There is now a new and potentially major problem at the Shiveluch volcano in Russia.
For context, it had made the news in early April as on April 11th, 2023 a major explosive
eruption occurred at the Sheveluch volcano in Russia, representing the largest volcanic
eruption to occur on the planet in approximately 15 months.
Whereas beforehand this volcano contained a prominent lava dome which was nearly 600
meters or 2,000 feet in height, it now contains a 1 kilometer or 3,280 foot wide explosion
crater in its place.
To help explain what the new problem is post April 2023 eruption, I am going to display
two satellite images.
In the first image taken from orbit on April 30th 2023 you can see the widespread ash and
some of the pyroclastic flow deposits from its major eruption along with thermal signatures
originating from its growing lava dome.
And now, here is the volcano a day later on May 1st 2023.
Comparing the two images side by side, you can see that a large area on the western side
of the volcano outside of the 1964 collapse scar has seemingly melted overnight.
This is not due to the weather but rather something worrying.
Satellites and on the ground cameras have recorded that the area which melted suddenly
had two groups of fumaroles appear, which were measured to reach temperatures of greater
than 100 degrees` Celsius.
Fumaroles had been previously intermittently active on this spot of the volcano, but never
created plumes higher than 50 meters as they were quite weak.
Yet, the fumaroles suddenly reached a record high level of activity, producing a 1200 meter
high steam and volcanic gas plume.
For those of you who live around the Shiveluch volcano, this is now why you see two volcanic
plumes with the other originating from the still erupting aka growing lava dome to the
east.
This is occurring just south of the Karan with two As lava dome which probably last
erupted around 3,500 years ago.
Simultaneous with all of this activity, a new and highly energetic earthquake swarm
occurred, with a magnitude 4.8 representing the largest quake to occur.
In my opinion all of this activity points towards a single conclusion; a new batch of
magma is intruding onto the western side of the Shiveluch volcano and is probably currently
at a depth of less than 1,000 meters.
Althought the magma could be a bit deeper, this activity is highly unusual.
In the next few days to weeks, magma could simply stall and nothing happens.
Or, it could reach the surface, interacting with regional groundwater, and generate a
series of powerful explosions.
These explosions would create ash plumes that reach up to a height of 15 kilometers or 49,200
feet into the atmosphere, in addition to creating energetic pyroclastic flows that could travel
in my opinion up to 15 kilometers to the west, being directed in that direction due to the
regional topography around any new vent on the western flank.
If this were to occur, it would place a wide swath of the western flank of the volcano
at risk, specifically a minimum of 95 square kilometers, with this region having not experienced
any volcanic hazards apart from ash in the last several thousand years.
Thus, although I do not work for the Russian government or have the authority to declare
exclusion zones or evacuation radiuses, I would like to say the following.
In my opinion based on the current situation, I would recommend a new 20 kilometer exclusion
zone be declared on the western flank of the volcano based around the center of the new
fumaroles adjacent to the Karan lava dome, between 127 and 220 degrees, which just so
happens to include a north to south road, with 0 degrees being due east and 90 degrees
was due north.
This is in addition to a 15 kilometer radius around the volcano in every other direction,
although you should also not travel on any pyroclastic flow deposits from the April 11
2023 eruption as they are likely to be still quite hot.
My justification for such a large exclusion zone is this type of activity is that we are
unsure what will happen next, as the possibility of a new dome forming on Shiveluch's western
flank is unprecedented in the last 100 years.
Thanks for watching!
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