It is clear: Vladimir Putin is one of the most controversial politicians in the world.
He is idolized by some, and hated by others, but what is for sure is that Putin’s period
in office is leaving it’s mark on international politics.
The truth is the government has achieved little success in terms of economic and social matters
under his leadership.
However, his popularity among Russians remains really high.
Today, in this video, we’re going to analyse why Putin is so popular in Russia.
There is this Spanish saying that says: After the storm, comes the calm.
Well, when it comes to Russia, this is exactly
what has happened.
After going through a tough crisis in the
last few years due to the fall in the oil prices and raw materials, as well as the sanctions
received from the International Community for occupying Crimea; the government has been
pretty blunt: the difficult times have passed, and the Russian economy is back.
But… is it really?
I mean what is the evidence to show this…
So, what do you think growth for Russian in 2017 is expected to be?
12%? 9?
5?
3?
2???...Nope!
It´ll be 1%.
“Month after month, the Russian economy keeps growing.
For 2017 we are expecting a growth of 1%... or even more” Igor Shuválov
Sure doesn’t look like a lot…
And that is bearing in mind that Russia is
not exactly a rich country to begin with.
And to be honest that one percent is only if we believe the statistics of the Russian
government… which…
well…
more and more analysts are considering to be rather fictitious.
The truth is that, even though everything
seems to indicate that the Russian economy is more stable, the last few years have not
exactly been easy for the Russians…
According to the Russian Social Security Institute,
in the year 2016 alone, Russian citizens suffered from the biggest loss in purchasing power,
meaning real income, since the 1990s…Not good.
The crisis and the depreciation of the rouble, the Russian currency, has caused this country
with 145 million inhabitants to have a similar GDP to the one in Australia, whose population
is only 23 million.
And what’s even worse is that for now, it
doesn't look like the situation is going to improve.
So, here we come to the great Russian anomaly.
Evidence which shows this country is different to any other…
Neither the crisis nor the terrible economic conditions have damaged the national popularity
of Vladimir Putin.
In fact, Putin’s popularity is today almost higher than it has ever been.
According to the polls of the Levada Center, Putin's approval among the Russian population
is almost 80%.
And have a look at this: But you might be wondering: How is this even
possible?
Why is this man immune to such a crisis?
Well, let’s have a look at what is happening…
THE PROTECTIVE FATHER
When discussing the Russian economy, it is pretty mandatory to talk about oil and raw
materials.
And here are two pieces of information so you can get an idea of how dependent Russia
is on these two resources: Before the fall in the prices of crude oil,
oil and natural gas meant a lot: 70% of the country´s exports and more than 50% of all
the income of the Russian government.
And take a look at the evolution of the price of oil during the years Putin has been in
office…
So, anyway, Putin was incredibly lucky!
Right after he reached power, the price of oil, which had remained stable around 20$
a barrel for the last 10 years, started to increase quickly.
And, of course, this meant an amazing flow of money coming into the country.
Just so you can get an idea of how significant this was, the share the government contributed
to the economy rose from 35% to 70%!
All of a sudden, prosperity came to the entire nation: there were cranes everywhere, skyscrapers
started to appear as if they were mushrooms after the rain, and the standard of living
for the Russians went up and up.
Yes, it is true, Putin’s authoritarianism could be felt from the very beginning...but,
so what?
Who cares!
The money was flowing!
We could say there was a sort of agreement between Russian society and their leader:
in exchange for not asking about civil liberties or corruption, the government gave prosperity
and stability to the citizens.
In a way Putin became some kind of protective father to the nation.
A tough but capable father, able to take care of his children.
But, as always, the problem is that these situations are fragile: no government, not
even Putin’s, has the capacity of achieving prosperity all on its own.
With such high oil prices, Putin didn’t conduct any reforms in Russia.
I mean what would be the point?
And because of that, when the price of oil started to go down in the summer of 2014,
the economy in Russia followed the same pattern.
And it is here that we come to the most interesting part....
None of these things affected Putin’s popularity.
The Russian president knew, for want of a better word, how to “recycle” his earlier
strategy.
If at the beginning he was the guardian of prosperity, now he would become the leader
who would recover the previous great influence that mother Russia used to have!
NACIONALIST FERVOR
So, if the Russia’s economy wasn’t having its best moment, he had to look for another
source of popularity.
And Putin knew where to find it…
For 500 years Russia’s foreign policy was all about expanding it’s influence.
Since the times of Ivan the Terrible, around the 14th Century, Russia expanded its territory
an average of 80 sq km a day until it became, by far, the largest country on Earth, as well
as the most powerful.
However, after the fall of the Soviet Union,
the influence Russia had on the rest of the world collapsed.
So, Putin made a new promise, and it could be summarized like this:
It may not be a prosperous country and the economic situation may be bad, but I, Vladimir
Putin, will recover Russia’s influence in the world.
You may not be a wealthy people, but your nation will be strong.
But, in order to make the strategy work, some things are necessary:
The first of them is to praise nationalist sentiment, and this means: Russia, Russia,
and more Russia.
“Vladimir Putin unveils statue of medieval namesake who 'united Russian lands' The Telegraph”
By the way, following these same ideals are the recurring adverts (propaganda) of new
invincible weapons, incredible powerfully ones which will guarantee Russia gains great
status and global supremacy.
First of all, an important question is going to be whether the Russian government can actually
afford these weapons.
The second necessary thing is rather more sinister, and that’s for Russia to find
an enemy.
An enemy that can push Russians towards a common goal....
Let me explain: they need a threat, an aggressor,
a target for the Russians to unite against.
And, to achieve that, Putin requires an aggressive foreign policy...
The Ukrainian crisis, the accusations against NATO, and the occupation of Crimea, are all
examples that have made Putin’s popularity rise again.
In the eyes of the Russians, Putin is taking Russia back to its previous grandeur.
This second strategy can explain the busy schedule of Russian diplomacy in the last
few years.
They may not have much money, but Moscow is everywhere, Ukraine: Syria, North Africa…
And hey, to be honest, the sanctions the international community have imposed on Russia have had
the opposite effect that was intended: they have been seen by the Russians as a humiliating
and, if they have had any effect, it was to consolidate popular support for Vladimir Putin.
“74% of the Russians consider the sanctions to be an intention to weaken and humiliate
Russia, only 5% think of them as an instrument to stop the conflict in Ukraine” Levada
Center
And last of all for Putin, it is necessary for him to consolidate the image of a strong,
determined leader.
Almost a national hero, a savior if you will...
“There is no Russia today if there is no Putin".
Vyacheslav Volodin, Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
So, these are the keys in understanding why Vladimir Putin has been able to keep and even
increase his popularity.
He is no longer the guardian of prosperity, but the leader who will regain the power that
Russia once had.
CRONY CAPITALISM
Another decisive matter to be considered is that Putin’s government also survives because
he has been able to create a network of powerful oligarchs around him who have grown rich thanks
to the resources of the Russian state.
Government aid, large state contracts, and Putin’s commitment to replace imports, have
all benefited these oligarchs.
“Putin’s Former Judo Partner Awarded Contract To Build Russian Bridge To Crimea.
It'll cost more tan $3 billion”.
Huffingtonpost
Besides, Putin has a back up plan in case things go awry.
He can “privatize”, or more accurately, give state companies away to these oligarchs
who will use their power and money to further Putin’s interests.
The Russian president has made it clear: only
strategic investors will be allowed to participate in privatizations, that is investors who are
selected and invited by the Russian government.
IRON FIST
And we can’t forget the repression.
Political repression and repression of minorities seem to be the fetishes of all dictators and
potential dictators.
Just take a look at the last report of Amnesty International on human rights in Russia.
It’s sad “Restrictions on rights to freedom of expression,
association and peaceful assembly increased in 2016.”
Amnesty International.
Well, now we know the ingredients that explains Putin’s popularity: nationalism, oligarchs,
censorship, and political repression.
Putin has promised the people to become powerful
again in exchange for their unconditional loyalty.
However, despite the posturing, it seems unlikely
for Russia to seriously be able to compete with the US or China both in the medium and
the long run.
But now, what do you think?
Will Putin succeed in giving Russia its old power back?
And what would you prefer: national power, or wellbeing, prosperity and freedom?
We definitely know what we’d want, but now we want to know about you, drop us a comment
below this video with your thoughts.
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Also, don’t forget to check out our friends at the Reconsider Media Podcast, who provided
the voice in this video that isn’t mine, and I’ll see you in the next episode!