Day X has arrived.
Mount Fuji, Japan’s most famous volcano,
is erupting for the first time in 300 years.
It’s raining ash, lava and toxic gases
down on the world’s largest city.
Mt. Fuji is located
only 100 km (62 mi) from Tokyo,
where 37 million people live.
But this tall, cone-shaped giant
isn’t just any mountain.
It’s a stratovolcano.
The last time Mt. Fuji erupted
was over 300 years ago.
When it blew up back in 1707,
it blanketed the city in ash.
This volcano sits on top of the Ring of Fire,
the infamous and massive region
of volcanic activity
stretching around the Pacific Ocean.
And when it comes to the likelihood
of Mt. Fuji erupting again,
the scientific consensus is clear.
It could happen soon.
And it could be huge.
Depending on where you were
when Mt. Fuji pops,
you could have a magnificent view
of the eruption.
You’d see a massive plume of ash
rising from the peak.
And you’d spy red magma
pooling along its sides.
If you live on the outskirts of the city
closest to Mt. Fuji,
you could watch the lava flow slowly head
toward your house,
setting fires along the way.
Within just three hours,
you could be among the first
100,000 of people who
need to be evacuated
to other parts of the city.
But even from a safer distance,
the awesome view of the eruption
would be concerning.
Ash would start to rain down on Tokyo.
This would immediately
suspend rail service.
That’s because even a small amount
of debris on the tracks
could set trains off the rails.
A layer of ash as thin as 0.2 cm (0.08 in)
would make landing a plane safely
nearly impossible.
Departing flights would be
grounded indefinitely.
Besides low visibility,
volcanic ash particles could cripple
necessary navigational equipment.
And the heat of a plane's engine
could melt the ash,
creating clumps inside it
that could cause it to fail mid-flight.
You wouldn't be able to drive either.
As the layer of ash grew
to a thickness of 2.5 cm (1 in),
roads would become unusable to cars
with two-wheel drive.
The continuing pile-up
of accidents and traffic jams
would make the jobs
of emergency first responders
increasingly challenging.
Within 24 hours,
the city would effectively shut down.
Cell phone coverage would be disrupted.
And with just 5 cm (2 in) of ash,
thermal power plants
would become inoperable.
Many parts of the city would lose power.
The ash would just keep falling for hours,
days and possibly weeks.
There could be ten times more debris
than what fell after
the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami
in 2011.
But that ash wouldn't just be bad for trains,
cars and electronics.
It would be bad for you too.
At first, you’d experience a runny nose,
wheezing and coughing.
The contaminated air
would make your eyes red and itchy.
If you inhaled too much,
you could eventually develop silicosis.
This condition could permanently scar
and impair your lungs.
And not all districts of the city
would fair equally.
Winds would carry more ash
to some areas and less to others.
Some districts could be buried in
an ash layer up to 30 cm (12 in) thick.
Ordinary life would be
nearly impossible to maintain
in the aftermath of this eruption.
With so many forms
of transportation affected,
many local supply chains would be cut off.
Tokyo would face shortages of food
and medical supplies.
Getting your usual clean water
would also prove challenging
due to contamination.
Not only that,
but the constant rain of ash
could form natural dams along rivers,
putting some areas at risk of flooding.
The eruption of Mt. Fuji
would force nearly one million people
to be evacuated from their homes.
Globally, it would disrupt
supply chains around the world
since no ships would be able to navigate
Tokyo Bay.
Now, Japan is among the top-five
exporters of goods around the world.
And if Mt. Fuji set
Japan's electronics and automobile
exports back,
other countries could take their place.
This could be huge for China and Germany,
who are also big exporters
of electronics worldwide.
Japan could suffer billions of dollars
in economic losses.
But things could always be worse.
The entire Ring of Fire
could erupt all at the same time.
But that’s a story for another WHAT IF.