- So I'm here at the San Diego Supercharger.
There's only one in town.
I thought this was outside of town.
I thought it was just out kind of nowhere
and so it was hard to get to.
It's certainly far from my house.
But as I got here I realized I'm in the middle of Qualcomm,
one of the biggest tech companies in the world,
certainly the biggest in San Diego.
This is right in the middle of a campus where,
I don't know, there's probably 20 or so buildings.
I could totally understand how people will come to work,
they'll pop their car over here, charge for 30 minutes,
fill up and then move their car and go back home.
Which is I think what they were trying to avoid.
This was an interesting thing.
Superchargers were intended for travel
but if it's at your work you're going to use it.
It's kind of ridiculous to think people wouldn't do that.
The big question still,
and this is what I want to dig into deeper I have some data,
is what is going to happen when we have all these
new Model 3 reservations coming to fruition
and we have hundreds of thousands of new Tesla owners
that are looking to use them?
You know, the ones out kind of on the road that
are out in those tiny little towns in the middle of nowhere,
I'm sure those will be fine.
But ones like this,
and if I were traveling and needed to stop here
I could see how this could be completely overrun.
I have some data and it's from a guy
on the Tesla Motors Club which is a great forum
if you're interested in this kind of stuff,
whether or not you're a Tesla owner.
The stats that we're going to look at are
the number of Teslas per charger.
That doesn't mean charging location, that means per charger.
The one I'm at here has 12
and some of them have more than that,
but some of them also have less.
Looking at this number,
we're trying to see how bad this is gonna get.
Tesla has said that they're going
to try to double the Supercharger networks
and quadruple the destination chargers,
which are the ones at locations,
like at a mall or a hotel or something like that typically.
Now those are all going to help but for travelers,
for people driving around in California
this is probably gonna hit you the most.
And this also goes for those of you that don't have
a Model S, X yet or are going to be a Model 3 owner soon.
This is something to think about.
This is something that when you plan your trips
you may have to not only stop and charge
for 30 or 40 minutes but you may have to wait in line.
This happened to me in San Juan Capistrano recently.
Up there there's only six or so stalls so it makes sense
and again it's kind of right
in the middle of Orange County,
but the deal there is they have great Mexican food
so I don't mind waiting a little bit of extra time
and getting that.
Let's dive into the data now and see what
is gonna happen here or what we can glean from that data
to understand what the situation will be like in the future.
The data here is coming from Tesla Motors Club
and as I mentioned there's a user here Troy,
who has been updating this for a little while.
He just recently released the Q1 2017 numbers.
At the top here on this chart he has,
you can see that we're at a
39.3 Teslas per Supercharger stall worldwide.
I am not interested in worldwide
because it doesn't pertain to me, right?
If there were a bazillion Supercharger stalls in Italy
but all the Teslas are over here in California,
what does it matter?
He also breaks it down by country
and specifically he has California listed here.
And holy crap!
This is where in California it is the worst,
and it's probably because we have
the most of the Tesla fleet,
but it's over a hundred.
Almost 105 Teslas per Supercharger stall.
That means lines are already busy.
People are already waiting.
I wanted to take a look at this and see the trend
and what that might look like.
I took this data from him here and I created this world map.
At the high level looking at just the country information
it isn't really that telling except the fact that
Netherlands actually pops out.
So when I click on one of these countries
you can see what I did is I have the actual trend
at the bottom and for the Netherlands here
this is actually really good news.
It dropped from 94.5 down to 62.8.
That's a big drop.
So good for them, this is actually improving.
Yet they still on a country level
are the worst overall in the world.
Now you can see the current stats for them as well,
so they have 62.8 as a ratio.
They have 86 stalls and 5,400 Teslas
so that is kind of how this works.
I also can click of course on the United States.
You can see we're a little bit up but
this doesn't show California separately.
California is just bad all around,
I don't know how else to put it.
I live in California so this effects me,
I'm not ragging on anyone else.
One feature I wanted to build in here was
just a way to look at how this changes over time.
If I go back on this little slider on the top right,
I can actually play this back over time
to see how it's changed.
Back in Q2 of 2014,
the data wasn't totally complete.
It was still pretty early on in this project.
But you can see that in the UK
we had 96 was the ratio and Norway was 106, so really bad.
If I hit play on this
you'll see it change and adjust over time.
I just thought this was an interesting way
to look at this data.
I want to dig more into this.
I want more information to help understand
what it might be like once the Model 3s
start being delivered.
If you have information on this
or if you know where to get it,
please let me know.
I want to do more detailed analysis
and really try to figure out what will it look like
when we have a couple hundred-thousand more people
with Teslas on the road at the Superchargers.
I tend to travel for work and I drive my Tesla.
When I do so I often stop at very populated
places in southern California.
I'm hoping it doesn't get worse.
But before I go it is worth mentioning
that the Model 3 and even new Model S and X owners
are going to have to pay after
they use up those 400 kilowatt hours.
If you live or work near one,
I could see people doing this rather quickly.
That was my point earlier was that,
I always felt and maybe I was naive in this
and it's just from my own experience,
is that a lot of the Superchargers are way out in
the middle of nowhere.
But in southern California
there really isn't a middle of nowhere.
It's so populated and so densely congested here that
a lot of these chargers are where people live and work
so it makes a lot of sense.
I don't know if I would call it abuse.
It's certainly not what it was intended for but anyways,
let me know what you think.
Is it right or wrong for people to do this
if they live or work literally at or next to
one of the Supercharger locations?
How bad do you think it's gonna get?
And is California an exception because we have
something like 47 percent of all Teslas in the world?
Well I'd love to hear from you
and if you are in the market for a new Tesla,
you can use our referral code, get 1,000 bucks off.
That would help the channel a little bit.
Might even get invited to some cool events
which then we can share with you here on the channel.
Also, for those of you that really want to get involved,
we have a Patreon page set up at patreon.com/teslanomics.
The reason I did that is because I feel it's a great way
for us to have a much more direct connection.
Here on youtube we have hundreds of thousands of people
watching our videos every month and I am grateful for that
but it also adds a lot of noise.
For those of you that are just passionate about this stuff.
You love the data and the company as much as I do,
please consider pledging whatever amount works for you
over on Patreon and I will hear from you
and chat with you there.
So thanks again and I'll see you back here next time.