Germany is one of the guarantors of European security, and yet the
entire world questions if Germany's military is up to the task. Is Germany
ready to fight a major conflict in Europe, and how would it perform?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a wake up call for a complacent, pacifist Europe. After
the end of the Cold War, Europe had reason to relax, but while everyone was taking siestas
and sipping espressos at their favorite bistro, Russia was plotting. When Russia first invaded
Ukraine in 2014, Europe hardly blinked, because not only had it become complacent,
but it had become extremely dependent on the energy supplied by the only challenge to their
own national security. Nobody was more guilty of this than Germany, who foolishly believed it could
sway Moscow via trade dependence. Instead, Germany handed Putin the very reins over its economy.
The second invasion of Ukraine at last woke Europe up to the fact that it still had a belligerent,
much bigger neighbor on its border. By then though the state of many European militaries was utterly
abysmal, and few major European powers were in worse shape than Germany. During
the Cold War the readiness rate of the West German military hovered around 90%.
Today that figure is anywhere between 20 to 40%- meaning that only 20 to 40% of its personnel and
equipment is ready for immediate action. For years Germany couldn't even meet its
NATO commitments to the rapid response force established during the Obama presidency to
counter sudden Russian aggression unless it first cannibalized other units for supplies and gear.
In 2018 Jorge Benitez, of the Atlantic Council think tank stated,
“The readiness of the German military is abysmal. For years, German leaders have
known that major elements of their armed forces, such as tanks, submarines, and fighter jets,
are not fully operational and can't be used for actual military missions.” Despite Germany's
strong economy, its military was found to be one of the weakest on the continent. Famously,
president Donald Trump considered Germany a free-loader, coasting on the might of the
US and the rest of NATO as guarantors of its own security. At the time, not a single one of
Germany's submarines could take to sea, only four of its 128 Eurofighter were prepared for combat,
and the army's vehicles were unprepared to meet NATO combat requirements. Its troops had
no body armor, no night vision equipment, and even lacked cold-weather clothing.
How in the world could one of Europe's economic powerhouses have a military incapable of defending
even its own borders? The answer is a strong pacifist streak amongst German policy makers,
but also a willingness to sacrifice on security in order to stimulate its national economy. And
when you've got one of the largest concentrations of American troops outside of the US' borders in
your territory, you probably feel pretty secure. Hiding under America's skirts,
Germany instead preferred to spend its money on everything but defense,
crippling its ability to fight even a light intensity conflict.
But German society is also deeply uncomfortable with military spending, and given its history in
the first half of the 20th century it's easy to see why. In a 2018 poll, 51 percent of
those surveyed stated that they did not want their military budget to increase, despite a
pledge to NATO in 2014 to finally hit 2% of GDP spending on its own defense. 13 percent wanted
even further cuts. Time and again, Germany tried to push through some legislature to
increase military spending but inevitably it was either slashed or failed to pass into law,
with the funds instead being diverted to social welfare programs. Despite this, in 2019 Germany
led NATO's Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, designed to quickly deploy to hot spots in eastern
Europe. German defense documents, leaked to the public by the Die Welt newspaper, showed that the
German contingent of this task force only had 9 of the 44 Leopard 2 tanks it needed operational
and only 3 of the 14 Marder armored personnel carriers. The German Air Force's readiness
was even worse, needing partner support to get even a fraction of its air power into the skies.
The security situation however is critical thanks to a resurgent Russia,
and German Chancellor Olfa Scholz declared an end to the decline of the German military
by pledging a $104 billion increase in defense spending and to meet NATO's requirement of 2%
of GDP. Yet already there are doubts that more than half of this money will actually end up
being procured and spent on the military, and Germany's bold rearmament plans may be nothing
but hot air. Europe's largest economy could once more end up coasting on the strength of
its NATO partners, outsourcing its own defense while spending money elsewhere.
For a long time Germany's European partners were deeply uncomfortable with a militarily
resurgent Germany, for very obvious reasons. However in recent years,
opinion polls show that the rest of Europe is a lot more comfortable with the idea of
a strong German military than in previous decades. In fact, much of the world sees
it as necessary for the stability of western democracies, especially as Russia and China
rise to challenge the world order with their own authoritarian models. Fears that NATO might fall
apart, spurred on largely by the Donald Trump presidency, has even led people like France's
Emannuel Macro to push for Europe to guarantee its own security with a powerful EU military.
Germany would necessarily be the center piece of such a military- if it got its act together.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has successfully swayed German public opinion though,
with now 63% stating that they support the plan to spend $104 billion on the military in coming
years. But Chancellor Scholz hasn't done himself or Germany any favors. His long time refusal and
constant moving of the goal posts in regards to sending Leopard 2s to Ukraine has eroded
Germany's credibility, to the point that much of Europe is once more looking at the US for
leadership in its own backyard. When it comes to military spending, Olaf is once more waffling,
stating one day that he doesn't wish to repeat the mistakes of pre-WW1 Germany in rearming itself,
while the next day stating that a strong German military would encourage its NATO
allies that the nation can be counted on. Scholz has done so much waffling since the
invasion of Ukraine that the man practically runs his own Waffle House at this point- and
it's hurting Germany's image abroad. The Polish people have developed a
very low opinion of their neighbor, with Polish President Andrzej Duda stating,
“The mood here is very critical... Germany's just not a credible power, because it has been
moving so slowly. The focus in Poland is so much about what the US and Great Britain are doing.”
So is Germany ready for a third global war? No, it isn't. Readiness rates have not improved much
since 2018, though we can expect to see this improve in the wake of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. The German Air Force still struggles to put planes in the air,
or give its pilots enough flight hours to remain qualified on their combat jets.
To be prepared for a major power conflict, Germany needs to reverse course on decisions made as far
back as 2008. Back then, German defense thinking gravitated around the reduction
of the German military to become a light, expeditionary force. This suited the nation's
current needs- and greeds- perfectly, as it faced no credible threat at home,
was so intertwined in trade with Russia that it believed Moscow wouldn't threaten the economic
relationship, and, at the time, was only fighting low intensity conflict against insurgent or terror
groups in the middle east. Thus German heavy fighting units began to be dramatically cut,
with heavy combat vehicles being slashed first. Currently, Germany is unlikely to be able to field
even a single heavy brigade, let alone keep it supplied during high intensity combat ops.
Currently, according to a German Ministry of Defense analysis, 71 of Germany's major combat
systems have a readiness rate of about 77 percent. This is a vast improvement,
but many in NATO are casting a skeptical eye on the report given the German military's
previous problems with readiness. 11 system had readiness ratings of under 50 percent though,
with combat vehicles standing at 71%. Naval combat units stood at 72%, combat and transport
aircraft were at 65%, support vehicles at 82%, and helicopters at an abysmal 40%.
The report also found that despite improved readiness rates, the German
military was struggling with modernity issues. Many of its armored vehicles
were either severely aged or obsolete. Its CH-53 helicopters and P-3C patrol aircraft
were in states of crisis and in dire need of replacement. Its attack helicopters were also
in serious trouble and facing big modernity problems. At sea the problem is even worse,
with only 30% of the German navy being fully operational.
But the readiness figures have been cleverly manipulated,
as these figures only account for equipment that the military actually has 'available'
and on hand. The numbers don't account for equipment that is either being repaired or
upgraded by the manufacturer. Of 289 Leopard 2s, only 183 of them are actually available
to the army- or 63 percent. Germany then claims a readiness rate of 75%, which means only 137,
less than half of the entire fleet, is actually ready for combat operations today.
To turn things around Germany needs to restructure its defense industry from the bottom up.
Currently, German defense manufacturers work with a very small number of orders per year. Therefore
in order to avoid shutting a production line down and losing technical expertise,
German arms manufacturers instead work very slowly, dragging the work on each vehicle sent
for repair or upgrade out over months. Increased spending will necessarily mean more production,
but even during protracted lulls, Germany needs to absorb the economic impact of keeping a set
number of production and repair facilities fully staffed and prepared at all times,
instead of shutting them down and consolidating to a smaller number of facilities.
Changing German culture will also be necessary for Germany to repair its
military. Currently Germany is experiencing a surge in popular support for defense spending,
but should the Ukrainian war end in the near future it's unlikely this support
will continue. When it comes to defense, modern Germans are notoriously short-sighted. For one,
there's no strong cultural support of the military in Germany, and the military must compete with
civilian employees to attract soldiers. Given that Germany only ended conscription in 2011,
and is having great difficulty implementing an all-volunteer force,
these do not look like problems that Germany is set to solve anytime soon.
So how would Germany fight a major global conflict in its backyard? Simply put, not very well. One
must not underestimate German industry and its historical power to pump out weapons at high
intensity, but modern warfare moves incredibly quickly and consumes resources at truly
astonishing rates. Even the United States found itself seriously reconsidering the readiness of
both its military and military industrial capacity after the first few months of fighting in Ukraine.
That's why it's important for Germany to build a strong military and military industrial complex
today. For now, the best that Germany could do is provide logistical support and perhaps, at best,
a heavy combat brigade. Germany would rely on the US and the rest of its NATO partners for
all of the heavy lifting. Its naval forces, with a readiness rate hovering around 30%,
would be essentially useless on their own, and instead what ships could actually sail
would find themselves thrown into American or European formations under the command of
foreign admirals. Likewise, its air force would be relegated to fulfilling niche obligations,
incapable of sustaining high tempo combat ops on the front line.
For the sake of European security and the credibility of western democracies, Germany
must reverse course now. The time of coasting on the defense capabilities of others is over.
Now go check out Germany's plan to survive the winter without Russian gas,
or click this other video instead!