Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for winter twenty-twenty-three.
Most areas are likely to be drier and warmer than usual, in the coming months.
First, let's look at recent conditions.
Australia had a drier autumn than usual with below average rainfall in many areas.
While rainfall in March and April was above average for some areas, especially after the
impact of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa, this contrasted with dry conditions in May.
With rainfall around 70% below average, this May has been one of Australia's driest on
record since 1900.
It has been the coolest autumn in more than a decade.
While parts of eastern Australia had warmer days than usual, many areas had cool autumn
nights.
Overnight temperatures during May were below average almost everywhere.
Soil moisture remains higher than usual in some areas, but soils are drying out.
A number of areas are now drier than normal including parts of the
Murray–Darling Basin and much of the South West Land Division.
Most water storages remain high in eastern and northern areas after 3 wet years.
However, storages are less than 50% in some locations.
The long-range forecast for winter shows it's likely to be drier than usual for most areas.
It's northern Australia's dry season, so much of this region typically has low rainfall
at this time of year.
Large parts of Australia have an increased chance of unusually low rainfall this winter.
Some areas in the south are more than 3 times as likely to have rainfall in the lowest 20%
of records.
Streamflows are likely to remain relatively high over the coming months in south-eastern
areas, including northern Tasmania.
While it's very likely most areas will have generally warmer days than usual – it's
the coolest 3 months of the year – so there will still be times of cold, wintry conditions.
Southern areas have an increased chance of unusually high winter temperatures.
Much of Western Australia and parts of the east are more than 4 times as likely to have
warmer days.
Warmer nights are also likely in many areas, with cooler nights for western New South Wales,
southern Queensland and eastern South Australia, extending into southern parts of the Northern
Territory.
Cooler and drier conditions over winter also mean an increased risk of frost for inland
southern Australia.
Australian fire agencies have identified some areas with above normal fire potential this
winter.
These include a large area of the Northern Territory, far north-western South Australia
and some pockets in New South Wales.
Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climates.
In April 2023, the global sea surface temperature was the highest on record for that month.
Models show that both El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions may develop
this winter.
Both influences are likely contributing to the drier conditions shown in the long-range
forecast.
So, in summary, this winter we're likely to see:
below average rainfall almost everywhere
warmer days than usual
an increased risk of frost, and
above normal bushfire potential in parts of NSW, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
You can find the latest long-range forecasts on the Bureau's website.
Bye for now.