The Commodities in general is going to do very well and precious
metals, especially, well, so, I'm calling for easily 10,000 on Gold by
the end of the decade, maybe 20,000 silver, you know, at least $400.
I think inflation has peaked.
It's somewhat of a technical thing comparisons year-to-year and prices
because, you know, prices were up a lot in the last year as you move
forward, through the second half of this year.
The comparisons allow you to say, yes, inflation's up, but it's not up
as much as it was.
So part of its technical.
But there's also a, when you look at other parts,
Of the inflation equation, like commodity prices, you're seeing a lot
of those that have rolled over.
Lumber Lumber was seventeen hundred dollars of, you know, a board foot
or whatever in the Futures Market, two years ago.
It's 600 and change today and it was, you know, it Rhythm back up into
the 12 or 1300 area, you know, not that many months ago and now is
back down.
So so you're seeing it in certainly Lumber, which is a house.
Housing-related demand related thing, you've seen some other metals
and other Commodities come down.
It's not, it doesn't mean that your prices at the supermarket or come
down or that you probably something close down etcetera.
That's not what.
Inflation is not a price thing.
It's the relative change in prices over, you know, a broad spectrum of
goods and services.
I think we're pretty close to the
Pick if we haven't seen the peak.
And I actually think we have seen the peak.
I don't know how fast it will come down and frankly.
I don't, I don't know.
The CPI is really the gauge you want to watch, its popular, one to the
gets released and everybody sees it.
But you know, there's the FED watches the consumer deflator, index,
etcetera.
I think we will see that we're going to roll over and it's just the
beginning.
That rollover will have an impact on Market, participants, I think in
a big way to.
So, and by the way, I am, like I said, we may be in recession already
and I think we will be this year.
I think this recession morphs into something much worse as we go
through next year.
So, I'm going for a global bust and have been for a long time as how
this cycle will end.
The reason it turns from just an ordinary recession of something much
worse.
Worse is because we've got debt and derivative levels at levels, not
never in history.
I mean,
We're off the charts in terms of 300 trillion in debt across the
globe.
And that's risen, just in the pandemic from 250 trillion to 300
trilliums a 50 trillion jump in a couple of years.
It just a massive amount of debt and derivatives are in the
quadrillion.
The terms of notional value of derivatives.
As I say, debt is the leverage on the economy.
And derivatives are the leverage on the market.
And what that does when you're going, when you roll over in your head
down, both the economy and the markets, what that does is exacerbated
in a big way.
So I fully expect a huge financial crisis next year.
This to be, you know, the worst downturn economically in the
post-world war, two era.
So I'm not a Pollyanna when I'm talking about this running the stock
market.
It's not because I think things are hunky-dory.
It's
It's because you have everybody position for something right now.
That's not going to happen right now.
Meaning more tightening and and I think so you get get people running
back and then I think the FED if you get the market up to 6,000 and
there's like the 20,000 given that Paul had bought into Dudley's views
on you know, stock.
Market and needing, you know, that that being a sign of access in
terms of financial side.
You can only imagine that whatever pivot they do this summer.
They're going to Pivot back and say, whoops.
Maybe we pivoted too soon.
You know, we're going back to the tight side.
So I think, you know, it's not a straight line.
It's a little convoluted but I do think that's what you're going to
see.
Is It?
Ultimately, it's not that this.
You know, Michael is it's not that the bad news is all over and behind
us.
Once we rally is just that is not straight from here.
We're going to go to do highs and then I'm going for an 80% bear
Market from those high.
So I think people are just premature in thinking the bus does.
Now, you know, the and that's, that's the funny part is the view.
That's really spooking people, as a Fed, doesn't get the damage,
they're causing and they're going to cause a global bust.
I start talking about a global bus several years ago.
People thought I was nuts.
And now that is the forecast that's driving.
The Bears, the has been a long road to get here.
They had a great run in 2020, coming out of March, 20, 20 lows, and
thought, maybe you'd have a few months consolidation of that run and
instead it turned into a 18 months to a year run, consolidation.
And I think we are now out of that consolidation.
They're coming out of that consolidation.
They started to go earlier this year and then unfortunately the rising
rates and a strong dollar kind of sideline them again, but I think we
are poised here.
They are very critical inflection points where both gold and silver
look like, they're ready for big run.
So I am forecasting raised my gold Target back in in my second quarter
letter.
Back in April.
So I'm now looking for 3,000 gold.
I was looking for 2500.
So, in spite of the frustration of how long it's taken to get here.
I actually think the upside this cycle is bigger than it was, and
silver.
I'm still called for $50, which is a big run from, you know, it's down
in the low 20s, and I think I'm probably going to have to raise that
at some point.
So, but for now, $50 my target, I think they will pretty much run.
Coincident with the stock market with the Melt up in the stock market.
So, I think again between now and the end of the year, you should see
that runs in those targets.
And very simply, I think part of it, is that the bond market is going
to start.
The rally rates are going to start to come down that will help gold
and silver.
I think their recognition that maybe the FED is backing away from the
extreme tightening that they were going to do.
Do will help and you know, again the it's not a straight line from
there.
For the next several years.
I do think the bust is going to hit all assets except maybe
treasuries.
So there will be a correction after we have this big rally in gold and
silver pretty Bill, take a pretty good hit the correct and the bust
and then beyond the bust.
I think Commodities in general are going to do very well and press.
Metals, especially well, so, I'm calling for easily 10,000 on Gold by
the end of the decade, maybe 20,000 silver, you know, at least $400.
So those are huge runs.
If you can get to 50 or 60 and this this side of the bus, go through a
correction that can take you down, Thirty forty fifty percent and then
a big run to the end of the decade.
That's how I see and gold.
Same thing, you know run.
The 3,000 maybe a correct back to 2000 and then and then run to
10,000.
Maybe 20.
Minor should should benefit greatly from the price moves in the
medals.
I think the miners pretty much mirrored the metals in terms of long
consolidation, after the August Hot August 20, 20 highs.
They are also looking like they are at an important function Point
whether going to start moving up and
I think he will see that and sectoral stock market be among the top
performers in the next six months, treasury bond market.
I think Bond and general have had a nice correction, as a Titan, and
it looks like they are finding a bottom here.
Just like the stock market.
I think the treasuries, if I'm right about this being the top and
rates for the cycle and then a bus coming.
Late this year or early next door through next year.
The treasury long bond, which is a kind of two three and a quarter can
probably drop to quarter or a half percent next year or so and it
won't be a straight line, the be ups and downs, but I think you're at
the highs and rates or were recently 10-year.
I think which got up to 33 16, I think was a high-water mark a couple
weeks ago, I think.
Can go all the way down to zero.
We may even see - rates on the 10-year, in the midst of the bust.
So over the course of the next 12 months.
The treasury market will be a place where you'll see lots of
appreciation and in the bombs corporates, not quite the same
corporates, you know, the lower quality of the junk and lower
investment quality will get hit in the bust.
They will not be appreciating in the box like treasuries are
But they could rally certainly here during the next several months as
as the FED back to off its tightening.
So I think just because bonds, I think are going to play a pretty big
role here.
I didn't want to leave that out.