>> Stephen: WELCOME BACK TO THE LIVE SHOW.
MY NEXT GUEST IS THE SEER OF SEERS, SAGE OF SAGES,
THE PROGNOSTICATOR OF PROGNOSTICATORS, AND ELECTION
PROPHET EXTRAORDINARY.
PLEASE WELCOME NATE SILVER!
( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ) COME ON UP.
RIGHT HERE.
CAN CLOSE TO ME, PLEASE.
ALL RIGHT, NATE, GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.
ISN'T IT LOVELY HERE?
>> YEAH.
>> Stephen: NOW, EVERYBODY KNOWS YOU.
YOU ARE THE FOUNDER AND EDITOR IN CHIEF OF
fivethirtyeight.com.
( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ) NOW, I'M GOING ON START WITH Aen
QUESTION EVERYBODY ASKS YOU EVERY TIME THEY SEE YOU: WHO
WILL WIN?
>> WELL, LET'S PUT IT LIKE THIS.
SO CLINTON CAME IN WITH ABOUT A SEVEN-POINT LEAD.
>> Stephen: TONIGHT.
>> BEFORE THE DEBATE, AND THE POLLS SHOWED AND THE SCIENTIFIC
POLLS-- AND THE UNSCIENTIFIC POLLS SHOWED CLINTON WINNING THE
DEBATE.
IT'S AS THOUGH SHE WAS READY IN THE FOOTBALL GAME AND TRUMP
THREW A PICK-SIX.
SO IT'S NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD FOR DONALD J.TRUMP.
>> Stephen: HERE'S THE THING-- YOU HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY
ACCURATE OVER THE LAST FEW ELECTIONS WITH ONE EXCEPTION,
WITH ONE CANDIDATE.
WHO IS THE CANDIDATE YOU GOT WRONG?
>> WE EVOLVED.
WE WERE SKEPTICAL.
>> Stephen: WHO DID YOU GET WRONG.
WHAT WAS HIS NAME?
>> DONALD J. TRUMP.
>> Stephen: WHY DID YOU GET HIM WRONG?
>> WE HAD SILLY IDEAS AND DIDN'T LOOK AT THE POLLS.
THE POLLS WERE PRETTY ACCURATE IN THE G.O.P. PRIMARY AND HAD
HIM AHEAD THE WHOLE WAY.
A COUPLE OF STATES LIKE IOWA WHERE HE WAS SUPPOSED TO WIN HE
DIDN'T.
THE PROBLEM IS RIGHT NOW HE HAS ONLY ABOUT 38% OF THE VOTE.
CLINTON HAS 45% OF THE VOTES.
THERE ARE SOME UNDECIDEDS LEFT.
I DON'T THINK HE DID A GOOD JOB OF PERSUADING THEM TONIGHT.
>> Stephen: WHO IS UNDECIDED?
I THINK AT THIS POINT THOSE PEOPLE DON'T NEED MORE
INFORMATION.
THEY NEED MORE MEDICATION.
WHO IS UNDECIDED?
>> THEY ARE PEOPLE WHO DON'T T LIKE EITHER CANDIDATE.
THERE IS A GUY NAMED EVAN McMULLIN IN UTAH WHO IS
LITERALLY SOMEONE NO ONE HEARD OF AND HE IS LEADING IN POLLS IN
UTAH BECAUSE UTAH IS WEIRD AND PEOPLE ARE SO FED UP WITH THE
MAJOR CANDIDATES.
>> Stephen: HE'S RUNNING FOR CANDIDATE?
>> YEAH.
>> Stephen: WHAT'S HIS NAME.
>> EVAN McMULLIN.
>> Stephen: THERE IS A GUY I NEVER HEARD OF WHO MIGHT WIN THE
ELECERAL VOTE IN UTAH?
>> LITERALLY, NOBODY HEARD OF HIM UNTIL SEVEN DAYS AGO.
>> Stephen: SEVEN DAYS AGO?
>> I MEAN, YOU KNOW, HE MOVED FROM 10% TO 31% IN THE POLLS IN
THE SPAN OF ABOUT A WEEK.
>> Stephen: WOW!
OKAY.
WHAT ARE THE ODDS THIS IS OVER ON NOVEMBER 9?
BECAUSE TRUMP SAYS, "YEAH, I'LL LET YOU KNOW."
>> I MOON, PEOPLE-- TRUMP HAS OCCUPIED SO MUCH SPACE IN MY
HEAD FOR A YEAR AND A HALF AND A LOT OF AMERICANS' HEADS, I KIND
OF THINK I KNOW-- I CAN'T SWEAR BUT PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE A CERTAIN
REACTION TO TELL HIM TO MAYBE BE QUIET, TO SHUT UP AFTER NOVEMBER
-- >> BUT HE DOESN'T GENERALLY
RESPOND TO THOSE REQUESTS.
>> PEOPLE ARE SO EXHAUSTED BY THIS ELECTION, THOUGH, AND
USUALLY-- LOOK, EVEN AL GORE, JOHN KERRY, MITT ROMNEY, WHO ALL
LOST THE ELECTIONS BY RELATIVELY NARROW MARGINS, PROBABLY
NARROWER THAN TRUMP DID, THEY STOOD DOWN AND PEOPLE DIDN'T
WANT TO HEAR FROM THEM IN ANY WAY BUT A GRACIOUS WAY.
TRUMP HAS 35% OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL BELIEVE EVERYTHING HE
SAYS.
BUT PEOPLE DO GET SICK AND TIRED OF HEARING THE SAME ACT AGAIN
AND AGAIN AND AGAIN.
>> Stephen: ARE THERE ANY STATE OUT THERE THAT YOU'RE
LOOKING AT, THAT ARE SORT OFI SURPRISE, STORIES YOU WOULDN'T
EXPECT TO A STATE-BY-STATE BASIS?
>> RIGHT NOW WE'RE LOOKING AT A LOT OF TRADITIONALLY RED STATES
LIKE TEXAS AND ARIZONA.
THOSE STATES ARE ACTUALLY CLOSER THAN PENNSYLVANIA OR COLORADO
RIGHT NOW.
IT'S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU'RE DOWN BY SEVEN POINT.
IT KIND OF SWINGS PRETTY UNIFORMLY.
BELIEVE IT OR NOT, TRUMP IS UNDERPERFORMING AMONG THE
TRADITIONAL G.O.P. SUBURBAN BASE.
HE GETS SOME OF THEM, BUT IF YOU ONLY GET 80% OF REPUBLICAN
VOTERS IN A COUNTRY WHERE YOU USUALLY GET 92%, THEN THAT MEANS
YOU CAN LOSE A STATE LIKE ARIZONA, FOR EXAMPLE.
>> Stephen: ALL RIGHT, WELL, THANKS FOR GIVING US THE0
INFORMATION.
WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS NOVEMBER 8.
THANKS ARE THE INFORMATION.
FOR MORE ELECTION COVERAGE, VISIT fivethirtyeight.com.
NATE SILVER, EVERYBODY!
WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.