In the last few years there has been growing uncertainty and concerns over what will the
future jobs be like, especially for those in developed countries...
Robotics, AI, immigration, international competition…
All hot topics.
According to some people, we will have to get used to a future where a job will be considered
a luxury, a world of unemployment on a massive scale.
A world of higher inequality, of poor working conditions, and that’s just for those who
are “lucky” enough to have a job.
And that's not the worst of it…
Most of the people who have foreseen such a critical situation also claim that, unless
major changes take place and we try to slow down this frantic development, our very well-being
will be in serious danger.
Sure, if there are not enough jobs, wealth and production will concentrate in a reduced
but powerful oligarchy of businessmen and companies.
This leads to the questions: How will ordinary people make a living?
Who will pay taxes?
How can the welfare state survive with so much unemployment?
It all sounds pretty terrible, doesn't it?
Almost as if we are going to be facing a terrible storm any year now…
This uncertainty has made it easier for leaders like Donald Trump or Marine Le Pen (among
others) to get a leg up in politics.
Indeed, political leaders who say our society is falling apart and they are the only ones
willing to take action do rather well.
Well, if there is such a threat, they only thing we can do is fight back.
And it is not just immigration we are talking about here, oh no, there is much much more.
“Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers.
Towns, cities and states throughout the U.S. are being hurt - many jobs being lost!”.
Donald Trump.
But, wait just a second…
Are we really heading towards such a dark future?
Will robots really take our jobs and destroy the system as we know it?!
Is it true that unless we take radical action we are in serious danger of losing our jobs?
Well, in order to answer these questions, and look at what lies beneath these statements,
we have to pay close attention to what is currently happening in the world we live in,
and especially what is going on in the greatest and more influential power on Earth.
Yes, we are talking about the United States of America.
(THE END OF EMPLOYMENT?)
Self-driving cars, self-learning machinery, factories without workers, intelligent robots…
Less science-fiction and more science every day…
And, you know what?
This technological wave has just began.
Nanotechnology, biotechnology, genetic engineering, and robotics, seem to be changing the world
as we know it.
These technologies multiply productivity, it even replace human work.
In a Report to the President from 2016, the Council of Economic Advisers in the White
House calculated that 83% of jobs that were paid less than $20 per hour would soon potentially
be automated.
In other words, countries with a faster development in robotics will be the first to suffer from
high (and sudden) unemployment.
Millions and millions of people will become unemployed...
But… the question has to be: Is this really what the future holds?
The future is always uncertain.
But… we can see what is already happening.
Robots have already arrived - we can find them everywhere in today's factories.
And, if we really dive into the figures, we will see that the evidence shows the exact
opposite of what we might expect…
Look at the chart here: the countries using the most robots are the countries with the
lowest rates of unemployment.
And, well, this has an explanation…
Sometimes we consider all the jobs that are lost as a result of this process, but we ignore
all the new jobs that are created as a result of all this automation.
(NEW TIMES, NEW JOBS)
Up until now, the industrial sector is the one where most robots have been used.
In fact, some companies like Ford, already have assembly lines made entirely out of robots.
They have no workers at all.
Yet American industrial production is almost as high as it has ever been.
But, now you’ve got to be wondering what happened to all the industrial jobs?
Well, have a look at this:
That´s right.
In the 1940s, 1 of every 3 jobs in America were industrial jobs.
Now, the number is barely 1 in 12.
That’s four times less!
So, does that mean there are no employment opportunities in the US?
Actually, nothing is further from the truth.
Since the 1940s, the US has created more than 86 million new jobs in the service industry:
transport, finance, entertainment and so on and so forth.
As a matter of fact, there had never been so many workers in this country.
And while we are talking specifically about robotics here, the impact of any new technology
has a similar effect…
Blockbuster, which once was the largest video store and video game renting companies in
America, may have vanished, but in exchange we have new companies like Netflix (or even
YouTube!)
And these kind of companies generate loads of jobs.
But it’s not just in America, and it’s not just robots, or video…
Consider the app industry in Australia.
This new industry has already created more than 113,000 jobs in one of the wealthiest
countries in the world.
And that is not just an Australian phenomenon.
In the United States (and bear in mind this is a new sector being born with the iPhone
just ten years ago) it has created more than 1.5 million jobs.
Banks, supermarkets, insurance and software companies…they all want to have their own
app, and that means new jobs are being created all the time.
Further, as productivity grows, normal working hours are reduced.
So, thanks to technology, we will work less hours…
another bit of great news!
"I think in the next 30 years, people will only work four hours a day and maybe four
days a week.
My grandfather worked 16 hours a day in the farmland and [thought he was] very busy.
We work eight hours, five days a week and think we are very busy."
Jack Ma And, finally, let’s add a little more detail…
Some people, like Bill Gates, have claimed that robots have taken jobs that were previously
done by people, and therefore they should be paying taxes…
And you know what?
I´m not so sure about that…
Robots are just machines after all.
The more machines and technologies we have, the better we will live.
Robots reduce costs and, as a consequence, they reduce the price of goods.
And this allows consumers to work less and buy more.
And this is why governments should boost and encourage investment in technology.
But what is certainly true is that society will have to prepare for this automation process.
This technological change is coming, and it shouldn’t be stopped.
LET´S STOP GLOBALIZATION Those of you who regularly follow VisualPolitik
already know Trump’s has something of an obsession with China.
And it is not just China…
In the last year, Trump has accused Canada, Mexico, Japan and even South Korea of unfair
competition.
He has also claimed that these countries are destroying American jobs.
This is why Trump wants to renegotiate trade agreements, empower protectionist policies
and, if needed, set import tariffs in industries such as the steel industry.
And he wouldn´t be the first president of the US to use these kind of strategies…
We don't need to look any further that George W. Bush, another Republican, who set up important
tariffs to steel imports in 2002.
“President Bush took some of the broadest federal action in two decades to protect a
major American industry today, imposing tariffs of up to 30 percent on most types of steel
imported into the United States from Europe, Asia and South America”
And truth be told: the result wasn't good.
Some studies have estimated that these steel tariffs resulted in the loss of more than
200,000 jobs.
Yep, that policy lead to more unemployment and less competition.
Argentina is another great example: Protectionism has the same result.
And, of course, less exports also mean less jobs.
But that is not the end of it.
Now it is true that, in the last two decades, industrial offshoring has caused the US to
lose many jobs…
But, in a way, thanks to this, countries like China have had an opportunity to develop,
and Chinese businesspeople are now eager to invest in the US, seeing it as a safe place
to make an investment.
In 2016, Chinese companies invested almost $50 billion in the US.
And today, these companies have employed, directly and and indirectly, more than 140,000
Americans.
That´s 9 times more than they were employing in 2009.
That is the case of this businessman, Mr. Dewang, a man who spent, in 2014, $700 million
restoring a factory that General Motors had closed down in Ohio.
And it isn’t just the Chinese companies...
1 in every 5 Americans is currently working for foreign companies.
And remember, as we said before, never have there been so many people working in the United
States.
So, this story of globalization being a factor destroying our economies…well, it seems
like it is just that, a story.
(IMMIGRANTS ARE STEALING OUR JOBS)
You all know that this is one of the biggest “issues” for people, especially in the
United States.
(“They’re taking our jobs.
They’re taking our manufacturing jobs.
They’re taking our money.
They’re killing us.”
Donald Trump.)
That is what Trump has been saying, but the reality is that facts tell a completely different
story.
For instance, in 2016, The United States got 6 Nobel Prizes in Science and Economics.
All of them were awarded to immigrants - people born in a different country that now work
for universities in the United States.
And immigrants tend to be more inclined to entrepreneurship as well.
So, even though immigration only accounts for 15% of the work force in America, immigrants
are involved in creating 1 out of 3 new companies in the US.
And those companies are the ones creating more jobs.
And look, there are two types of immigrants:
On the one hand there are illegal immigrants.
They usually work in more physical jobs, or the jobs Americans don’t usually want.
On the other hand there are legal immigrants.
Half of these immigrants have higher education.
This is a percentage far higher than in people born in the US.
This type of immigration provides vital brain power that the country needs.
They have an entrepreneurial spirit and many of them are responsible for many successful
projects.
Procter & Gamble, Goldman Sachs, Yahoo; Google, Tesla; AT&T, Intel, Ebay, IBM, Citigroup;
UPS; Oracle , Amazon or even Apple are some of the many companies founded or co-founded
by immigrants or the children of immigrants
So, as you can see, the best thing about immigration is that, not only does it not steal jobs from
Americans, it actually creates more jobs for them.
There’s a lot of legends when it comes to predicting the future of our lifestyles, but
the reality is that the facts simply don’t live up to the fear.
And now it is your turn: Are you afraid of being replaced
by a robot?
Leave your answers in the comments as well as in this survey.
Also don’t forget to subscribe to our channel for brand new videos every Monday and Thursday.
Also, don’t forget to check out our friends at the Reconsider Media Podcast - they provided
the vocals in this episode that were not mine!
And as always, thanks for watching!