US-China tensions are boiling in Southeast Asia
China is trying to influence the region
And Indonesia is at the center of it
Welcome to China Uncensored, I’m Chris Chappell.
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This month, Southeast Asia has taken center stage for geopolitics.
Take that, Russia-Ukraine and North Korea.
Southeast Asia is number one, baby!
Three high-level meetings—the East Asian Summit, the G20 Summit and the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation forum —were held within a week or so in Cambodia, Indonesia, and Thailand.
A lot of issues were on the table, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ongoing threats
from North Korea, and the violent crisis in Myanmar.
Which is sad, because it means that even when Southeast Asia wins, all anyone wants to talk
about are the other guys.
But the big elephant in the room is conflict between the US and China.
This makes members of ASEAN nervous.
ASEAN stands for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Its members include these 10 southeast asian countries.
None of them wants to be forced to choose between China and the US.
Because who could give up that sweet Chinese money?
I’m starting to think China puts crack in their money, because after just one taste,
everyone is super addicted to it.
ASEAN has been China’s biggest trading partner since 2020.
And China’s integral to ASEAN’s economic development.
According to China, “two-way trade has grown by 85 times from 1991 to 2021”.
China has been “ASEAN’s largest trading partner for 13 consecutive years”...
and China has also been ASEAN’s second largest foreign direct investor behind the US.
That’s why Southeast Asian countries don’t want to have to pick.
Which explains why the official themes of each summit have such strong “kumbaya”
vibes.
“Give profit a chance.
I mean peace.
Give *peace* a chance.”
Here’s the Cambodian Secretary of State.
“In our view, China-US relations is the most important relations that matters, not
just to the two countries but also our regional development as well, and I can’t emphasize
enough, you know, that ASEAN remains neutral in this, you know, competition.
We don’t want to choose sides, and frankly speaking, we want to work closely with both
country.”
Man, he sounds like a kid with divorced parents trying to keep both of them in his life...so
he can get two Christmases.
No matter what the US does, the Chinese Communist Party will keep pushing its agenda, trying
to make Southeast Asian countries its pawns.
For example, China wants to counter America’s 14-nation Indo-Pacific Economic Framework,
which addresses things like fair trade, supply chain resilience, and improved infrastructure.
Essentially, America teamed up with several nations to try and improve everyone’s situations,
and China said,
“And I took that personally.”
This is even more relevant now that the US is imposing export controls on semiconductors
and chip making equipment.
China doesn’t want restrictions on its manufacturing supply chains, which is why it’s pushing
to implement what it calls the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
It’s the world’s largest free trade agreement.
Earlier this year ASEAN, along with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea all agreed
to join.
“That translates in practice as closer integration of supply chains, infrastructure connectivity
and the building of a new international land-sea trade corridor.”
That would sure help China get around US sanctions.
China’s also seeking to improve trade directly with ASEAN, using what Chinese state media
calls an ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Version 3.0.
Whereas Version 1.0 established zero tariffs for 90 percent of shipped goods, and Version
2.0 further opened up market access, Version 3.0 is expected to adopt more industrial cooperation.
According to Shi Zhongjun, secretary-general of the ASEAN-China Centre, this includes focusing
on the digital economy and the green economy.
And who would know better about a low-carbon green economy than China?—the country that
emits more carbon than the rest of the developed world combined.
At any rate, these Chinese trade agreements are putting Indonesia front and center of
China’s goals of taking over Southeast Asia.
I’ll explain more after the break.
Welcome back.
China is on the offensive in Southeast Asia.
The Chinese Communist Party’s number two guy, Li Keqiang, held talks with Cambodia’s
prime minister and king.
China’s Vice Premier, Han Zheng, visited Singapore.
And of course, Xi Jinping himself visited Indonesia.
That’s because Indonesia is particularly important.
Of course, Xi was mostly in Indonesia because the G20 summit was there.
It’s the meeting of the world’s 20 largest economies.
But Xi Jinping has also shown his interest in Indonesia by allowing its president, Joko
Widodo, to be the first foreign leader to visit Beijing after the Olympics earlier this
year.
He’s done everything short of surprising them with a box of chocolates and a trail
of rose petals and candles leading from the front door to the bedroom… which is filled
with
piles of that sweet, sweet, addictive Chinese money.
After the G20 summit in Bali, China and Indonesia signed a number of bilateral agreements.
These include a plan to merge Indonesia’s maritime goals with China’s Belt and Road
Initiative; an agreement to expand and deepen trade collaboration; and memorandums of understanding
for joint scientific development, vocational training, and digital economy cooperation.
Why is China putting so much attention on Indonesia?
Well, it has the fourth largest population in the world.
It controls shipping lanes across Southeast Asia.
And it’s a major player in regional politics.
It also has a fifth of the world’s global nickel reserves, which is vital for electric
vehicle supply chains.
As a huge player in the EV industry, you bet China wants in on those resources.
Indonesia also happens to be getting the chairmanship of ASEAN next year.
It rotates each year between the ASEAN countries.
With that in mind, it’s pretty obvious that China wants to get on Indonesia’s good side.
Indonesia in turn seems to be more eager to cooperate with China.
It’s even willing to resume joint military training exercises.
This is despite the fact that China and Indonesia have clashed over the Natuna Islands in the
South China Sea, especially in 2019 and 2020.
This area falls into Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
But Chinese fishing vessels, some of which are part of China’s maritime militia, have
been fishing those waters anyway.
These are grayzone tactics, incursions that are short-of-war but still assert power over
other nations.
And these tactics are very familiar to other ASEAN countries that have dealt with China
in the South China Sea.
“Indonesian maritime-law enforcement officials claim these incursions have not stopped since
then—they have simply become less publicized.”
So what gives?
Why is Indonesia doing military training exercises with an authoritarian regime that threatens
its own territory?
That’s like opening a savings account with a bank that’s trying to foreclose on your
home.
Well, it’s not that Indonesia is ignorant of China’s maritime ambitions.
Indonesia is beefing up its naval fleet of submarines and corvettes to counter China
in the Natuna Sea.
And according to a survey conducted last year by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think
tank, Indonesians are growing more wary of China.
Compared to 2011, more Indonesians think their country should join others to limit China’s
influence, and fewer believe that China’s growth has been good for them.
At this point, the Chinese Communist Party is like cigarettes.
If someone says they don’t know they’re bad for you, they’re either lying or stupid.
The problem is Indonesian policymakers.
They’re hooked on Chinese investment, especially when it comes to infrastructure.
China is offering so many collaborative projects!
Who could say no to them?
So politicians prefer to downplay the conflict.
Kind of like how mob wives prefer not to think about how their husbands are able to afford
getting them so much nice jewelry.
While Indonesia does push back against China’s grayzone tactics, responses are often made
in private.
Either that or they’re done in a largely symbolic manner without real teeth.
“Indonesian policymakers are prone to viewing gray-zone incursions as short-term maritime
law-enforcement problems, rather than a wider strategic gambit by China.”
“Indonesia compartmentalizes the problem by separating its bilateral ties with China
from the North Natuna Sea issue, the South China Sea dispute and great-power politics.”
So their entire military strategy is “This is fine.”
Indonesia also sees China as a good counterbalance against the US, given that a lot of Indonesians
have negative views of US interventionism.
So on the off chance that the US might intervene, they’re working with a country that’s
actively intervening.
Good strategy.
The Biden administration is trying to counter Chinese influence in Indonesia and other ASEAN
states with a “New Era in U.S.-ASEAN Relations.”
“For the administration, that means wooing ASEAN countries away from highly lucrative
trade with China with more U.S. help in areas including climate action, health and energy.”
This is like one big geopolitical game of the Bachelor.
Will they give a rose to China or the US?
But here’s the problem: ASEAN’s priorities don’t align with Biden’s Indo-Pacific
Strategy.
For one, the strategy says that “The United States will be a partner in strengthening
democratic institutions, the rule of law, and accountable democratic governance.”
Um... not everyone wants that.
Especially authoritarian governments.
Literally half of ASEAN countries are communist, fake democracies, or just straight up dictatorships.
They think letting their citizens vote is like asking their dog where they want to go
for dinner.
The idea of excluding China isn’t very appealing to them.
Especially if it means they have to also have transparent governance and horrible things
like that.
And *especially* since back in May, the US only offered a measly 150 million dollars
in development money—split among all 10 ASEAN countries.
Really, it all comes down to money.
And America’s isn’t as addictive as China’s, since there isn’t as much of it.
“Many ASEAN states see the Biden administration’s regional economic plan, the Indo-Pacific Economic
Framework for Prosperity, as a bunch of talk with few concrete actions—especially if
the United States does not include expanding market access.”
Biden’s trying to woo them once more by launching the US-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic
Partnership to reinforce maritime cooperation, environmental goals, women’s empowerment,
and economic cooperation.
But as long as China keeps pumping money, ASEAN countries will want to continue allowing
China to build their infrastructure.
This is something the US needs to keep working on.
Even when Southeast Asia is no longer on the center stage for geopolitics.
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Once again, I’m Chris Chappell.
Thanks for watching China Uncensored.