THIS WAS THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
HEADLINE ON NOVEMBER THE 13TH,
1959.
DATELINE, BERLIN.
HE'S GERMAN'S JAIL BUYER OF
BLUE JEANS.
THESE GERMAN COMMUNIST HAVE
JAILED 18 AGE OVER TWO MONTHS
BECAUSE HE BOUGHT BLUE JEANS
AND WEST BERLIN.
THE JUDGE TOLD THE 18 YEAR OLD
AT THE SENTENCE WOULD SERVE AS
A WARNING TO CERTAIN YOUNG
PEOPLE WHO ARDENTLY WANT BLUE
JEANS FOR ROCK AND ROLL.
THROUGHOUT THE COLD WAR, BLUE
JEANS, AND IN PARTICULAR, LEVI
BLUE JEANS, RAY COVETED, AND AT
TIMES, FOR ABETTED ITEM AND
SOVIET UNION.
BUT SOVIET TEENS DEMANDED VICE.
SO MUCH, SO THAT LEVI GENES
STARTED GETTING SMUGGLED INTO
THE SOVIET UNION, LIKE
NARCOTICS.
THEY WERE SOLD FOR OUTRAGEOUS
PRICES.
NO, TO STOP THE SMUGGLING,
THESE GERMAN GOVERNMENT FIRST
STARTED TO MANUFACTURE THEIR
OWN KNOCK OFFS.
THAT DIDN'T WORK.
THEN THE GOVERNMENT BULK
PURCHASED 800,000 PAIRS OF LEVI
JEANS, AND HAD THEM LITERALLY
AIRLIFTED FROM THE UNITED
STATES SO THAT THEY CAN SIDE
DISTRIBUTING THEM RIGHT AWAY.
WELL, TODAY, ONCE AGAIN, IN
2022, LEVI GENES HAVE HALTED
THEIR SALES AND RUSSIA, JOINING
A GROWING CHORUS OF COMPANIES.
DISNEY, WARNER BROTHERS, SONY,
UNIVERSAL, VERMONT, ALL
STOPPING FILM RELEASES AND
RUSSIA.
MICROSOFT, APPLE, SAMSUNG, HP,
AND UNTIL STOPPING NEW SALES.
NETFLIX SAYS BULLDOG, TIKTOK
WILL NOT ALLOW POST BY RUSSIAN
USERS.
FLYING OUT OF RUSSIA IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE NOW, AS IS BUYING
ANYTHING WITH MAJOR CREDIT
CARDS LIKE VISA, MASTERCARD, OR
AMERICAN EXPRESS.
ALL OF WHICH, IN ADDITION TO
PUNISHING WESTERN SANCTIONS
TAKES A TOLL.
TRY TAKING A DISNEY MOVIE AWAY
FROM A KID, OR AN IPHONE AWAY
FROM THE NIGER.
AND IN ADDITION TO A MASSIVE
GROUND STOP ON WORSENING GOODS
AND SERVICES, THE RUSSIAN
ECONOMY IS SHOWING A REAL
STRAIN.
RUSSIAN INTEREST RATES ARE NOW
24 CENTS.
THE RUBBLE IS WORTH LESS THAN A
PENNY.
MASSIVE INFLATION, THE STATE
MEDIA IS TRYING TO POSE A
POSITIVE SPIN ON THIS INVASION.
IT'S CALLED A SPECIAL MONDAY
OPERATION THERE.
BUT EVEN RUSSIAN CITIZENS WHO
ARE FULLY BOUGHT INTO THE STATE
SPONSORED NARRATIVE ARE GOING
TO HAVE TROUBLE SQUARING UP
WHAT THAT MEANS, AND WHY THEY
CAN'T USE THEIR MASTERCARD
ANYMORE?
AND WHY THEY'RE RUNNING OUT OF
FOOD AND SHOPS, AND WHY THEIR
MONEY IS WORTH NOTHING OF THIS
IS JUST A SPECIAL MILITARY
OPERATION IN UKRAINE.
A LARGE SECTION OF THE RUSSIAN
BUT RELATION IS ALSO OLD ENOUGH
TO REMEMBER THE COLD WAR.
AND THE SOVIET INVASION OF
AFGHANISTAN, AND WON BOTH OF
THOSE THINGS DID TO THEIR
ECONOMY.
AND HOW IT ALL LED TO THE
COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION.
YOU'VE ALREADY SEEN MORE THAN
13,000 ANTI WAR PROTESTERS
ARRESTED ACROSS RUSSIA.
THAT UNREST SEEMS TO BE
BUILDING, DESPITE THE MASSIVE
INCREASED RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
PROTESTING BECAUSE OF A NEW LAW
THAT HAS BEEN PUT INTO PLACE.
IS THE BROADER RUSSIA
POPULATION, INCLUDING MANY THAT
SUPPORT PUTIN, ARE THEY
ACTUALLY GOING TO ACCEPT A
COSTLY WAR OF CHOICE?
AGAINST A NEIGHBOR, AND THE
RESULTING ECONOMIC DEPRIVATION?
OR IS IT POSSIBLE THAT AT SOME
POINT, VLADIMIR PUTIN AND THE
RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT COULD LOSE
CONTROL OF THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE?
JOINING US NOW IS IAN,
PRESIDENT OF THE RACIAL GROUP,
A LEADING GLOBAL RESEARCH AND
CONSULTING FIRM.
HE AND, THANKS FOR BEING HERE.
YOU HAVE STUDIED THIS MORE THAN
MOST.
LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS.
LET'S SAY YOU CAN'T GET THE
REAL INFORMATION, HERE IN
RUSSIA, FOR WHATEVER REASON,
EVERYTHING YOU READ FOLLOWS
OFFICIAL LINE THAT THIS IS A
STRATEGIC OPERATION IN UKRAINE.
IT'S NOT A WAR, IT'S NOT AN
INNOVATION, BUT SUDDENLY YOUR
CREDIT CARD STILL WORK AND YOU
CAN BUY STUFF, AND YOU CAN DO
STUFF, AND YOU CAN SEE STUFF,
AND THINGS AREN'T AVAILABLE ON
THE SHELVES, AND YOUR INTEREST
RATE IS 20%, AND YOUR MONEY IS
NOT WORTH ANYTHING.
AT SOME POINT, PEOPLE ARE GOING
TO SAY, THIS OFFICIAL STORYLINE
DOESN'T JIVE WITH MY LIFE.
>> SOME PEOPLE ARE.
BUT, MOST PEOPLE ARE NOT.
SOME PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE
PRIMARILY YOUNG, EDUCATED,
LITERATE, AND ONLINE.
AT LEAST PREVIOUSLY ONLINE
SINCE EVERYTHING IS SHUT DOWN
IN RUSSIA.
BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
POPULATION IS OVERWHELMINGLY
FED INFORMATION THROUGH STATE
MEDIA.
AND, THAT'S TELEVISION, IT'S
NEWSPAPERS, IT'S NOT DIGITAL.
AND THE LEVEL OF SUPPORT FROM
PUTIN HAS A STORY WE'VE BEEN
EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AMONG THIS
GROUP.
AND IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO
BE.
IF YOU THINK THE UNITED STATES
IS INCREDIBLY DIVIDED, AND THE
PEOPLE ONLY FOLLOW NEWS AND
CABLE ON SOCIAL MEDIA, THAT
THEY AGREE WITH, THAT IS
LITERALLY EXPONENTIALLY LESS
THAN WHAT YOU'RE EXPERIENCING
IN A RUSSIA RIGHT NOW.
AND WE HAVE TO BE AWARE OF THAT,
EVEN AS THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
STARTS TO CRATER, WHICH IT WILL
DO IN SPECTACULAR FASHION IN
THE COMING DAYS.
>> BUT, THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
CRATERING, ON SOME OF THAT WAS
IN PART DUE TO HOW MUCH MONEY
THAT THE USSR OF SPENDING IN
AFGHANISTAN.
AND THE BODY BAGS, AND PEOPLE
COMING BACK DEAD.
BUT A LOT OF IT WAS THE
ECONOMY.
IT WAS HOW BAD THINGS WERE FOR
THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE, WHICH
PROMPTED THEM TO THROW OFF
THEIR SYSTEMS, THEIR POLITICAL
SYSTEMS BACK THEN.
WHY WOULDN'T THE SAME THING
HAPPENED NO, WHEN PEOPLE ARE
FRUSTRATED WHAT 30 YEARS OF
POLITICAL GAIN SEEMED TO BE
EVAPORATING IN FRONT OF THEIR
EYES?
>> BECAUSE, A LOT OF THE
REASONS THAT RUSSIANS BELIEVE,
AGAIN, PUTIN SUPPORTING
RUSSIANS, WHICH IS NOT THE
WHOLE POPULATION, BUT A SOLID
60 TO 70%.
THE REASON WHY THEY BELIEVE THE
COUNTRY HAS FALLEN INTO
DISARRAY, THEY DON'T BLAME
PUTIN.
THEY BLAME THINGS LIKE SHOCK
THERAPY, THEY BLAME NATO, THEY
PLAY IN THE WEST.
SO, WHEN THEY HEAR FROM THE
KREMLIN THAT THE REASON THAT
THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY AS
CRATERING AS BECAUSE OF A WAR,
THEN THE UKRAINIANS HAVE
STARTED, OR SPECIAL MOTOR
OPERATIONS THAT ARE HAPPENING
BECAUSE THE RUSSIANS WERE ABOUT
TO LAUNCH A WAR, OR PERHAPS
THEY WERE COMMITTING GENOCIDE
AGAINST RUSSIANS IN THE
OCCUPIED TERRITORIES.
ABSOLUTELY VERIFIABLY FALSE,
BUT COMPLETELY WITH THE RUSSIAN
KREMLIN NARRATIVE HAS BEEN, NOW,
FOR MONTHS.
THEY'RE GOING TO BUY IT.
COME ON, WE HAVE A STRONG
MAJORITY IN THE UNITED STATES,
BUT PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR TRUMP
TO BELIEVE THE ELECTION WAS
FAKE, AND THEN, FACT A STRONG
MINORITY BELIEVES THAT THEY
SHOULD BE RETURNED TO POWER,
IMMEDIATELY THROUGH VIOLENCE
THAT'S NECESSARY.
THAT'S THE UNITED STATES.
IN RUSSIA, ALI, THIS IS VASTLY
MORE DYSFUNCTIONAL.
AND YOU JUST HAVE TO APPRECIATE
THAT PUTIN DOES HAVE THE
CAPACITY TO DRIVE THAT
NARRATIVE EVEN IN THE CASE OF
WHAT'S GOING TO BE A MUCH WORSE
ECONOMIC COLLAPSE THAN WHEN
ANYONE IN THE UNITED STATES HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR A
CENTURY.
>> WHAT'S THE BLOW BACK ON THE
RUSSIAN WORLD?
WE'VE ALREADY SEEN OIL PRICES
TOPPING 125 BUCKS A BARREL.
A WHOLE BUNCH OF PEOPLE
TWEETING ME TODAY THAT THEY
FILLED UP FOR MORE THAN $4 A
GALLON.
WE ARE SEEING, APPROACHING SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PRICES FOR OIL
AND GASOLINE THAT WE'VE SEEN IN
A WHILE.
THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN ALL OVER
THE WORLD.
WIDOWS HAPPENS IF THIS
CONTINUES?
>> IT'S PROBABLY ABOUT A 1%
CONTRACTION IN GLOBAL GDP THAT
WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN THE
UNITED STATES AND EUROPE.
IT'S A LOT MORE PERSISTENT
INFLATION.
ITS SUPPLY CHAINS BEING MORE
SEVERED AND MORE CHALLENGED.
LONGER TIME FOR YOU TO GET
WHATEVER IT IS YOU'RE TRYING TO
ORDER.
BUT THAT'S REALLY NOT THE
SUFFERING.
THE SUFFERING ARE THE POOREST.
IT'S A COMBINATION, AND WE'VE
SEEN ABOUT 60 MILLION PEOPLE
DIE OF STARVATION IN THE LAST
12 MONTHS AROUND THE WORLD,
WHICH IS HIGHER IN THE PANDEMIC
THAN IT WAS BEFORE THE
PANDEMIC.
THAT'S GONNA BE A HECK OF A
LOST WARS.
WE'VE JUST HAD THE LARGEST
GREEN PRODUCER IN THE WORLD
INVADE THE FIFTH LARGEST GRAIN
PRODUCER IN THE WORLD.
THIS IS GOING TO CAUSE ENORMOUS
CHALLENGES.
THE POOREST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD
ALREADY DON'T GET ENOUGH TO EAT.
IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA.
YEMEN, AFGHANISTAN.
I'M ALSO --
EMERGING MARKETS THAT ARE
SERIOUSLY INDEBTED AND DON'T
HAVE ACCESS TO CREDIT ARE GOING
TO BE MUCH MORE TROUBLE HERE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FINANCIAL
CRISIS IN TURKEY, FOR EXAMPLE,
A LOT OF OTHER MEDIUM INCOME
EMERGING MARKETS THAT HAVE
LIVED THROUGH TWO YEARS OF
PANDEMIC THAT HAVE NOWHERE NEAR
THE CAPACITY TO MAKE THEIR
MIDDLE CLASSES WHOLE THE WAY
THE AMERICANS ARE THE EUROPEANS
HAVE THROUGH THE PANDEMIC.
THEY'RE GOING TO GET SMASHED
RIGHT NOW.
SO IT'S REALLY GLOBAL.
IN THE LAST 40 YEARS
GLOBALIZATION HAS DRIVEN THE
EMERGENCE OF A GLOBAL MIDDLE
CLASS.
THE PANDEMIC AND NOW EVEN WORSE,