In recent months there's been renewed talk that
Kosovo could look to unite with neighbouring Albania.
Indeed, two former prime ministers of Kosovo have openly raised the idea.
But while the logic for such a move is perhaps understandable,
the idea nevertheless faces significant obstacles.
So, what lies behind it? And could it really happen?
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Hello and welcome. If you're new, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take an
informed look at international relations, conflict and the origins of countries.
Kosovo's declaration of independence, in February 2008, split international opinion.
While the United States and most of the European Union recognised its independence , many other
countries - including Russia and China - stand steadfastly against its statehood.
As a result, 13 years after breaking away from Serbia it remains locked outside the
United Nations and its hopes of eventually joining the European Union are on hold.
It's against this backdrop that there's once again been growing talk by several senior Kosovo
political figures that one option for the country would be to unite with neighbouring Albania.
In an interview the start of February, Albin Kurti, the leader of Vetëvendosje, which
recently won elections in Kosovo, stated that he supported the idea and would vote for unification.
Meanwhile, Ramush Haradinaj, a former prime minister, and contender for the presidency,
made it clear that if Kosovo's hopes of European integration remain
blocked then there might be no choice but to hold a referendum on unification.
However, it's a suggestion that nevertheless carries all sorts of legal
and political implications.
So, could Kosovo and Albania really unite?
Kosovo and Albania lie in south east Europe.
At 29,000 square kilometres, or 11,000 square miles, Albania is the 140th largest
of the 193 members of the United Nations - roughly the same size as Belgium or Armenia.
Meanwhile, at 11,000 square kilometres, or
4,200 square miles, neighbouring Kosovo is roughly a third the size of Albania.
At present, the population of Albania and Kosovo is 2.9 million and 1.8 million
respectively; although both have an extensive diaspora population abroad.
While there's no precise figures on the country's ethnic composition,
the vast majority of Albania's population is ethnic Albanian.
The largest ethnic minority are Greeks who make up just one or two percent of the population.
In Kosovo, the most recent census showed that 93 are ethnic Albanian.
The remaining seven percent is made up predominantly of Serbs,
alongside smaller communities Montenegrins, Bosniaks, Roma and other groups.
The story really starts in 1913.
Under the terms of the Treaties of London and Bucharest, the borders of
a new Albanian state were demarcated alongside those of several other neighbouring countries.
But instead of bringing together all the region's Albanians under a single national roof,
almost half found themselves living outside the new Principality of Albania.
The largest concentration was in the Kingdom of Serbia, which at the time
including most of what is today Kosovo and North Macedonia.
The rest were in Montenegro and Greece.
As a result, Albanians in Albania and elsewhere now began to follow very different paths.
In 1918, Serbia and Montenegro became part of what would become Yugoslavia.
And, following the Second World War, both Albania and Yugoslavia came under communist rule.
But while relations between them were at first good, they soon fell out and
became increasingly estranged - especially after Albania came under an extreme isolationist regime.
This changed in 1991 when the communist regime in
Albania collapsed and socialist Yugoslavia began to disintegrate.
While this allowed for greater contacts between Albania and the
Albanian communities across the region, political union remained out of reach.
In late 1991, Macedonia - now known as North Macedonia - became independent.
As a result, half a million Albanians - the second largest community of
Albanians outside of Albania - now found themselves in a new country.
The same went for the small Albanian community in Montenegro following its independence, in 2006.
But the most significant development was the attempt by Kosovo - the home of the
largest ethnic Albanian community outside of Albania - to break away from Serbia
and become an independent state alongside the other former Yugoslav republics.
Following an escalation of fighting, in March 1999 NATO intervened and the province was
placed under United Nations administration pending a decision on its final status.
Following failed UN talks, in February 2008
Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in a move that was supported by the United
States and most of the European Union, but opposed by Serbia, Russia and China.
Since then, over half the members of the United Nations have recognised it
as an independent state.
I've only covered the background to Kosovo very briefly here.
I've actually made several other videos on the subject.
I've put links above and in the description below.
So, given that Kosovo has now been recognised as independent
by a significant proportion of the international community,
including most Western states, what lies behind the current decisions over unification?
There are in fact several reasons.
First of all, it's about national identity.
Many see unification of all Albanian territories - the creation of what is
called 'Natural Albania' or 'Greater Albania' - as the national aspiration of the Albanian people.
However, others are more careful to steer away from
an overtly expansionist and nationalist message
that suggests a claim to all Albanian areas in North Macedonia and even Southern Montenegro.
Instead, the focus is on closer unity between Albania and Kosovo;
as overwhelmingly Albanian countries with a free will to unite.
A key proponent of this view is the current Albanian prime minister, Edi Rama.
In recent years, Kosovo and Albania have steadily moved closer together politically
and there have been joint cabinet sessions.
Rama has even appointed a number of Kosovo Albanians to senior government positions in
Albania and has more recently floated the idea for open borders and even a joint precedent.
All this has led to claims of unification by stealth.
However, for others, and as noted at the start,
the idea of unification is driven by practical realities.
In recent years, the pace of recognitions for Kosovo has slowed dramatically.
Indeed, since 2018, just one country has recognised Kosovo - Israel in late 2020.
At the same time, and following a diplomatic campaign by Serbia,
a number of countries have withdrawn their recognitions.
Perhaps more importantly, Kosovo's path to full international acceptance through membership of the
United Nations is blocked by Russia and China with little sign that either will change their mind.
This means that Kosovo is locked out from various other parts of the international system.
By unifying with Albania it would indirectly become a full part of the international community.
Finally, and linked to this, talk of unification seems to be a way
to try to apply pressure on countries to unlock Kosovo's path to EU integration.
This is stalled due to opposition from five EU members that still don't recognise Kosovo
and a more general concern about Western Balkan enlargement in certain quarters.
It's telling that some of the more prominent suggestions,
such as the statements made by former president, Hashim Thaci,
and former prime minister, Ramush Haradinaj, have directly linked the idea of unification
with Albania to the failure of the European Union to give Kosovo a clear European perspective.
But could unification actually happen?
The first question that needs to be asked is whether the idea
actually enjoys any real popular support?
On the face of it, yes it does seem to be popular.
But dig a little deeper and the picture is a little more mixed.
For example, a widely cited poll conducted in 2010 showed overwhelming support for the idea
of Greater Albania - including Albania, Kosovo and the Albanian-inhabited parts of North Macedonia.
However, support for a union of just Kosovo and Albania
fell to just 34 percent of people in Albania and 29 percent in Kosovo.
Since then, things seem to have changed a little.
A more recent poll, conducted in 2019,
showed that support for unification ran at 75 percent in Albania and 64 percent in Kosovo.
However, yet again, this just tells part of the story.
Support for unification fell to 29 percent in Albania and 44 percent in Kosovo when
people were asked if they would be willing to pay a tax to support it.
This also hints at bigger points.
While many might support the idea in principle,
a lot would seemingly depend on the practicalities of unification.
Many Kosovo Albanians fear that unification would see them take a secondary position
as the national heartland would be Albania.
And what sort of union would it be?
Would the united country be a unitary state controlled from the albanian capital, Tirana,
or would it be a federation?
Or could it even be a looser arrangement, such as confederation.
This would need to be spelled out.
But even if the political and popular support is there,
it seems all but impossible to see how it could actually happen.
For a start, the very first article of Kosovo's constitution explicitly
outlaws union with another state.
Of course, some would argue that a constitutional amendment is always possible.
But this seems difficult to envisage.
Not only would it require a two-thirds vote of the 120-member parliament of kosovo,
it would also require two-thirds support of the 20 members from the
country's national minorities - of which 10 are ethnic serbs.
It seems completely implausible to believe that any of them, let alone six of them, would vote for
unification with Albania; assuming that all the other minority deputies accepted the idea as well.
From this perspective alone, the question of whether Albania and Kosovo could unite
is a clear and emphatic 'no'.
Of course, the story doesn't quite end there.
Just suppose, for the sake of argument,
that the votes could be found in the national assembly in Kosovo, what would happen then?
In short, every international effort will be made to prevent it from happening.
For those countries that don't recognize Kosovo's independence, the move would
amount to a violation of Serbia's territorial integrity and would be viewed as unlawful.
However, the problem really comes for those countries that have recognised Kosovo.
Under usual circumstances, and assuming again that it's done constitutionally,
there'd be a strong case to allow the democratic will to prevail.
If union is what Kosovo and Albania want, and it can be done legally,
as sovereign states they should be allowed to do so.
However, the wider context is vital in this case.
The real fear is that such a move would set off a chain reaction across the Western Balkans.
If Kosovo and Albania united, then there would almost certainly
be pressure for unification from many Albanians in North Macedonia.
In addition, if Albanians were seen to have the right to unite,
then that could lead to all sorts of calls from the region's Serbs to be permitted the same.
This would pose a challenge to Bosnia and to Montenegro.
The countries that supported Kosovo's independence did so on the explicit basis
that this would be the end of the matter and that there would be no further redrawing of borders.
If they were to try to unify the level of pressure brought to bear on Pristina
and Tirana by the United States and the European Union would be absolutely enormous.
Recent suggestions by senior Kosovo political figures
that there could be some sort of vote on unification between Kosovo and Albania
has certainly attracted a lot of international attention.
However, in truth, it seems all but impossible to
see it happening - at least in the foreseeable future.
While many might like the idea in an abstract sense,
any attempt to put it into action would be doomed to failure.
Quite apart from the constitutional blockages that would exist,
it would face fierce opposition from the wider international community;
not only those states that don't recognise Kosovo's independence but also from those that do.
For all these reasons, such talk really seems to be designed as a strategy to encourage
greater international engagement to break the deadlock over Kosovo's international standing
as an independent state, rather than a genuine attempt to give that independence up.
The trouble is that the longer that Kosovo remains in limbo, the louder the calls will grow,
and the more tempted politicians may feel to act on it - despite the consequences.
I hope you found that useful.
If so, here are some more videos that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.