hi
a year and a half ago I didn't speak to
anyone unless I really had to but then I
found a reason to speak since then I've
given many speeches and learned that
when you talk in public you should start
with something personal or emotional to
get everyone's attention say things like
our house is on fire
I wanted to panic or how dare you but
today I will not do that because then
those phrases are all that people focus
on they don't remember the facts the
very reason why I say those things in
the first place we no longer have time
to leave out the science for about a
year I have been constantly talking
about our rapidly declining carbon
budgets over and over again but since
there is still being ignored I will just
keep repeating it in chapter 2 on page
108 in the SR 1.5 IPCC report that came
out last year it says that if we are to
have a six to seven percent chance of
limiting the global temperature rise to
below 1.5 degrees Celsius we had on
January 1st 2018 420 gigatons of co2
left to emits in that budget and of
course that number is much lower today
as we emits about 40 to gigatons of co2
every year including land use with
today's emissions levels that remaining
budgets will be gone within about eight
years these numbers aren't anyone's
opinions or political views this is the
current best available science though
many scientists suggest these figures
are too moderates these are the ones
that have been accepted through the IPCC
and please note that these figures are
global and therefore do not say anything
about the aspects of equity which is
absolutely essential to make the Paris
agreement work on a global scale that
means that rich countries need to do
their fair share and get down to real
zero emissions much faster and then help
poorer countries do the same so people
in less fortunate parts of the world can
raise their living standards these
numbers also don't include most feedback
loops nonlinear tipping points or
additional warming hidden by toxic air
pollution most models assume however
that future generations will somehow be
able to suck hundreds of billions of
tons of co2 out of the air with
technologies that do not exist in the
scale required and maybe never will the
approximate 67% chance budget is the one
with the highest odds given by the IPCC
and now we have less than 340 gigatons
of co2 left to emit in that budget to
share fairly and why is it so important
to stay below 1.5 degrees because even a
1 degree people are dying from the
climate crisis because that's what the
united science calls for to avoid
destabilizing the climates so that we
have the best possible chance to avoid
setting of irreversible chain reactions
such as melting glaciers polarize and
throwing bockting permafrost every
fraction of a degree matters so there it
is again
this is my message
this is what I want you to focus on so
please tell me how do you react to these
numbers without feeling at least some
level of panic how do you respond to the
fact that basically nothing is being
done about this without feeling the
slightest bits of anger and how do you
communicate this without sounding
alarmist I would really like to know
since the Paris agreement global banks
have invested one point nine trillion
u.s. dollars in fossil fuels 100
companies are responsible for 71 percent
of global emissions the g20 countries
account for almost 80 percent of total
emissions the richest 10% of the world's
population produce half of our co2
emissions while the poorest 50 percent
account for just 1/10 we indeed have
some work to do but some of more than
others recently a handful of rich
countries pledged to reduce their
emissions of greenhouse gases by so on
so many percent by this or that date or
to become climate neutral or Net Zero in
so on so many years
this may sound impressive at first
glance but even though the intentions
may be good this is not leadership this
is not leading this is misleading
because most of these pledges do not
include aviation shipping and imported
and exported goods in consumption they
do however include the possibility of
countries to offset their emissions
elsewhere these pledges don't include
the immediate yearly reduction rates
needed for wealthy country
which is necessary to stay within the
remaining tiny budget zero in 2050 means
nothing if high emission continues even
for a few years then the remaining
budget will be gone without seeing the
full picture we will not solve this
crisis finding holistic solutions is
what the cop should be all about but
instead it seems to have turned into
some kind of opportunity for countries
to negotiate loopholes and to avoid
raising their ambition
countries are finding clever ways around
having to take real action like double
counting emissions reductions and moving
their emissions overseas
and working back on their promises to
increase ambition refusing to pay for
solutions or loss and damage this has to
stop what we need is real drastic
emission cuts at the source but of
course just reducing emissions is not
enough our greenhouse gas emissions has
to stop to stay below 1.5 degrees we
need to keep the carbon in the ground
only setting up distant dates and saying
things which give the impression of that
action is underway will most likely do
more harm than good
because the changes required are still
nowhere in sight
the politics needed does not exist today
despite what you might hear from world
leaders and I still believe that the
biggest danger is not inaction the real
danger is when politicians and CEOs are
making it look like real action is
happening when in fact almost nothing is
being done
apart from clever accounting and
creative PR
I have been fortunate enough to be able
to travel around the world and my
experience is that the lack of awareness
is the same everywhere not the least
amongst those elected to lead us there
is no sense of urgency whatsoever our
leaders are not behaving as if we were
in an emergency in an emergency you
change your behavior if there's a child
standing in the middle of the road and
cars are coming at full speed
you don't look away because it's too
uncomfortable you immediately run out
and rescue that child and without that
sense of urgency how can we the people
understand that we are facing a real
crisis and if the people are not fully
aware of what is going on then they will
not put pressure on the people in power
to do to the act and without pressure
from the people our leaders can get away
with basically not doing anything well
which is where we are now and around and
around it goes in just three weeks we
will enter a new decade a decade they
will define our future right now we are
desperate for any sign of hope well I'm
telling you there is hope I have seen it
but it does not come from the
governments or corporations it comes
from the people the people who have been
unaware but are now starting to wake up
and once we become aware we change
people can change
people are ready for change and that is
the hope because we have democracy and
democracy is happen
all the time not just on Election Day
but every second and every hour it is
public opinion that runs the free world
in fact every great change throughout
history has come from the people we do
not have to wait we can start the change
right now we the people thank you
[Applause]