How do you see this meeting and tensions over Taiwan really impacting the supply chain issues revolving semiconductors here
moving forward. Yes good morning. Thanks for having me again.
Well I think the geopolitical tensions. Apparently it has. We're going to increase. Look at the agents rebounds overnight.
So I think B the supply chains already be disrupted in the past two years. But if Taiwan
is going to be locked down surrounded by the Beijing military in the coming later weeks based on this announcement I think the
that will most likely to affect the ship export performance on Taiwan. So for that we don't know how
long it will last. But for a short period of time we can expect some of the ships that are manufactured by the TSMC when we'll
have some problem to be shipped out to the ship to the US customers including media MDA or even Apple
core companies. Semiconductor giants in the U.S. and not just US but a globally consumer electronics car. Data centers will all
be potentially be affected if that lockdown persists for longer. Sebastian. David here. So while we do try and figure out what
potential disruptions might be. And by the way it may may or may not happen if it happens potentially big. What's the underlying
underlying forces at work right now within the sector in terms of that. Let's talk about inventories and let's go there. Do are
we continuing to see a draw down in inventories. The inventory actually correction of control has already started
since last quarter a month supply chain. If you look at the inventory data what these are inventory this ratio it has really
shot up to the record high. And the some to some extent is even higher than the dot.com pre dot.com bubble level two decades
ago. So if you look at the number it is kind of scary. And right now we have a macro slowdown. So which means that the
inventory correction is inevitable. Supply chain has started yet but we think that the will continue to last for a few quarters.
I think the TSMC where somebody accompanies the recent earnings call release they talk about there's even three will persist for
like two to three quarters at least from their perspective. So yeah I think that's something that we're going to go through
probably till the first half of next year before we this whole mitre to be cleared out.
Suppose just hold that thought for a second because we're getting more lines out of this meeting taking place between the
President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. They're saying at the moment that is the Taiwanese president they're going to
strengthen their self-defense capability at the moment saying that they can do to work with the United States on Indo-Pacific
security naturally here as well and that they would not back down to a heightened military threat here as well. Meanwhile
central bank governor talking about there being sufficiently sufficient foreign exchange reserves there as well for the
territory. Sebastian. Well you know we look at what's happening in the response we've just had from
China with regards. And one of the things was of course is a export ban on sand. There's not going to be sending sand. How
does that affect the semi side of things. Well I think the impacts will be. I think that Taiwan will be
able to source of sand from the other regions and overall that doesn't account for much of the semiconductor manufacturing. I
think the key thing is that the silicon silicon wafers. And then they can source that from the Japan and
also Taiwanese makers and Germany. So I think that will be that wouldn't be so far we haven't seen see that as a as a key
hurdles or threat to the overall semiconductors.