LANHEE CHEN A FELLOW OF PUBLIC POLICY STUDIES AT THE HOOVER
INSTITUTE. LET'S START OUT FROM THE
BEGINNING. WHAT DOES BIDENOMICS MEAN?
LANHEE: THE COLLECTION OF ALL THE
THINGS HE HAS DONE IN THE WHITE HOUSE'S EFFORTS TO PACKAGE HIS
RECORD FOR THINGS VOTERS MIGHT LIKE, PRO-INTERVENTIONIST IS A
BIGGER GOVERNMENT SET OF POLICIES THAT INCLUDES BY THE
WAY MIGRATING INTO INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN THE FORM OF THE CHIPS
BACK WHICH THE PRESIDENT IS PROUD OF AND GOT BIPARTISAN
SUPPORT IN THE CONGRESS BUT WHAT I THINK IT IS IS AN EFFORT
TO SELL HIS ECONOMIC RECORD AHEAD OF AN ELECTION WHERE
VOTERS MAY HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT EXACTLY WHAT HIS ECONOMIC
RECORD HAS BEEN AND THEIR MEMORY IS LAST YEAR'S RECESSION.
[CROSSTALK] INFLATION, EXCUSE ME, AND A
POSSIBLE RECESSION TO COME. JOE: HE IS TRYING TO GET INTO
PEOPLE'S LIVING ROOMS WITH A CAMPAIGN-STYLE EVENT.
BIDENOMICS HAS BEEN A BRAND AND PEOPLE HAVE BEEN TROUBLE
DEFINING IT ALTHOUGH YOU TOOK A SWING AT IT THEY ARE BUT WHEN
YOU'RE DEALING WITH APPROVAL RATINGS IN THE 30'S OR LOW 30'S
-- 40'S AS HE IS IS IT BECAUSE THE SUBJECT MATTER IS A LITTLE
TOO ESOTERIC FOR THE LIVING ROOM?
YOU'D POINTED OUT THE CHIPS BACK? THEY ARE BANKING LANHEE:
ON THE ECONOMY TO REMAIN STRONG AND BANKING ON THE SOFT LANDING
AND A LOT OF THINGS THEY ARE HOPING FOR AND I THINK THEIR
VIEW IS THAT MOST VOTERS WILL VOTE THEIR POCKETBOOKS AND I
THINK IF YOU LOOK AT RECENT ELECTIONS, THAT IN ZIPPING THE
CASE MOST OF THE TIME, SO IF YOU THINK VOTERS WILL BE VOTING
THEIR POCKETBOOKS, YOU BETTER MAKE A CASE THE PRESIDENT IS
DOING A GOOD JOB ON THE ECONOMIC ISSUES.
THIS IS AN EFFORT TO REFRAIN THE ELECTION ON TERMS THEY
THINK ARE FAVORABLE. ANNMARIE: WHEN CONSUMERS AMERICANS GO TO
THE VOTING BOOTHS AND YOU ARE SAYING TO JOE'S POINT NO ONE IS
AT THE TABLE TALKING ABOUT THE CHIPS BACK. LANHEE: RIGHT.
KAILEY: OR THE INFRASTRUCTURE THERE
TRYING TO DO OR HAVE JANET YELLEN DESCRIBED EXPANDING THE
UNITED STATES, THAT WILL NOT BE FELT BY NOVEMBER NEXT YEAR.
LANHEE: IT WILL NOT BE FELT BUT THEY
CAN ALWAYS MAKE THE CASE THEY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR WHATEVER
POSITIVE MEASURES WE ARE SEEING IN THE ECONOMIES OF FOR EXAMPLE
THE ROBUST JOB CREATION WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS IS
SOMETHING THEY WOULD TRY TO TAKE CREDIT FOR, AND SO EVEN IF
HER MOST AMERICANS ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT THE CHIPS BACK,
THE ADMINISTRATION WILL TALK ABOUT IT IN TERMS OF CRATING
JOBS AND CREATING A POSITIVE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND
BRINGING JOBS BACK TO AMERICA IN COUNTERING COERCION BY
CHINA, THESE ARE THE THEMES THAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS TO
FOCUS ON BECAUSE THEY BELIEVE THEY WILL SELL WITH VOTERS AND
THEY DO NOT HAVE TO BE ESOTERIC. THEY CAN TRY TO BRING THEM TO
US A RELATABLE PLACES THEY CAN.
JOE: GOLD SOME OF THIS OUT OF THE
PRESIDENT'S HANDS, AS THE WHITE HOUSE DEFERS TO THE FEDERAL
RESERVE ON THE ISSUE OF INFLATION AND I KNOW THEY HAVE
TAKEN A COUPLE SWINGS AT THIS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
HANDS OF JEROME POWELL AND IT IS A QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER HE
WILL HAVE TO SMASH THE JOB MARKET TO WIN THE WAR ON
INFLATION AND IF HE DOES WILL IT COINCIDE WITH THE THROES OF
THIS REELECTION CAMPAIGN?
LANHEE: THE TOUGHEST THING FOR ANY
PRESIDENT IN REELECTION CAMPAIGN IS RECOGNIZING SO MUCH
AS OUT OF YOUR CONTROL AND SO THEY ARE MAKING A BET THAT
JEROME POWELL CAN DO JUST WELL ENOUGH THAT VOTERS WILL ASSESS
THE ECONOMIC RECORD POSITIVELY IN THE PRESIDENT WILL BENEFIT
FROM IT THAT THERE IS A RISK AND EVERYONE UNDERSTANDS AND
RECOGNIZES THAT BUT THE ALTERNATIVE IS THE RISK THE
PRESIDENT DOES NOT GET CREDIT FOR THE POLICY THINGS HE REALLY
FEELS HE SHOULD GET CREDIT OR IN SOME OF THIS MIGHT BE DRIVEN
BY THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF WANTING TO FEEL LIKE HE CAN
MARKET SOME OF WHAT HIS ADMINISTRATION HAS DONE AND
THAT IS A NATURAL THING, POLITICIANS WANT TO SPEAK
POSITIVELY ABOUT THE THINGS THEY HAVE DONE SO THIS IS THE
PUSH AND PULL OF TRYING TO HAVE A CAMPAIGN THEME AND RIDE THE
WAVE THAT THEY THINK WILL BE THERE IN SOME OF WHAT THE
CANDIDATE WANTS. ALSO WHAT THEY HAVE LEARNED
FROM THE PAST. THERE HAS BEEN CRITICISM THAT OBAMA DID NOT GO
OUT ENOUGH AND EXPLAIN AND SO OBAMACARE. ANNMARIE:
JOE BRINGS UP JAY POWELL AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE SO
SHOULDN'T THIS ADMINISTRATION WHEN EVERYONE BRINGS UP
INFLATION THE BASHING OR CRITICIZING THE FED CHAIR SAINT
THAT IS UP TO THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND BAIT POTENTIALLY
WHAT MANY CRITICS SAY ARE BEHIND? LANHEE:
TO COME BACK TO THE POINT OF WHAT PEOPLE SORT OF SEE AND
UNDERSTAND ON THE DAILY BASIS, THE FED IS NOT AN INSTITUTION
MOST PEOPLE PAY ATTENTION TO. [LAUGHTER]
BLOOMBERG VIEWERS PAY ATTENTION TO IT. ANNMARIE: WE DO. LANHEE:
YOU DO. BUT VOTERS ARE TALKING ABOUT
FRANKLY WHAT DO WE THINK THE PRESIDENT'S RESPONSIBILITY IS A
NOT FOR THE ECONOMY, SO EVEN IF THE GOAL WERE TO DEFECT BLAMED,
AS THE PRESIDENT, THE BUCK STOPS WITH THE PRESIDENT SO I
DO NOT THINK IT IS AN EFFECTIVE STRATEGY FOR THE PRESIDENT OR
THE WHITE HOUSE TO SAY THAT IS JEROME POWELL'S PROBLEM.
FIRST OF ALL KNOW IT KNOWS WHO JEROME POWELL ISN'T AT THE END
OF THE DATA DOES NOT MATTER. VOTERS WILL BLAME THE PRESIDENT
OR GIVE THE PRESENT CREDIT. THAT IS HOW AMERICAN POLITICS
WORKS.
JOE: CONTRARIAN VIEW. GOING BACK TO GEORGE H W BUSH
WITH 90 SOMETHING PERCENT APPROVAL RATINGS, IMAGINE THAT
TODAY, BUT BEING TOPPLED WHEN THE ECONOMY WENT INTO RECESSION
OR AT LEAST THE PERCEPTION OF A WEAK ECONOMY.
THIS PRESIDENT IS ALREADY IN THE 30'S AND IF WE HAVE A
RECESSION NEXT YEAR, DOES IT EVEN MATTER? LANHEE:
THE MACRO DRIVES A LOT OF THE OUTCOME AND HIS NUMBERS ARE
WEAK GOING INTO THIS PART OF THE CYCLE.
UH IF WE HIT A RECESSIONARY PERIOD AND PEOPLE ARE FEELING
IT, I DO THINK HE IS TOAST, ALMOST IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO
THE REPUBLICANS RUN. IT IS A CIRCUMSTANCE DONALD
TRUMP IS EXCITED ABOUT, BUT AT THE END OF THE
DAY THE MACRO CONDITIONS WOULD DRIVE A LOT OF HOW PEOPLE SEE
THIS PRESIDENT, AND SO MUCH OF THIS UNFORTUNATE FOR THE WHITE
HOUSE WILL BE OUT OF THEIR CONTROL. JOE:
LOT TO LOOK FORWARD TO THEIR.