Hey guys, this is Alex. Thanks for clicking, and welcome to this lesson on speculation
in the present. Now, some of these words you might be familiar with already, and you might
be familiar with using them for talking about obligation. Today, we're talking about speculation.
So that means trying to guess about a certain situation in the present. So, if you are almost
certain of something, you're almost positive that something is true in the present, there
are some expressions that we use all the time. So, if you're almost certain, we have three
sentences here. "He must be at work." So again, if somebody asks you, "Well, where is John
today?" And you look at your watch, and you see that it's 10 o'clock, you know that John
usually works at 10 o'clock, is at work at 10 o'clock, you would say, "Well, he must
be at work." You think very, very strongly that he is at work, so you say, "Well, he
must be at work." Okay? So we can use "must" to speculate very, very strongly. We can also
use "has got to." So, "She has got to be sleeping." So again, maybe it's 7 o'clock in the morning,
you know that your friend, Mary, doesn't wake up until 7.30. So, if someone asks you, "Well,
where is Mary?" You look at your watch, "Oh, she's got to be sleeping. She has got to be
sleeping right now." You're almost certain. Okay? "Has got to be sleeping." And "She has
to be babysitting." Again, you know that your friend usually babysits on Saturdays. It is
Saturday today, and your friends ask you, "Well, where is she?" You say, "Well, this
time, usually she's babysitting, so I think, well, she has to be babysitting." I'm almost
certain that she's babysitting. Okay? Now, in terms of formality, most of the time, you're
gonna use this in the spoken word, but you're going to contract it. So, as a native speaker,
I would say this as, "She's gotta be sleeping." Okay? So, most of the time, we would speak
it like this, "She's gotta be." And again, it's not, "She is got to be." In spoken word,
"She's gotta be" means, "She has got to be sleeping." Okay? Now, if you are less certain
of something, we have three words, three expressions that we use, and they are, I'm sure you're
familiar with them already, "might, may, and could." "Might, may, and could." So again,
if you're not as certain of something, you're about 50% sure of something, you're guessing
about something or someone happening, you can use "might, may, or could." So, the first
sentence, "They might be watching TV." So, again, where are our friends, or where are
our brothers and sisters? "Oh, they might be watching TV." That's a possibility. So,
with these expressions, you are saying that something is a possibility. There is a chance
that this is true. So, I think, "You may be 22." If someone says, "Guess my age. How old
am I?" You'd say, "You might be, you may be, you could be 22." Okay? And finally, "Marcus
could be the best player on the team." So, here, you're trying to guess, okay, who is
the best player on this team? Football team, soccer team, hockey team, doesn't matter.
And I think, you look at Marcus, and you say, "I think Marcus could be the best player on
the team." I think there's a good chance. So, you're speculating, okay? If you want
to make a negative speculation, most of the time, you just put "not" in front of these
expressions. So, instead of saying, "He must be at work," you would say, "He must not be
at work." Okay? For "has got to," not really able to put a "not" here, right? So, "She
has not got to be sleeping." "She hasn't got to be sleeping." No. "Has to" doesn't really
work either. "She not has to." "She has not to." "She has to not be babysitting." That's
a possibility, okay? Not very common to say that, though. In this situation, not, not,
not after these, okay? And that's it. So, if you want to speculate in the future, sorry,
in the present, in the future when you're using your English, but speculating about
the present, if you're almost certain of something, "must," "has got to," "has to." If you are
less certain, 50% sure, "might," "may," "could." Okay? If you want to test your understanding
of this, check out the quiz at the bottom of this video on www.engvid.com. Thanks, guys.
Take care, and good luck.