He isn’t a well-known leader and he doesn’t run a state, so much as a relatively small
country.
And officially he isn’t even that country’s top leader.
Despite all this, on June 2nd 2019, the New York Times published a report declaring Mohammed
bin Zayed as the world's most powerful political leader in the Arab world.
He even ranks above the new de facto Saudi Arabian leader, Mohammed bin Salman, of whom
we’ve already spoken here on VISUALPOLITIK.
I’ll leave some links to videos in the description.
After the New York Times report was published, we asked ourselves a few questions:
Who exactly is Mohammed bin Zayed?
What are the keys to his power?
Is he really the most powerful Arab political leader in the world?
Listen up.
(INTRO)
Mohammed bin Zayed is the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, the richest and most powerful emirate
of the United Arab Emirates.
He is also the deputy supreme commander of the Emirates’ armed forces and the President
of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council, that is, the President of the Abu Dhabi government.
Quite a feat.
And it’s his political abilities along with the poor health of his older brother, Sheikh
Khalifa bin Zayed, that have made him Abu Dhabi’s de facto leader and by extension
the leader of all the United Arab Emirates.
As many of you know, the United Arab Emirates is a small country, located in the Persian
Gulf and similar in size to Panama or South Carolina.
We’re talking about a country made up of seven different emirates out of which the
two best known by far are Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
In fact, even though this country is made up of seven emirates, the truth is that, at
the political level, Abu Dhabi is by far the most important emirate, why?
We’ll see that later in this video, but we can already give you quite a weighty reason:
Abu Dhabi holds more than 90% of all of the Arab Emirates oil reserves.
But for now, let's go back to Mohammed bin Zayed.
This character was born in 1961 and was the third son of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan, the
first president of the United Arab Emirates.
From a young age he focused his career on the army, where he became an air force pilot.
And the armed forces is where he also started his political career.
In 1991, just after Saddam Hussein initiated Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, the then Emirati
air forces commander landed in Washington with a mission:
To buy all possible military equipment.
Hellfire missiles, Apache helicopters, F16 planes.
They wanted the full package.
From that moment on, Mohammed bin Zayed became one of Washington's closest allies, not only
within the Arab countries but on the entire planet.
Because we’re talking about a political leader who over the years has become one of
the icons of reform and openness in the Arab world.
Under his management, Abu Dhabi has taken pioneering steps, both in Dubai’s economic
and civil matters.
And on some issues, they went even further.
Perhaps the best proof of this is the Pope’s own visit to the Emirates, which we recently
covered here on VISUALPOLITIK.
However, even though he was leading a reform program that has made the Emirates perhaps
the most open and prosperous country in the Arab world, Mohammed bin Zayed also fiercely
supports an idea that can sound, at the very least, controversial: That the Arab world
isn’t ready for democracy right now.
Yes, you heard that correctly.
According to bin Zayed, openness in the Arab world can only come about to those nations
led by authoritarian regimes.
Promoting democracy would only feed fundamentalist groups that would end up winning the elections.
It’s an idea that is actively defended and has significantly shaped the Emirates’ external
relations in recent years.
But, having said this, I think we now have to turn to the key question of this video:
Where does this character fit in and how much power does he really have?
Let's examine the three main areas that form the foundations of his power.
Listen up.
(1.
THE POWER OF THE PORTFOLIO)
I don't think anyone will find it strange if I say that money has always been one of
the most important elements in power.
Well, if Arab countries have been famous for anything, it has been for their conspicuous
consumption.
They are no strangers to spending indecent amounts of money on all kinds of things, whims
or projects that led nowhere, right?
Well, in this case, besides spending a lot of money on all kinds of public projects,
what the Emirates have also done has been to save and invest a good part of their money
all over the planet.
To the point that today, Mohammed bin Zayed has one of the fullest portfolios we can imagine
at his disposal.
But the question is, exactly how much money do the Emirates and Abu Dhabi have saved in
their sovereign wealth funds?
How much are we really talking about?
For those who don’t know, a sovereign fund is an investment fund that a government creates
to invest its savings in assets to generate profitability.
Basically, it’s like any saver’s investment fund.
Well, according to the latest estimates, the United Arab Emirates’ sovereign funds have
accumulated investments worth more than 1.3 trillion dollars.
Out of this amount, just over 900 billion dollars are concentrated in Abu Dhabi’s
two main sovereign wealth funds:
Abu Dhabi’s investment authority controls almost 700 billion, making it the third largest
sovereign fund in the world
(CHART)
And Mubadala’s fund has just over 220 billion US dollars.
We’re talking about a huge fortune.
More than 900 billion saved by the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and invested throughout the world
in stocks, debts, buildings, highways, ports, airports, banks, hospitals, hotels, factories,
mines, even ice cream parlors... everything.
And that explains why you see news stories like these:
(AUDIO: Abu Dhabi pays Abertis 495 million for 20% of its Chilean subsidiary.
El País)
(AUDIO: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority to invest $50 billion into India.
One of the largest sovereign funds in the world, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
will $50 billion into India, especially into infrastructure and food processing capacity.
The Times of India)
But let’s be careful here, because power doesn’t only consist of having a full portfolio
but also of controlling assets and companies of all kinds throughout the entire planet
and to have a cashflow that is very, very coveted by most governments.
Who doesn’t want a few billion invested in their country?
That’s pure diplomacy.
In any case there’s a detail we cannot skip.
You see, the Emirate of Abu Dhabi only has a population of 2.7 million people, out of
which just over half a million have Emirati nationality.
That is, the Emirate of Abu Dhabi’s savings alone in its two main sovereign funds amounts
to more than 340 thousand dollars per inhabitant and more than 1.6 million per citizen of Abu
Dhabi with Emirati nationality.
1.6 million dollars.
They’ve been saving since 1976.
And even though they’re sitting on such a large amount of money, they take the fact
that the government doesn’t have a public deficit very seriously.
(AUDIO: Abu Dhabi to see a budget surplus in 2019 thanks to public consolidation efforts.
Oxford Business Group)
But that isn’t the only key to Mohammed bin Zayed's power.
(2.
THE POWER OF FORCE)
This is perhaps the Emirates’ least known aspect, but in recent years this small country
has earned itself the nickname “little Sparta”.
The United Arab Emirates army is very small, it has just over 60,000 soldiers.
But in the last two decades, under Mohammed bin Zayed’s command along with a lot of
experts among whom is the former US secretary of defense, Jim Mattis, this army has been
restructured around one simple idea:
To be a small but very well equipped, agile and well-trained army.
To achieve this, the Emirates’ military budget exceeds 20 billion dollars every year.
This has allowed them to buy all kinds of foreign equipment:
70 F-16 updated with the latest technology; more 70 Mirage; 30 apaches, 19 chinook, more
than 400 Leclerc tanks, 76 scorpions, thousands of armored vehicles of all kinds, dozens of
drones, the patriot missile system... they even bought the crown jewel, the THAAD missile
system, one of the most modern systems in the United States.
The same one that the US power deployed in South Korea, causing a huge confrontation
with China.
And this is just the beginning, for example they are now looking at the F-35.
In fact, after Saudi Arabia, Emirates is the second largest buyer of technology and military
equipment from the United States.
But, if the Arab armies have traditionally been known for something, it has been for
spending a lot of money on equipment, and when the time comes, not really taking advantage
of it.
That’s why another of Mohammed bin Zayed’s priorities has been to ensure that the Emirati
army is well trained.
And how do you think they went about it?
Well, in addition to paying for all kinds of training courses abroad, the Emirati army
has committed itself to going into combat in the last few years, especially hand in
hand with the United States itself.
You heard that right.
Since 2003, Emirates has deployed elite troops in Afghanistan, sent troops to Somalia to
combat piracy and after the United States, it has been the country that has carried out
the most air missions against the Islamic State.
Always hand in hand with the United States.
And not only that, they have also recently intervened, on their own, in Libya, in northern
Sinai, in Egypt and massively in Yemen.
Of course, they’ve also hired lots of experts from around the world, so much so that some
units are even under the command of foreign officers.
In other words, they have contracted their own officers.
This is the case, for example, of General Toumajan (Tumeijan), a former lieutenant colonel
of the United States Army who is now in command of the Emirati helicopter division; or Australian
Mike Hindmarsh, who runs the Presidential Guard.
The result is that today the Emirati army is not only considered one of the best equipped
armies but also the best trained one throughout the region.
Come on, they’re catching up with Israel, a country from which they’re currently buying
technology.
And that's not all.
in another move to gain autonomy, the Emirati authorities have reinstated the mandatory
military service and have invested a lot of money to develop a full national weapons industry.
A military industry of its own.
Of course, always hand-in-hand with large multinationals and their technology.
And the truth is that it’s working.
There are currently almost 200 Emirati defense companies manufacturing all kinds of equipment:
Armored vehicles, guided missiles, drones, light airplanes...
All manufactured in the Emirates.
Now they are even trying to develop their own propeller bomber to operate at low altitude
on counterinsurgency missions.
But wait, there’s more.
Emirates has opened military bases in places like Yemen, Eritrea and Somaliland – which
is unprecedented – and has prepared to operate alongside mercenary armies.
Elite mercenaries led by Erik Prince, the founder and owner of the Blackwater company,
which complement the capabilities of their own army.
(Emirates Secretly Sends Colombian Mercenaries to Yemen Fight.
NYT)
In short, this is the change that is taking place in the Emirati army and which has earned
them the name “little Sparta”.
All by the hand of our central character.
But this isn't his only weapon
(3.
GEOSTRATEGY IN FORCE)
With proven reserves of more than 97 billion barrels, the Emirates has the seventh largest
conventional oil reserve on the planet under its own subsoil.
They are currently producing about 3 million barrels per day and expect to reach four million
by 2020 and five million by 2030.
That is a lot, a lot of oil.
So with all that oil and all the money we’ve seen, Mohammed bin Zayed has launched a diplomatic
career across the planet that has multiplied this small country’s international influence
in recent years.
India, Indonesia, Ethiopia... and of course the United States.
His relations with the Trump administration are formidable.
The truth is that with such assets under their belts, no door remains closed.
And, if we add to all this the fact that the Emirates has become an important financial,
commercial, logistic and even tourist center in the last two decades and that this man,
Mohammed bin Zayed, is practically leading everything, it doesn’t seem crazy to state
that, today, he is the most powerful Arab political leader in the world.
Of course, being the most powerful Arab doesn’t mean it’s all smooth sailing.
Not at all.
Qatar’s blockade has been a resounding failure.
But that is something we covered in a past video.
So I
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