Ha! Forget about dragons Westeros,
because the biggest threat headed your way
is me.
*fire, screams of pain and terror*
*Opening theme*
Hello Internet, welcome to Film Theory
where, just like a Lannister always
pays his debts,
a MatPat always delivers his theories.
In the crazy, ever changing, world of Game of Thrones
at least there are a few things
you can always count on.
Winter is always coming,
The Targaryens always have great hair,
and no one likes Dorne.
seriously. *sounds of comments appearing* NOBODY likes Dorne.
But if there's one thing I've learnt about this series
it's that you can't actually rely on anything.
George R. R. Martin's love of throwing
fantasy tropes out the window
like a young Bran Stark
means that there is no assumption that you can count on.
Which is why i'm so excited about this episode
as I finally get to target the family
that we all think we know, the Targaryens.
In particular I've had my eye on the Mad King
for a long time now
and today we're going to talk about just how mad he is.
Quick warning though, a light sprinkling of spoilers ahead
so I pray to the Old Gods that you're all caught up.
Now, season 6 of the series was the first
we've gotten a look at the most famous
Targaryen ancestor, Aerys the second,
the Mad King himself.
mmh, and what a looker he is.
Now there are all kinds of theories going around
about the Mad King and there are
plenty of upcoming Film Theories about the fella.
But today I'm less interested in history
and more interested in whether history
is going to repeat itself.
Because for as excited as we all are
for Westeros to get rekt by Dany and her armies,
Dothraki hoards, ships and dragons
the biggest twist in her story may yet be coming.
and sadly, nothing Sir Friend-Zone does
will be able to stop it.
Nope. Dany may have a ticking bomb inside of her.
Remember, the most famous family genes in
the whole series, the Targaryens,
i.e. the genes that let you walk through fire,
talk to dragons,
and make sure you always look
a Pantene Pro-V model
also tend to lead to rulers who
are violent, deranged and just weird.
According to Game of Thrones cannon
Aerys the second was perfectly sane in his 20's
showing no signs he'd gotten the insane Targaryen gene
only to develop his homicidal crazies a little bit later in life.
after becoming King.
So is it just a matter of time for Daenerys as well?
Can science help us predict whether Dany is
destined to follow in her fathers footsteps?
I intend to find out.
To figure it out, we need to take a look
at the Targaryen family tree
and boy is it a doozy!
Now in this show I usually try to stick
to the lore from the TV show only, since
at this point the two have taken different story arcs.
For this one we needed to call out the big guns
to piece together Daenerys' genetic situation
and fully understand exactly what she's inheriting.
Which means the lesson of todays episode
is the wonderful world of
Inbreeding [Children cheer]
and when I say 'wonderful'
i mean pretty weird.
like, research for this episode was very uncomfortable
But to diagnose her likely-hood of
becoming the Mad Queen of Westeros,
we need to understand what happens
when related individuals do the horizontal mambo
and genetically why so many societies have rules
against marrying into your own family
other than the obvious creep factor
which again is pretty darn high
#love is love... most of the time.
Now before Darwin and genetics,
people did know that inbreeding produced kids
that had physical and mental disabilities
who tended to die younger
or frankly didn't survive at all.
But the reasons behind that have to do with
genetic science that came out in the 1800's
specifically, recessive genes and genetic mutation
and basically, how many are lurking
under the surface of our own genes everyday.
So if you didn't sleep through 7th grade science
hopefully you know that every person in the world
has two copies of all their genes
one you inherit from your mum
and the other from your dad.
In textbooks you see them sitting together
in these cute little pairs
all nice and getting along
But the story in your cells is a whole lot different.
One of the biggest reasons we have two copies
of genes from two parents
is to cover up mutations and
alternate forms of genes in the genome
and what Mr Foster didn't tell me in 7th grade science
is that there are actually tons of these genetic mistakes
inside all of us.
So if Gene 1 from your dad doesn't quite
have its act together
the one on the allele you got from your mum
can cover its tracks
making sure you still produce everything that you need
like blood cells and bones
and Kylie Jenner duck lips.
Sometimes the traits these genes are for
are just unimportant like handedness
or the ability to taste certain bitter chemicals.
But then there are other genes that you definitely
want to have a backup for.
Diseases like Sickle Cell Anaemia and Cystic Fibrosis
are two of the most famous
autosomal recessive diseases, but there are
literally hundreds more
most of which you don't really hear too much about
because they're pretty darn rare
and the reason they're rare is that
most people have a backup set of genes
that help them minimise the effects of these disorders.
Notice though that I said 'most'
If you don't have a backup set of genes
then boy-howdy you're in trouble
which brings us to Dany and her family history
of inbreeding
Inbreeding is actually really complicated
and what we're talking about here
just scratches the surface.
Studying inbreeding is basically about
how many genes get recycled directly
from generation to generation.
To do that, population specialists use what is known as
the coefficient of inbreeding.
gah, its like they make coefficients for
literally anything these days.
Coefficient of when winter is coming.
Coefficient of extraneous boob shots in Game of Thrones.
But a coefficient of inbreeding measures how many
identical copies of a gene they have
because it came from the same ancestor.
In other words, it helps us understand
how much of Daenerys' DNA is the exact same
as the Mad Kings because it came directly from him
and his inbreeding ancestors.
This, in turn, ought to give us a good indication
of whether we can expect Daenerys
to follow in the footsteps of his,
lets just say 'less than sane' ruling practices.
Now, the equation for calculating
the inbreeding coefficient for any person is...
so.. right.
Yeah, I'm gonna assume you don't want me to
walk through every variable on that one
so instead lets use the power of Google
to see what the inbreeding coefficient would be
for the children of two siblings.
Using Google, and some weird research
into dairy cow breeding,
we can find that the sibling pairings will
will result in offspring that share 50%
of their genes with their grandparents
and have an inbreeding coefficient of 25%
Meaning that they have a 25% chance of
being effected by those nasty
recessive gene diseases we talked about.
And the numbers are all well and good
but to put it in perspective lets look at
a real world example first.
King Tutankhamun, known by his peeps as King Tut,
is one of the most famous cases
of real world inbreeding
since his parents were actually brother and sister.
He's portrayed in Egyptian mythology as
this powerful sun god but in reality
he was really tiny,
likely sick his whole life,
had a congenital clubfoot,
couldn't produce any living children,
and died at age 19.
Plus, he's the only child from his parents,
that we know, who actually survived.
So what happened here?
Well, his grandparents weren't inbred.
so first of a big pat on the back to those guys
for finding love in all the right places
[awkward, solo clapping]
His parents though, not so much
they were siblings, meaning that they already
share 50% of the same DNA
just by being closely related.
now, they would have been fine
if they had gone on to have kids with other people
but they decided to keep it all in the family
meaning that any kid they had would be inbred
like, Really inbred.
When they had King Tut it meant that he had a
25% inbreeding coefficient because he's the product
of two siblings
versus say, a ZERO% coefficient if his parents
weren't actually related.
It also means that he shares 50% of his genes
with his grandparents
where he normally would only share 25%
of his genes with them under normal circumstances.
As a result, his odds of getting any one of those
rare genetic diseases is now
as high as one in four.
And across so many possible disorders
chances are you're going to end up with at least
a few of the biggies.
and thats the thing about the genetics of inbreeding
its all about percent chances
and playing the odds.
Kind of like Vegas but with your genes
Sure, you can definitely get lucky every once and a while
if having a club foot and dying by 19 is considered lucky,
but, statistically speaking, serious genetic mutations
become common as soon as you get to
a coefficient of inbreeding thats 10% or higher.
So what does this mean for Daenerys?
Well as you go through more and more
generations of inbreeding
the problems get worse and worse really fast
and say what you will about the Targeryens
but they were prolific inbreeders.
A little examination of that massive family tree
shows that you can go back 19 generations
from Daenerys and 12 of them have
sibling-sibling inbreeding involved.
Talk about your brotherly love!
actually don't talk about that, its gross
then again I'm still talking about it so..
Welcome to Film Theory ladies and gentlemen
So ok, lets give her the absolute biggest benefit of the doubt
and only go back three generations
to the last time there was any
ANY sort of out-breeding in the Targaryen line
Aegon 'The Unlikely'
Unlikely to survive based on the family's
incestuous history that is! ba-doom ching
Aegon 'The Unlikely' managed to marry Black Betha
a real, live non-Targaryen
oh, but okay sure. now its a race thing?
Seriously though, Black Betha's just her name
Now, Aegon the Unlikely also comes from inbreeding
but by marrying Betha and outcrossing
He effectively resets the Targaryen inbreeding
coefficient to zero.
According to the lore, Aegon didn't believe in inbreeding
but two of his kids fell in love and got married
bringing their kids, including Mad King Aerys the second
Up to that 25% inbreeding coefficient.
As a result, it would be incredibly unlikely
that either Aerys or his sister
would live long enough to grow up
and they would almost certainly have
no chance of having viable kids.
An issue known as Inbreeding Depression.
No, thats not the feeling you get when your sister
starts having feelings for your first cousin.
Thats actually when most populations become sterile
after one or two generations of close inbreeding
because their DNA is simply too damaged
to even create a baby.
But most importantly to us, the risk of Aerys having
Alzheimer's and Dementia, diseases that specifically
show up later in life, happen at much higher rates
in inbred populations.
More recessive genes mean more genes associated
Dementia and Alzheimers get turned on
leading to the diseases showing up more often
and more severely.
It also shows up earlier in life because inbreeding
causes the body to literally age faster
since its DNA is too fragile and literally
more likely to just break apart.
If you need a real life example,
just look at Maria of Portugal in the 1700's
whos life has some pretty bizarre similarities
to our favourite mad king.
The product of royal inbreeding,
she started off as a strong, decisive ruler early in life
until she started having delirious episodes
and developing dementia.
Her condition got worse after the death
of her husband and son
and she lived the rest of her life in her own mind.
Those around her reported constantly hearing
her paranoid shrieking and screaming.
As she was going mad, her kingdom was taken over
and the whole Portuguese royal family at the time
was forced to flee across the ocean to Brazil in 1801.
Historically, she's been refered to as the Mad Queen.
So what are Daenerys' odds of sharing the same fate
as her father and Maria of Portugal?
How do I put this lightly?
Really REALLY freaking high! Preposterously high!
Daenerys has 75% of her genes in common with
Viserys and her father Aerys the second
Seventy-five percent!
That means that she's incredibly likely to
share the exact same fate as him.
When we hear Tyrion tell her she's starting to
sound a lot like her father
"You once told me you knew what your father was"
"Did you know his plans for Kings Landing when"
"the Lannister armies were at his gates?"
-"This is entirely different"
"You're talking about destroying cities, it's not entirely different"
It's because she literally is her father
three fourths of her, is her father
Physically, mentally, genetically
her fate is pretty well sealed
Man, it brings new meaning to
the idea of 'Daddy's little girl'
Now if you carry this out to its logical conclusion
it also has some serious implications for
her position as Queen.
The reason her first son died before he was born?
We think it was magic
We assume it was magic
But the much more likely explanation is that
she's too inbred to produce a living heir.
Based on genetics its practically impossible for her
to have a living offspring.
and forget about marrying her.
Even if she makes it back to Westeros
and reclaims the Iron Throne for her family
statistically its almost impossible that she could
extend her own family tree.
There is literally no point in her becoming Queen
because there's so little chance that there
there will be anyone there to take it on after her.
well i guess there's always Cersei.
But if all this seems a bit extreme
if applying science to Game of Thrones seems
a bit absurd, you don't have to take my word for it.
Instead, take George R. R. Martin's word.
In the epilogue of A Dance With Dragons
Mace Tyrell declares that Daenerys is quote:
"As mad as her father"
Just a throw away line?
or foreshadowing at whats to come once Daenerys
takes over Westeros?
We'll have to wait and see.
Until then though, remember
Its just a theory.
A FILM THEORY
Aaand... CUT
Well, time to embarrass myself
If you go way back to the earliest videos
on the Game Theorist channel then you'll see
that i used to do myself a bit of singing back in the day.
"Is that a wish for.."
I was so cute and young then
Well in honour of this Game of Thrones theory
I partnered up with one of the best musicians on YouTube
a man by the name of Peter Hollens
and got to work out with him as Bran Stark
in his rendition of the Game of Thrones theme song.
So please, do me a favour and click here to rock out
with me to one of the catchiest
opening theme songs to a TV show EVER
He got me this really awesome costume and everything
I felt SO legit
Fair warning, you'll have it caught in your head
the rest of the afternoon.
Or if you'd like another Game of Thrones theory
check out this one with my prediction
on how Ser Jorah will be the hero of Westeros
Seriously, the guy's still kicking around
he has a big role to play in the events next season
For all you DHMIS fans, don't worry
just need a little more time in the edit.
that one's coming out next week.
For all you Doctor Who fans meanwhile...
you might be waiting just a little bit longer
So pass the time by listening to the Game of Thrones
theme song over and over again
Click there!
[A capella Game of Thrones Theme]