Welcome to the Climate and Water Outlook for November 2019 to January 2020.
November and December are likely to be drier than average for almost all of Australia,
however the dry signal looks likely to ease in the new year.
But first, let's look at recent conditions.
October has been drier than average for large parts of Australia, continuing the long-term
dry spell.
Mildura Airport had no rain in October for only the second time since records began in
1946.
Central Queensland had some rain in late October – with several locations receiving more
than 30mm.
Daytime temperatures during October were very much above average for much of Australia.
A burst of heat on the 24th of October brought maximum temperatures more than 12 degrees
above average to parts of the southeast.
Mount Gambier Airport recorded 34.4—their hottest October day on record.
Soils have dried further this month in many areas; the result of low rainfall and high
temperatures during October.
Fires, raised dust and extreme winds affected several parts of the country in eastern Australia,
bringing smoke haze and reduced visibility.
Water storages in southern Australia are generally at the end of their filling season.
While some are now a little higher, many are much lower than they were 12 months ago.
So, what will influence our climate in the coming months?
A very strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to continue well into December—
several weeks later than normal.
The last time we saw an IOD this strong was back in 1997.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole
typically means a hotter and drier than average spring over central and
southern Australia.
In November, we're also likely to be affected by a negative Southern Annular Mode, or negative
SAM.
At this time of year, a negative SAM means an increased risk of hot and dry conditions
for eastern Australia, but cooler and wetter in western Tasmania.
Both the positive IOD and the negative SAM patterns are likely to break down in summer.
With a record-late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon, the movement of the monsoon trough
into the southern hemisphere is also likely to be delayed.
For northern Australia this may mean a late start to the summer monsoon.
So, what does this mean for the outlooks?
November and December are likely to be drier than usual for almost all of Australia, particularly
in the east, but January may see an easing of the dry signal.
Australia's tropical cyclone season typically begins in November.
This year's outlook suggests fewer-than-average tropical cyclones are likely to form in our
region.
But Australia has always had at least one tropical cyclone cross the coast each season,
so those who live in areas affected by tropical cyclones should be prepared.
Turning to streamflow, mostly low flows are expected to continue across much of Australia for
October to December.
Near-median and high flows are likely in some locations that had rainfall in earlier months.
The temperature outlook suggests that days are likely to remain warmer than average
across much of mainland Australia.
This means there's an increased chance of heatwaves,
and windy days will see elevated fire danger, so please take care.
Warmer nights are very likely for large parts of the country, also contributing to the increased
heatwave risk.
So in summary, November to January is likely to see:
many areas drier than average;
a late arrival of the first northern rains;
higher-than-average temperatures;
low streamflows at most locations;
and an increased risk of heatwaves and bushfire.
Thanks for joining us, you can find out more about the outlooks on our website.
We'll see you next time.