, we assessed that the AFU’s bridgehead near Kozachi Laheri had been defeated by the
Russians; however, on September 9, arguably, the most prominent Russian Telegram channel
dedicated to the war in Ukraine - Rybar stated that Ukraine has “small bridgeheads
on the left bank of Dnipro near the Antonivskyi and railway bridges, on the Oleshky island, and
west of Kozachi Laheri,” which may indicate that Ukrainians are in still in control of the latter.
Spokeswoman of the Ukrainian army Nataliya Humenyuk said on September 10 that “The AFU
has a certain stronghold on the left bank of the Dnipro,” but did not go into further details due
to the necessity of informational silence on this matter. Still, we do not have conclusive
evidence about the existence of a bridgehead near Kozachi Laheri, but the aforementioned statements
may indicate that Ukrainian operations on the left bank of Dnipro consist not only of raids.
On the Donbas front, heavy battles continue in Mariinka. This small town has turned into
a pile of rubble after more than a year of combat. In early September,
it was reported that Russians had finally managed to capture most of the town, pushing the Ukrainian
defenders to the western outskirts of the town, only to be pushed back again.
Marrinka remains contested as of September 11. On September 8, the 59th Mechanized Brigade advanced
into Opytne, getting closer to the Donetsk airport, which was the ground of the heaviest
battles at the start of the war in Donbas in 2014. Battles continue in the Bakhmut section as well.
The Ukrainian Lyut Assault Brigade and other units have liberated most of Klischiivka, pushing
the Russian army to the northeastern edge of the town. Ukrainian pressure has also forced Russians
out of Andriivka on the southern flank of Bakhmut. On the North Luhansk front, Russians have managed
only incremental gains south of Vilshana, along with gaining some ground towards Novojehorivka.
The Ukrainian command has been raising alarm about the gathering of a large number of Russian troops
and equipment on this front for weeks, but so far, the Russian progress here has been quite small.
There have also been two notable events related to marine warfare. On September 11, Ukrainian special
forces captured an oil and gas rig called the Boika Towers situated between the Zmiinyi Island
and Crimea. This installation was occupied by Russia in 2015 and according to Ukrainians,
had been used as a military warehouse and a staging platform for its missiles and helicopters.
Also, on September 13, Ukraine launched an attack on Sevastopol bay, damaging
the Rostov-on-Don (B-237) submarine and Ropucha-class landing ship Minsk,
along with Russia’s main Black Sea fleet shipbuilding and maintenance plant, SevMorZavod.
Such attacks are the continuation of Ukraine’s tactic to degrade Russia’s
naval potential in the Black Sea at the time, when the Dardanelles Straits are closed to its
warships and are going to help Ukraine to defeat the Russian blockade of its ports.
There is no denying that Ukraine’s progress in its counteroffensive on the Zaporizhia front and
around Bakhmut has been modest. We have already touched upon its reasons many, many times in our
different videos, including the one which is specifically dedicated to the analysis of the
counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces are fighting in the hardest of circumstances, where battles
often go literally for each house, each pile of rubble and each treeline. They do not have air
superiority or a noticeable manpower advantage, which are conventional pre-conditions for mass
offensive operations. And yet, they are making progress and breaching well-prepared defensive
lines as we speak. On September 11, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, General Milley, stated
that Ukraine has 30-45 days of “fighting weather” left. However, the Ukrainian Military Intelligence
Chief Budanov has insisted that the onset of cold and rainy weather will not stop the AFU.
“It will be harder to fight in cold, dampness and mud. But fighting will continue. The
counteroffensive will continue”. Indeed, Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kherson concluded only in
November, while Russia’s attack on Bakhmut picked pace in the winter. Cold weather and rain make any
military operation much more difficult, but not impossible. So, it looks like the Ukrainian army
will continue its efforts of advancing towards the Azov Sea and cutting the land bridge to Crimea for
as long as its offensive capacity permits. The Ukrainian government is boosting its internal
production and working to get more foreign military aid from its allies. On September 3,
the now-former minister of defense, Oleksii Reznikov, who was later replaced by Rustem Umerov,
claimed that in the Autumn of 2023, Ukraine will have a boom of local drone production.
The Ukrainian government is also adopting measures to make it harder to avoid mobilization,
indicating that it is preparing for a long war, which has been hinted at by high-ranking
officials, including President Zelenskyi. To make sure that the Ukrainian army maintains its current
level and even exceeds it for the long war, they have to ensure that Western support keeps coming.
On September 1, the UK military industry giant BAE Systems signed a deal to produce weapons
and light artillery in Ukraine. Also, on that day, Politico reported that Kyiv will receive
the first 10 Abrams M1A1 tanks in mid-September following the completion of training of the first
group of tank crew. On September 2, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that the United States would
supply AMRAAM missiles worth 192 million dollars. On the following day, Zelenskyi stated that France
had joined the group of countries that would train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets.
On September 4, Belgium promised 8 RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles to Ukraine. On September 5,
Germany pledged Biber armored bridgelayers, Zetros trucks, ammunition for Gepard air defense guns,
small weapon ammunition, grenades and other equipment. On September 6,
the United States announced another military aid package to Ukraine, which includes depleted
uranium ammunition for Abrams tank, 190 MRAP mine-resistant wheeled armored vehicles,
HIMARS ammunition, 155-mm and 105-mm artillery shells, equipment for the Ukrainian air defense,
81-mm mortar shells, and small weapon ammunition. Ukraine will also receive more than 150 drones of
its own choosing from the French company Delair. On September 7, the British government announced
that it had started providing aviation security to protect grain-carrying ships from Ukraine.
The press release from Downing Street stated that "We will use our intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance to monitor Russian activity in the Black Sea. As part of
these surveillance operations, RAF aircraft are conducting flights over the area to
deter Russia from carrying out illegal strikes against civilian vessels transporting grain."
While Russia is likely saving its cruise missiles for another mass wave of attacks on the Ukrainian
energy infrastructure for cold months, it has continued targeting the Ukrainian port
infrastructure, mostly in Odesa, with Shahed drones ever since the grain deal stopped.
Debris of one of these drones fell on Romanian territory, which was at first strongly denied
by the Romanian government, only to be later admitted. Even though this was most likely not
intended by Russia, the activation of the British airforce in the Black Sea and debris of Russian
drones on the NATO territory demonstrates that while risks of escalation between NATO and Russia
are not big, they are not non-existent either. On September 9, Lithuania delivered 1.5 million
rounds of ammunition to Ukraine, while Japan pledged 24 demining cranes. Also, on that day,
Zelenskyi stated that Germany would give more Gepard anti-aircraft guns to the Ukrainian army.
On September 11, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced a humanitarian aid package
worth 2.3 billion USD for Ukraine. Germany pledged a further 40 Marder infantry fighting
vehicles and two Skynex air defense systems. On September 12, Denmark announced a military aid
package worth 833 million dollars, which includes unspecified tanks, infantry fighting vehicles,
tank ammunition and anti-aircraft guns. Ukraine will be needing more tanks, armored vehicles,
demining equipment, drones, missiles and other weapons to maintain its offensive momentum,
along with further air defense systems to protect its cities and critical infrastructure and its
forward units on the battlefield. There have been reports in the American media
about the US government creeping ever closer to giving ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine,
but it is not the first time, so it would make sense to wait for the official announcement.
Russia is also talking to its very small number of allies to boost its offensive
potential. On September 12, Putin met with another international pariah, Kim Jong Un,
in Vladivostok to presumably agree on the supply of an unspecified amount of shells and other
military equipment to Russia in exchange for grain, oil, money and military technologies.
According to the chief of Israeli intelligence, David Barnea, Iran intends to give mid and
long-range missiles to Russia. Earlier, it was reported that Iran has so far been
reluctant to give them to the Kremlin in fear of further international sanctions and isolation,
but Barnea’s claim may indicate that there has been a shift on this matter.
The Kremlin is also deploying new forces to Ukraine and continues its mobilization efforts.
According to the Ukrainian military intelligence, Russia currently has 420k soldiers in Ukraine,
not counting the Rosgvardiya and special units, 2260 tanks (15-20% of which are T-54/62 tanks),
5260 armored vehicles, 3050 artillery systems, 920 multiple rocket launchers; 360 airplanes,
320 helicopters, 64 warships and boats and five submarines. Budanov has also claimed that the
Russians have created the 25th Combined Arms Army and deployed it to the Kupiansk sector of
the front, transferring the 41st CAA from there to Southern Ukraine. The former Russian president
and the part-time horseman of the apocalypse, Dmitry Medvedev, stated on September 3 that 280k
people have signed contracts with the Russian army in 2023, which include people who previously
fought in paramilitary companies like Wagner and other so-called volunteer units. So, many of these
people have already been fighting in Ukraine, and the bulk of them have signed contracts with the
Russian army following Shoigu’s decree requiring all volunteer formations to sign contracts
with the Ministry of Defense. The Russian Duma Deputy Gurulev claimed that the plan was to sign
contracts with as many as 420k people before the end of 2023. The Russian government will
likely continue conducting mobilization efforts to bolster its ranks in Ukraine without officially
declaring mobilization in order to avoid any public discontent. Russia is also intending
to boost its internal production. According to Reuters, Russia is planning to increase
the artillery shell production to 2 million per year, along with manufacturing 200 tanks annually.
These figures are insufficient to cover the Russian usage in Ukraine since the Russian
army was estimated to use 10-11 million shells in 2022 and has lost at least 2300 tanks since the
start of the war, according to the Oryx blog. There have been new developments with regard
to the grain deal as well. Putin has been talking with Turkish president Erdogan in
hopes of getting concessions in exchange for the restoration of the grain deal. Russia is
still demanding the reconnection of the Russian Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT, and insurance of Russian
food and fertilizer cargoes. Erdogan called on the G20 leaders to accept Russia’s demands
in return for the continuation of the grain deal, but the issue has not been resolved yet.
In his interview with CNN, Zelenskyi reiterated that while Ukraine had been waiting for Western
supplies Russia was preparing for Kyiv’s counteroffensive. As he said,
there is not going to be a happy ending to the counteroffensive because it is not a movie,
and simply too many Ukrainians have been lost in this war, even though he remains optimistic about
Ukraine’s prospects in this war. The diplomatic resolution of this war still remains unlikely,
as Putin intends to continue this tragic invasion he has started, while the Ukrainian government
wants to keep on fighting until they liberate all their lands recognized by international law.
In the meantime, losses continue mounting for both sides. According to the Oryx blog,
the visually confirmed losses for Russia as of September 12 are 2310 tanks, 4695 vehicles,
251 command posts and communication stations, 921 artillery systems and vehicles, 265 multiple
rocket launchers, 89 aircraft, 105 helicopters, and 300 drones. For Ukraine, these are 648 tanks,
2021 vehicles, 17 command posts and communication stations, 397 artillery systems and vehicles,
50 multiple rocket launchers, 71 aircraft, 35 helicopters, and 185 drones.
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