>>IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE IOWA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES, MOST
EYES ARE ON BERNIE SANDERS AND HILLARY CLINTON.
WHO WILL WIN?
BUT IN THE END IT MIGHT ACTUALLY BE MARTIN O'MALLEY WHO PROVES
CRUCIAL.
NOT BY HIM ACTUALLY WINNING, BUT BY WHO HIS
SUPPORTERS END UP GOING FOR.
AND THE REASON FOR THAT IS THAT THE
CAUCUSES ARE RUN IN A SORT OF WEIRD, ARCANE, ESOTERIC FASHION
THAT I DIDN'T EVEN KNOW ABOUT PRIOR TO TODAY, BUT I'M
INTERESTED IN THIS NEWS --
>> -- A GROUP THERE BEING A GROUP THAT SUPPORTS ONE
CANDIDATE --
>> WE WILL SHOW YOU THE GRAPH SOON OF HOW LIKELY IT IS THAT HE
REACHES THAT THRESHOLD -- SPOILER ALERT, NOT VERY LIKELY -- SO THIS
IS NOT SIMPLY INTERESTING POLITICAL HISTORY.
THIS IS GOING
TO BE RELEVANT IN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO, BECAUSE IF YOU GET THREE
POINTS OR FIVE POINTS OR SEVEN POINTS, THOSE MIGHT END UP
BECOMING HILLARY OR BERNIE'S THREE, FIVE, OR SEVEN POINTS.
AND THE RACE IS WITHIN THAT IN A LOT OF POLLS.
>> IT'S FUNNY HOW MANY PEOPLE DON'T KNOW THAT IS HOW THE
CAUCUSES WORK, BECAUSE WE KNOW, I'VE KNOWN FOR YEARS.
>> YOU DIDN'T TELL ME UNTIL TODAY?
>>I WAS KIDDING.
SO NOW THEY ARE GOING AFTER, HOW DO YOU GET A
MARTIN O'MALLEY VOTER?
IT SEEMS LIKE IF YOU ARE A MARTIN
O'MALLEY VOTER --
>>YOU HAVE TO FIND THEM FIRST.
>> THAT IS NOT HOW YOU GET THEM, WITH TALK LIKE THAT.
>>THEY WILL SHOW UP AT THE CAUCUS, PARDON MY FRENCH -- SO I
THINK AN O'MALLEY VOTER WOULD BE A NATURAL CLINTON VOTER,
RIGHT?
BECAUSE HE SEEMS SO ESTABLISHMENT, AND SHE WOULD BE
-- SO IT WOULD BE WEIRD FOR AN O'MALLEY VOTER TO GO TO BERNIE.
I THINK IT WILL BREAK TOWARDS CLINTON.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>>FOR ME, THE STRUGGLE IS TRYING TO FIND ONE.
I REMEMBER THAT
CAMPAIGN STOP HE DID WHERE ONE GUY CAME, AND HE WAS LIKE, I'M
NOT EVEN REALLY AN O'MALLEY SUPPORTER, I'M JUST KIND OF HERE.
>>THERE WAS A STORM.
IN O'MALLEY'S DEFENSE, THERE WAS A
STORM.
ONE GUY SHOWED UP AND HE HUNG OUT.
>>BUT THE GUY WASN'T EVEN REALLY AN O'MALLEY SUPPORTER.
I FEEL
LIKE O'MALLEY IS LIKE WHAT CLINTON WAS IN 2008 NOW.
SORT OF
LIKE, IT'S OVER.
JUST STOP.
AND SHE WAS DEAD SET ON, I'M GOING TO KEEP GOING.
WHAT IF OBAMA GETS MURDERED?
WHICH IS WHAT SHE SAID.
O'MALLEY, JUST STOP.
>>EXCEPT AT THE VERY LEAST SHE HAD A LONG PERIOD WHERE SHE
WAS UP BY A LOT, THEN IT WAS GOING BACK AND FORTH.
THEY WERE TRADING PRIMARIES FOR A WHILE, HE NEVER EVEN HAD
HIS MOMENT.
>>HE DIDN'T.
IT'S NOT LIKE HE LOST GROUND, HE NEVER REALLY HAD GROUND.
I KEEP THINKING HE HAS BILLS TO PAY OR SOMETHING.
>>MAYBE HE DOESN'T LIKE HIS HOME LIFE.
I HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT, I APOLOGIZE.
>>I DON'T WANT TO BE AT HOME, I NEED SOMETHING TO DO.
>> IN THE LAST FEW DEBATES OR THE FORUM THEY HAD, I THOUGHT HIS
PERFORMANCE WAS ADMIRABLE.
HE JUST GOT SORT OF, I GUESS -- HE
COULDN'T HAVE KNOWN THAT GOING IN HERE, THERE WAS NEVER REALLY A
WAY.
AND LIKE A YEAR AGO, NOBODY WOULD HAVE KNOWN.
BECAUSE BERNIE
SANDERS WASN'T EVEN A CONSIDERATION AT THAT POINT.
IF
ANYTHING IT WOULD HAVE BEEN JOE BIDEN.
AND I WOULD SAY HIS
CHANCES AGAINST HILLARY WOULD ALWAYS BE LOW, BUT WITH HILLARY,
AND BIDEN, AND HIM ñ MAYBE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY.
>>I COVER THE NEWS ALMOST EVERY DAY, AND I CAN'T TELL YOU WHAT
MARTIN O'MALLEY STANDS FOR OR HOW HE IS DIFFERENT FROM HILLARY
OR BERNIE.
OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD, I CAN'T.
>>IN MANY WAYS HE IS SORT OF SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THEM.
HIS RHETORIC IS CLOSER TO BERNIE, HIS POSITIONS ARE CLOSER
TO HILLARY.
IF YOU GO TO THEIR WEBSITES, HIM AND HILLARY ON
HEALTH INSURANCE, IMMIGRATION, POLICE REFORM --
THEY HAVE VERY SIMILAR POLICIES.
>>I THINK HE SAYS HE IS ONLY REALLY DIFFERENT ABOUT GUN
CONTROL.
THAT'S WHERE HE SAYS THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
HIM AND HILLARY AND BERNIE, HE SAYS HE IS MORE CONSISTENT.
HE IS LIKE THE LITTLE KID IN CLASS THAT KEEPS RAISING HIS
HAND AND NOBODY WANTS TO CALL ON HIM, HE IS SO HYPER AND EXCITED.
>>30 SECONDS, PLEASE?
>>IT IS JUST LIKE, OH.
>>YOU FEEL BAD.
I HAVE BEEN TWEETING ALL THESE JOKES ABOUT
HIM THROUGHOUT THE DEBATES, AND HE WAS IN SOUTH CAROLINA, AND HE
WAS THE ONLY CANDIDATE, AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, TO COME INTO
THE PRESS ROOM AFTERWARDS.
I SAW HIM AND I WAS LIKE, I FEEL BAD
FOR ALL THESE TWEETS I SENT.
IF HILLARY AND BERNIE WEREN'T
THERE, HE IS NOT A TRAIN WRECK BY ANY MEANS.
HE IS A PROGRESSIVE GUY --
>>HE IS NO JEB BUSH.
>>IF YOU LOOK AT HIS HISTORY IN BALTIMORE, THE COMMUNITY HAS
SOME GRIEVANCES AGAINST HIM, I THINK UNDERSTANDABLY SO, BUT
OVERALL HE IS NOT A TERRIBLE GUY.
BUT THIS COULD BE,
INTERESTINGLY -- REALLY FAST, PUT UP GRAPHIC 6, YOU WILL SEE
THE BREAKDOWN FROM 538, INTERESTINGLY CLINTON AND
SANDERS, THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF OVERLAP THERE IN THE
DISTRIBUTIONS YOU SEE.
AND O'MALLEY, THERE MIGHT BE A BIT
OF THAT TAIL THAT HITS 15%, BUT RIGHT NOW HE IS SOMEWHERE AROUND
6.7, GIVE OR TAKE TWO OR THREE POINTS.
THIS IOWA THING IS GOING
TO HAPPEN IN TERMS OF THE NON-VIABILITY.
AND THOSE SIX
POINTS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR EITHER CANDIDATE TO SWING.
I
DON'T KNOW WHO THEY ARE FAVORING, I CAN'T BELIEVE THAT
NOBODY HAS ACTUALLY ASKED WHO THEIR SECOND CHOICE IS.
THAT
SEEMS LIKE A DERELICTION OF DUTY ON THE PART OF THE POLLSTERS.
BUT I THOUGHT THAT BIDEN'S SUPPORTERS WOULD GO FOR BERNIE
AND I WAS PROVEN WRONG, I MIGHT BE PROVEN WRONG IN THINKING
BERNIE WOULD GET SOMETHING OUT OF THIS.
THAT MIGHT CLINCH IT FOR HILLARY.
>>DO YOU THINK IT IS A VP THING?
OTHERWISE I CAN'T THINK WHAT ON EARTH HE IS DOING, UNLESS
IT IS THE HOME LIFE.
>>I DON'T SEE HOW AN ESTABLISHMENT WHITE GUY HELPS
ANYBODY'S TICKET.
AND HE IS NOT FROM THE SOUTH --
IS BALTIMORE CONSIDERED THE SOUTH?
>>NO, I DON'T THINK SO.
>>BIDEN HAD THAT GOING FOR HIM, A MIDWESTERN-Y SORT OF THING.
>>I TELL YOU WHO IS WRONG, IS PAUL KRUGMAN WHO KEEPS WRITING
THESE COLUMNS ABOUT EVERYBODY WHO SUPPORTS BERNIE IS WRONG
BECAUSE THE GOP WON'T WORK WITH HIM, YOU WON'T GET WHAT YOU
WANT TO.
SO APPARENTLY WHAT THE MAINSTREAM PRESS IS SAYING ABOUT
BERNIE SANDERS IS YOU SHOULD VOTE FOR HILLARY BECAUSE SHE
WILL TRY TO DO LESS, AND THAT SOMEHOW MAKES SENSE TO THEM.
>>IF SHE IS DOING LESS SHE WILL BE MORE SUCCESSFUL.
>>AND EVEN IN HIS COLUMN TODAY, KRUGMAN SAID PEOPLE POINT
TO FDR, BUT HE ONLY GOT HALF THE STUFF DONE HE WANTED.
THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT WE ARE SAYING.
>>THAT IS A BIG HALF.
>>THAT IS THE MAJOR STUFF.
>>YOU SHOOT FOR THE MOON AND YOU COMPROMISE.
YOU DON'T START AT
A COMPROMISED POSITION, WHICH IS THE PROBLEM PEOPLE HAVE HAD
WITH BARACK OBAMA, IS THAT HE CONTINUOUSLY STARTS FROM THE
MIDDLE OF THE OTHER GUY'S POSITION AND THEN HE COMPROMISES
MORE.
YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO START AT BERNIE SANDERS AND
FDR'S POSITION.
AND THEY SAY EVEN SOCIAL SECURITY WHEN FDR
IMPLEMENTED IT DIDN'T COVER EVERYBODY.
YOU KNOW WHY?
BECAUSE
HE STARTED OUT I WANT TO COVER EVERYBODY, AND THEN HE
NEGOTIATED AND COMPROMISED UNTIL IT COVERED WHO IT
COVERED.
SO THIS IDEA THAT YOU SHOULD VOTE FOR CLINTON BECAUSE
PEOPLE WON'T WANT TO VOTE FOR BERNIE SANDERS, AS IF THE GOP IS
EAGER TO WORK WITH HILLARY CLINTON?
THEY HATE HER MORE THAN
BARACK OBAMA.
THEY HAVE HATED HER FOR 25 FUCKING YEARS.
>>THEY GOT A JUMP START ON HATING HER.
>>BUT SOMEHOW IT MAKES MORE SENSE TO VOTE FOR HER BECAUSE
BERNIE WON'T BE ABLE TO GET DONE ALL THE THINGS HE SAYS?
WHO DOES
GET DONE -- BARACK OBAMA COULDN'T GET DONE WHAT HE SAID
HE WANTED TO, WE STILL VOTED FOR HIM.
YOU DON'T VOTE FOR HILLARY
BACK THEN EITHER.
YOU VOTE FOR THE PERSON WHO SAYS THEY WILL DO
WHAT YOU WANT THEM TO DO.
THAT IS THE CRAZIEST LOGIC.
SO
ACCORDING TO PAUL KRUGMAN, WE WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER OFF AS
DEMOCRATS IF WE HAD VOTED FOR AL SMITH IN THE PRIMARY INSTEAD OF
FDR, BECAUSE AL SMITH DIDN'T WANT TO DO AS MUCH SHIT AS FDR.
>>WHY DO YOU HAVE TO BRING UP AL SMITH EVERY SHOW?
JOKING.
>>SO HE IS NOT FORGOTTEN.
>>THERE IS ONE AREA WHERE YOU ARE WRONG.
IF IT IS SANDERS,
THEY WILL CALL HIM A SOCIALIST, WHICH THEY HAVE NEVER DONE WITH
ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT INCLUDING BARACK OBAMA.
WHO THEY CALL A MARXIST FASCIST KENYAN SOCIALIST.
>>THEY CALL HIM A MUSLIM, KENYAN, SOCIALIST.
>>YOU CAN'T BE A BEER-DRINKING, LGBTQ-SUPPORTING MUSLIM.
>>AND CORPORATE PROFITS CAN'T RISE TO A RECORD LEVEL UNDER A MARXIST.
>> AFTER THE STATE OF THE UNION I WENT TO BREITBART.COM TO SEE
THE COMMENTS SECTION UNDER THE STATE OF THE UNION THAT THEY
WERE COVERING, THE FIRST COMMENT WAS, GREAT SPEECH COMRADE.
THE
FIRST THING THEY ARE CALLING HIM AFTER SEVEN YEARS OF NONSTOP
GROWTH, AFTER WALL STREET COMES BACK STRONGER THAN BEFORE, AFTER
ALL THIS STUFF -- WHEN IS THIS SOCIALISM GOING TO KICK IN THAT
WILL KILL OUR ECONOMY?
I THOUGHT OBAMACARE WAS SUPPOSED TO CRASH
OUR ECONOMY, WE WERE SUPPOSED TO LOSE JOBS.
WE HAVE 5% UNEMPLOYMENT.
>>IT WILL HAPPEN THE SAME TIME HE COMES FOR THE GUNS.
JUST LIKE
BABY JESUS, HE IS AT THE LIGHT AND HE WILL BE THERE FOR THE
GUNS, THE JOB WILL GO AWAY, YOU JUST HAVE TO WAIT.
>>AND WE HAVE LIBERAL ECONOMISTS, JOURNALISTS, LIKE
PAUL KRUGMAN TELLING US NOT TO VOTE FOR LIBERALS.
BECAUSE THERE
IS OPPOSITION TO LIBERALISM, WE HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL REPUBLICANS
ARE READY FOR US TO PRESENT OUR LIBERAL IDEAS.
YOU KNOW WHEN
THAT HAPPENS?
FUCKING NEVER.
THAT NEVER HAPPENS.
SO THIS
BULLSHIT IDEA -- IT DRIVES ME NUTS.
THAT IS THE WORST LOGIC.
IT IS ILLOGICAL.
BECAUSE THEY WON'T WORK WITH --
YOU THINK THEY WILL WORK WITH HILLARY CLINTON?
>>IF BARACK OBAMA CAN CONVINCE HIMSELF YEAR AFTER YEAR
THAT THIS IS THE YEAR HE WORKS WITH THEM --
>> IT WILL FINALLY WORK.
DO YOU THINK THERE IS SOMETHING TO BE
SAID FOR SAYING BERNIE IS A LITTLE MORE EXTREME AND HILLARY
IS A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHMENT WASHINGTON, AND SHE MIGHT BE
ABLE TO GET MAYBE SOME IDEAS THAT AREN'T AS EXTREME AS
BERNIE'S A LITTLE FURTHER BECAUSE OF HER TIES IN
WASHINGTON THAN BERNIE, WHO IS PRETTY EXTREME?
I THOUGHT OF THAT, SHE MIGHT BE MORE EFFECTIVE IN
WASHINGTON BECAUSE OF HER HISTORY THERE.
DO YOU THINK THERE IS AN ARGUMENT FOR THAT?
>>MY RESPONSE TO THAT IS, BERNIE BRAGS ABOUT ALL THE LEGISLATION
HE HAS GOTTEN DONE WITH REPUBLICANS.
WHEREAS HILLARY
GOES IN A DEBATE AND SAYS HER NUMBER ONE ENEMY IS THE GOP.
HE
BRAGS ABOUT WORKING WITH THEM, AND I HEARD THIS YESTERDAY, I
THINK HE WAS THE NUMBER ONE IN AMENDMENTS AS FAR AS A
DEMOCRATIC SENATOR, GETTING AMENDMENTS APPROVED IN THE LAST
EIGHT YEARS FOR BILLS WITH THE GOP.
I COULD BE WRONG.
I'VE
HEARD THAT.
HILLARY, BECAUSE SHE IS MORE OF AN INSIDER --
HE HAS BEEN IN CONGRESS SINCE THE 80S?
>>SINCE EISENHOWER.
SINCE THE DAWN OF TIME.
>>AND EVERYBODY GETS ALONG WITH HIM.
WHAT THEY SAY IS, I CAN'T BE SEEN WORKING WITH YOU.
THAT IS WHAT THE GOP SAYS ABOUT DEMOCRATS.
I WOULD LIKE TO WORK WITH YOU BUT I CAN'T BE SEEN WORKING
WITH YOU.
>>YOU DON'T THINK HILLARY WOULD HAVE A BETTER SHOT?
>>THEY HATE HER.
THEY IMPEACHED HER HUSBAND WHEN THEY KNEW IT
WAS BAD FOR THEM, THEY DID IT ANYWAY.
YOU THINK THEY WILL BE NICER TO HER THAN BERNIE?
>>I THINK IT COULD BE THE CASE, BUT IT IS NOT CERTAINLY THE
CASE, AND THAT IS WHAT A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE MEDIA ARE SAYING.