On that front what degree of difficulty you attach to the task at hand in front of the Fed right now. You mentioned storm
clouds. Yeah I'm going to change this storm clouds. I said I said there are three things that we're going through which are I
hate the word on trust. Debt which a kind of unprecedented. And you've got to put this in back your mind when you haven't when
you've seen things we've never happened before then you have to question your ability to predict if one is huge growth in this
country driven by fiscal and monetary stimulation. That isn't a normal recovery. Okay. And then that fiscal
stimulation is still in the pocketbooks of consumers are spending it. Spending a very strong levels. And the data's
completely just is distorted by inflation is stored by they went from goods back to services is destroyed by always. But jobs are
plentiful. Wages are going up. Consumers are spending. The lower income folks not quite as much as before but everybody else. It
looks like they have two trillion dollars more savings rate drop. I don't like this guys. Stop the spending. That's six or
nine months. And and so. So that's me. Is the bright clouds out there.
But it's different. The Fed has to meet this now with raising rates and Kuti and the
new part of this isn't the raising rates. It's the Kuti. The Kuti has. We've never had QE before like this.
Therefore we've never had Kuti like this. So you're looking at something that could be right in history
books on for 50 years. What was QE what worked what didn't work. I think a lot of parts
of QE backfired. I think the negative rates was probably a huge mistake for a whole bunch of reasons. Boy with now. But you got
to raise rates. They might do. They have to do Kuti. They do not have a choice because there's so much liquid in the
system. They have to remove some liquidity to stop the speculation to reduce oil prices like that. And you've never
been through Kuti. So all the major if you look if you go back to 2010 as a whole all the major buyers of treasuries all that
time it was central banks foreign exchange managers banks who were topping up the liquidity profiles because we had to for
regulations. All three it won't happen. The go round. Banks are topped up foreign exchange markets topped up. The central bank
would be selling off fine and governments have much more fiscal deficit to finance. That's a huge change in the flow of funds
around the world. I don't know what the effect of that is. I prepared for you to be a minimum. Huge volatility. And the third
thing is Ukraine that you've not had a European land war since 1945. Okay. And you could end the complexity of Ukraine is we
don't know the outcome. I always make the list. You know you predict the outcome. Well you couldn't predict the outcome of
Vietnam Korea Afghanistan Iraq and other conflagrations. All wrong wars go bad. They go south. They have unintended
consequences. And this happens to be world and commodity markets of the world wheat oil gas and stuff like that which in my view
will continue. We're not taking the proper actions to protect Europe from what's going to happen in oil in the short run. And
we're not taking the proper actions to protect you. All was capped oil in the next five years which means it almost has to
go up the price. We're not investing enough money to keep oil. No. And for all those who love climate change. If
oil prices go to 175 or 150 which I kind of think is in the cards to tell the truth not in the medium run but down the road
then CO2 won't go down which is everyone predicts because people buy less oil and gas is going to go up because all those other
countries out there the poor countries who need oil and gas to feed and heat their their citizens will turn off will not buy
oil and gas to buy coal. That's what's going to happen. CO2 will go up. It won't come down. And we're not we're not dealing with
this challenge. So those three things fiscally induced growth. Q T Ukraine war I I'm a changed the storm clouds out there every
day. Look I'm an optimist. You know I I I said there's storm clouds there. Big storm clouds are it's a hurricane. It's right
now it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down
the road. Coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy or Sandy or or Andrew or something like
that. And it's seeing. But you better brace yourself. So JP Moore is bracing ourselves and going to be very conservative
balance sheet on all his capital uncertainty. We're going to have to take actions. And I kind of want to shed non
non-operated deposits again which we can do in size to protect ourselves so we can serve clients in bad times. And so that's
the environment we're dealing with. And you know I think it's OK to hope that it end up OK.
I hope it. That's my Goldilocks. I hope.
Who the hell knows.