>>> WHILE CAMPAIGNING THIS WEEK
IN PHILADELPHIA FOR JOE BIDEN,
FORMER PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA
WARNED BIDEN SUPPORTERS NOT TO
BECOME COMPLACENT WITH PUBLIC
POLLS THAT SHOW THE FORMER VICE
PRESIDENT LEADING PRESIDENT
TRUMP.
DEMOCRATS CARRY WITH THEM THE
SCARS OF 2016, WHEN MANY OF THEM
THOUGHT RIGHT UP THROUGH
ELECTION NIGHT HILLARY CLINTON
WAS A SURE THING AGAINST THE
CELEBRITY BUSINESSMAN AND
REALITY TV HOST.
SO HOW MUCH FAITH SHOULD VOTERS
PUT IN THE POLLS AND OTHER KEY
INDICATORS THIS TIME AROUND?
NBC'S GEOFF BENNETT HAS OUR
"SUNDAY FOCUS."
>> THIS TIME FOUR YEARS AGO,
HILLARY CLINTON HELD A
FIVE-POINT NATIONAL LEAD OVER
DONALD TRUMP.
WE KNOW HOW THAT TURNED OUT.
DOOMSDAY FOR DEMOCRATS.
THIS TIME AROUND, IT'S JOE BIDEN
WHO IS AHEAD IN THE POLLS.
A CREEPING SENSE OF DEJA VU FOR
THIS TIME, THERE'S A DIFFERENCE.
FOR STARTERS, BIDEN'S LEAD IS
BIGGER THAN CLINTON'S WAS,
EDGING OUT PRESIDENT TRUMP
NATIONALLY AND IN NEARLY EVERY
BATTLEGROUND STATE.
>> I NEVER TAKE ANYTHING FOR
GRANTED, SO THE POLLS SHOW THIS
A CLOSE RACE, BUT WITH HAVING A
STEADY LEAD.
>> ADD TO THAT MR. TRUMP IS AN
INCUMBENT, NO LONGER AN
OUTSIDER, NOW FACING THE WORST
POLLING POSITION FOR A PRESIDENT
SEEKING RE-ELECTION SINCE GEORGE
H.W. BUSHEN 1992.
>> WELL, I WATCH POLLS, BUT THE
POLLS ARE FAKE JUST LIKE THE
REPORTING.
I THINK WE'RE WINNING.
I THINK WE'RE WINNING BIG.
>> POLLING EXPERT DAVE
WASSERMANN SAYS POLLS AREN'T
MEANT TO PROVIDE PERFECT
PREDICTIONS.
>> POLLS ARE LIKE A GPS THAT CAN
GET YOU INTO THE RIGHT
NEIGHBORHOOD BUT NOT NECESSARILY
TO THE EXACT ADDRESS.
POLLS DID A GOOD JOB OF TELLING
US THAT DEMOCRATS WERE GOING TO
WIN THE HOUSE BACK IN 2018.
AND THEY ALSO DID A REASONABLE
JOB OF ILLUMINATING THE
WEAKNESSES FOR HILLARY CLINTON
IN 2016.
>> BEYOND POLLING DATA, THERE
ARE OTHER SIGNS THAT CAN BE READ
AS INDICATIONS OF WHO WILL WIN.
DEMOCRATS ARE POINTING TO
ENTHUSIASM IN THE FINAL STRETCH
OF THE RACE.
WITH BIDEN CRUSHING THE
COMPETITION IN FUND-RAISING.
BIDEN'S CAMPAIGN AND AFFILIATED
COMMITTEES RAISING A RECORD $383
MILLION IN SEPTEMBER.
COMPARED TO NEARLY $248 MILLION
FOR TEAM TRUMP.
ON THE FLIPSIDE, REPUBLICANS ARE
POINTING TO WHAT THEY SEE AS A
SIGN OF POTENTIAL PROMISE -- THE
GOP NARROWING THE GAP WITH
DEMOCRATS IN VOTER REGISTRATIONS
IN THREE CRITICAL STATES,
PENNSYLVANIA, NORTH CAROLINA,
AND FLORIDA.
>> GREAT TO BE BACK IN MY HOME
STATE, FLORIDA.
>> REPUBLICANS HOPING THAT HEAVY
TURNOUT ON ELECTION DAY WILL
HELP PROPEL THE PRESIDENT TO A
SECOND TERM NO MATTER WHAT THE
POLLS SHOW.
BEYOND THE NUMBERS, THE BEST
INDICATION OF WHO'S WINNING IN
POLITICS IS OFTEN WHO IS
STANDING BY THEIR CANDIDATE.
AND RECENTLY, SOME REPUBLICAN
SENATORS STARTED TO DISTANCE
THEMSELVES FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP.
LIKE SENATOR BEN SASSE OF
NEBRASKA, HEARD ON A CONFERENCE
CALL WITH CONSTITUENTS.
>> THE UNITED STATES NOW
REGULARLY SELLS OUT OUR ALLIES
UN
HIS LEADERSHIP.
HE MOCKS EVANGELICALS BEHIND
CLOSE DOORS.
HIS FAMILY HAS TREATED THE
PRESIDENCY LIKE A BUSINESS
OPPORTUNITY.
HE'S FLIRTED WITH WHITE
SUPREMACISTS.
>> THE PRESIDENT HITTING BACK.
>> NOW WE HAVE THIS GUY SASSE
WHO WANTS TO MAKE A STAM.
LITTLE BEN.
LITTLE BEN SASSE.
THE REPUBLICANS HAVE TO STICK
TOGETHER BETTER.
>> BUT FOR NOW, BOTH CANDIDATES,
THEIR PARTIES, AND THEIR
SUPPORTERS ARE LEFT READING THE
TEA LEAVES.
AND GEOFF JOINS ME NOW LIVE.
GEOFF, GOOD MORNING.
GOOD TO SEE YOU.
AS YOU KNOW, THE PARANOIA AMONG
DEMOCRATS ABOUT POLLS IS
PALPABLE RIGHT NOW.
WHAT DID POLLSTERS LEARN FROM
THE EXPERIENCE OF 2016?
AS YOU POINT OUT IN THE PIECE,
THE NATIONAL POLLS IN 2016 WERE
ABOUT RIGHT.
>> YOU'RE RIGHT ABOUT THAT.
IN 2016, MANY POLLSTERS
ESPECIALLY AT THE STATE LEVEL
DIDN'T ADJUST THEIR SAMPLES TO
ACCOUNT FOR A VOTER'S EDUCATION
LEVEL.
THAT WAS ESPECIALLY THE CASE,
WILLIE, IN STATES LIKE MICHIGAN
AND WISCONSIN, WHICH CLINTON
LOST.
AS WE LATER LEARNED, DONALD
TRUMP WON AN OVERWHELMING NUMBER
OF WHITE VOTERS WITHOUT A
COLLEGE AEDUCATION OR AS WHITE
VOTERS WITH FOUR-YEAR DEGREES
BROKE FOR HILLARY CLINTON.
BUT AGAIN, POLLS SHOULD NOT BE
MISTAKEN FOR CRYSTAL BALLS.
THEY'RE SNAPSHOTS IN TIME.
THAT DOESN'T MEAN THEIR SERVE NO
PURPOSE.
WITH ENOUGH SNAPSHOTS, YOU CAN
GET A CLEARER PICTURE OF HOW THE
RACE IS SHAPING UP WITH NINE
DAYS TO GO.
>> NINE DAYS LEFT BEF