Hi, I’m Dr. Bertalan Mesko, The Medical Futurist, and in this video I’d like to
talk about what we can expect to see from the pharmaceutical industry in this new decade.
With leaps in A.I., patient empowerment and 3D printed drugs, I want to present 5 pharma
trends that will be the focus of pharmaceutical companies in the coming years.
The revenue of the worldwide pharmaceutical market is 1.2 trillion dollars. With such
capital at stake and with the pace of technological disruption, the pharma industry has to adapt
to the changing times. They have to embrace new technologies, therapies and innovations
and put a greater focus on prevention and digital health. Smart pharma companies are
already making moves into these spaces, so let’s take a dive into the five trends how
big pharma will adapt to these changing times.
A.I. for drug R&D
A recent report forecasts that the market of artificial intelligence in global healthcare
will reach 31 billion dollars by 2025. A.I.‘s myriad of applications can bring speed and
savings in this sector, so pharma companies were quick to recognize that.
Companies like Atomwise, Turbine and Deep Genomics use artificial intelligence to identify
the most suitable drugs for medical conditions. Compared to traditional methods, they are
doing it way more efficiently, and in record time, while they actually manage to cut down
on the costs. A prime example is Atomwise, a company that’s providing its algorithm
to perform drug research in developing a treatment for treating Ebola.
The algorithm predicted that two compounds would prevent the Ebola virus from entering
the cell. This analysis, which typically would have taken months or even years, was completed
in days!
With the potential that lies in A.I-aided drug design. I even expect to see an startup
using A.I. for drug design becoming a pharma company itself and soon running its own clinical
trials soon.
This will allow such a company to have more input in a drug’s fate and see it through
from conception to fruition, rather than just lending its algorithm and having big pharma
take over the rest of the process.
Patient design We talk a lot about how patient design is
the way forward and I fully expect drug companies to realize that too. If they want to stay
ahead of the curve, they will undeniably have to involve patients in their decision-making
processes. In our connected world aided with health trackers and online communities, patients
are more empowered than ever to make their demands heard.
In a previous video we’ve talked about how, in the case of diabetes, patients basically
barged through an impenetrable ivory tower of big pharma, after they failed to provide
innovative products to better attend to their needs. The community decided to not wait anymore
and took matters in its own hands. This movement led to initiatives like open-sourced DIY
artificial pancreas, discussion platforms and cloud-based solutions like Tidepool,
which makes diabetes data more accessible and actionable.
Heeding to the patient’s demands, the FDA approved the first artificial pancreas two
years after the DIY artificial pancreas was made publicly available. By further embracing
patients’ input, the FDA created its own patient engagement advisory board.
Pharma companies need to follow the FDA’s move. The rise of DIY medicine movements show
that people want their voices heard when it comes to making medicine more available and
affordable. Drug companies must involve patients in drug designs, trials and even decision-making
to better attend to their needs. In silico trials
You’ve heard of in vivo and in vitro experiments before, now you’ll have to get used to in
silico ones which are experiments conducted by a computer simulation. Yes, we are getting
close to simulating organs, and testing the effects of different drugs and treatments
on them. This technology can completely bypass in vivo clinical testing. Besides the obvious
time and cost effectiveness, in silico trials completely circumvent animal testing as well
and side effects on human and animal participants. As it stands today, the technology and biological
understanding are not there yet to simulate clinical trials at 100%, but with big players
like the FDA betting heavily on in silico trials, key players are envisioning a future where
we’ll eventually get there.. New technologies in the supply chain
Technological innovation not only impacts drug development but also the drug supply
chain in. As I said, with A.I., pharma companies can slash the time of drug development from
years to days, saving cost and time while shortening the drug production cycle so they
reach patients faster. Further shortening the cycle is the integration
of robotics. Companies like Denso Robotics offer robots to automate tasks in the manufacturing
processes. Robotics, in the form of exoskeletons, can further augment manual labour by assisting
them with heavy loads and long hours. Security along the supply chain can also benefit
from a boost with a technology originating from the financial system: blockchain. Counterfeit
drugs might offer a cheaper alternative but they are the cause of tens of thousands of
deaths worldwide, while the fake drug trade continues to be a profitable multi-billion
dollar business. In Asia, Africa and South America, such drugs make up around 10-30%
of the total medicines on sale. Blockchain could bring a radical security measure to
the drug distribution chain via a barcode record system that can be tracked from the
manufacturer to the end user. This way, medicines can be tracked in real-time by authorized
parties and patients, making it much more difficult for criminal networks to thrive.
By being a simple yet secure measure, we will see pharma companies investing more and more
into blockchain.
New drug strategies Rather than focusing on traditional drug manufacturing
and marketing, pharma companies will focus on newer approaches relying on technology
to appeal more to providers and payers. The “around the pill” strategy is one
such approach. It means that rather than just producing and selling drugs as they are, It’s
about developing a drug and attaching a digital health technology to it instead.
Let me show you an example: When pharma giant Roche saw a potential in a technology-centric
approach like that, they acquired the mySugr app diabetes management app and paired it
with Roche’s Accu-Chek Guide glucose meter. With that method they allowed diabetics to
have a new, gamified experience to manage their condition. By logging in their blood
glucose levels, completing tasks and challenges, users can “tame their diabetes monster”.
Today, Roche’s head of diabetes-care unit, forecasts that “the way forward will mean
selling a total experience, not just a product.” To offer another glimpse into the future,
soon you can even print your medications at home. Since the FDA approved Spritam, the
first 3D-printed prescription drug to treat symptoms of epilepsy, the technology has been
slowly but surely improving. Researchers are now even investigating the manufacture of multi-layered
“polypills” via 3D-printing. These are made to contain several drugs with the aim
to help patients adhere to their regimen and better manage their medications. Drug companies
will definitely need to invest in developing this technology further to better help patient
treatments. So, these are the five trends I expect big
pharma to follow in the upcoming years. If you think there are other aspects that will
be the focus of the pharmaceutical industry, share in the comments below, and if you want
to check out my more detailed video on patient design or the future of AI, click on the thumbnails.
Cheers!