Australian airline Qantas launched its ambitious Project Sunrise in 2017, with the goal of
offering commercial passenger flights between Australia’s largest cities and London and
New York. Test flights began in 2019, but the pandemic has delayed the launch of services.
Qantas and other airlines remain confident in the ultra-long-haul business model, but…
What are the challenges in making it work? And is there a market to support it?
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In 2019, Qantas drew attention when it operated its first non-stop Boeing 787 flight from
London to Sydney. At just over 17,000 kilometers, this significantly exceeded Qantas’ current
longest route, from Perth to London, at 14,500 kilometers – and the world’s longest flight,
a Singapore Airlines flight from Singapore to New York at 15,358 kilometers.
These 18-20, or more, -hour flights are classified as ultra-long-haul. And with the increasing
capabilities and efficiency of aircraft, it is an area we are likely to see much more
development in. Extremely long flights, though, are not new.
There are plenty of examples of long-duration flights before the introduction of jets (although
distances covered now are much greater). In fact, Qantas holds the record for the longest
commercial flight route. In the early days of aviation, it flew an epic 32 hours nine
minutes from Perth to Ceylon in Sri Lanka with a Consolidated Catalina flying boat.
And TWA operated the Lockheed Constellation from London to San Francisco, with a flight
time of over 23 hours.
But why is Qantas now looking at ultra-long-haul flights? To reach key cities in Europe and
the US, Qantas passengers currently need to fly with stops or take several flights. Direct
non-stop flights would be a great bonus – and something the airline hopes customers will
pay for. In August 2017, Qantas launched Project Sunrise,
with the aim of flying non-stop from Australia (including the eastern cities of Sydney, Melbourne,
and Brisbane) to cities such as London, Paris, and New York. With the project came a request
to both Boeing and Airbus to develop an aircraft that could meet this requirement.
Qantas wanted an aircraft capable of direct flights, with a four-class configuration and
capacity of around 300 passengers. At present, Boeing’s proposal is based on the 777-8
and Airbus’ on the A350-1000. Test flights in 2019 took place using a Boeing
787-9 to both New York and London. Towards the end of 2019, though, Qantas selected
the A350-1000 as its preferred option for these flights. This will be modified with
additional fuel storage and increased maximum take-off weight.
According to Qantas, the engines were a significant factor in the decision, with positive experiences
operating the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines for two years previously. Before the pandemic,
it was just about to place an order for 12 aircraft, but this is now on hold for the
foreseeable future.
Even with the slowdown in 2020 and now into 2021, Qantas’ remained bullish through late
2020 about its ambitious plans for Project Sunrise. But in February 2021, the airline
confirmed that flights would be delayed until at least 2024. CEO Alan Joyce said…
“We still want to revisit it at the end of [20]21, with the potential of [introducing
scheduled Project Sunrise flights] in [20]24, and onwards.“
However, closed borders remain the biggest challenge to launching longer flights. Until
vaccination rates in Australia pick up and there is confidence in borders opening and
staying open, long-haul flying will continue to suffer.
Financial pressure at Qantas is also a factor. With continuing uncertainty over when international
flying will resume, the airline sensibly does not want to be spending and committing to
a new project.
Looking beyond the pandemic, though, the case for Project Sunrise and ultra-long-haul flying
in general remains strong. The main argument for such long flights is,
of course, the appeal to passengers. Qantas expects passengers would be willing to pay
for such long but direct flights to avoid a stop en route. Currently, the airline’s
flights to London or the US east coast cities require stops in Singapore or the west coast
cities (with the exception of London to Perth flights). There are also, of course, plenty
of connecting itineraries possible with other airlines.
Ultimately, the success of such long point-to-point flights will be very route-specific. Other
airlines, though, challenge their popularity. In an interview with Simple Flying, Qatar
Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker explained, for example, how he didn’t see Singapore Airlines’
direct flights to New York as a threat. After the route started, passenger volume remained
stable on connecting routes, and in his view, many passengers prefer the option of breaking
up the journey. Coming out of the pandemic, it seems likely
this business case will be even stronger. There is built-up passenger demand for flights,
from business, leisure, and VFR passengers, even on the longest routes.
And with travel restrictions likely to remain in place for some time and subject to continuous
changes, direct flights will be more attractive to passengers. Minimizing transit points and
layovers will lessen the paperwork and tests required and reduce passengers’ exposure
and chances of coming into contact with the virus. A recent study for the Journal of Air
Transport Management supported this, predicting higher seat load factors and yields on ultra-long-haul
routes post-COVID.
However, there remain challenges to ultra-long-haul flights.
While the technical capability of aircraft is hopefully sorted, that is not the only
issue with scheduling such long flights. For routes to work commercially for Qantas (and
other airlines that look at such long routes), there are plenty of other considerations.
Some of the main ones include: Oil prices
Fuel prices remain a major factor in long-haul flying. The price of oil has fallen during
the pandemic and remains low in 2021. But rising prices have taken their toll on airlines
in the past. The increase in price in the years after the launch of the four-engine
A380, for example, was a significant factor in its decline.
Airlines will minimize risk to some extent through price hedging. And the increased efficiency
of the A350 will help in the event of price rises – at least in comparison to fuel-thirsty
quadjets.
Passenger (and crew) comfort While the business case is based on passengers
wanting the convenience of direct flights, will they really want to spend 20 or more
hours in their seats? Unlike Singapore Airlines with its A350ULR, Qantas will be operating
all four cabins and not just a business-class heavy configuration.
Some early ideas from Qantas (based on passengers input) included bunk beds, gyms, work and
café spaces, and even a creche. But as reality hit, the airlines dropped these. Some simpler
ideas, such as better noise-canceling headsets and virtual reality headsets, are more likely
to be retained. Cabins will be changed, though – hopefully,
to include more space away from the seats for stretching or relaxation. But new designs
have not yet been released. Getting economy right will obviously be key to making it work
for passengers – many would prefer to make a stop than sit in a standard cramped economy
cabin for that long. Qantas’ Media and Communications chief, Amanda Bolger, explained this, saying:
“It will be an entirely new cabin design for each class, a new opportunity to rethink
the ideal cabin environment based on the ultra-long-haul nature of the Project Sunrise flights.”
Passengers and crew on the test flights have been monitored and subject to various experiments,
with the aim of improving cabin experience. We have seen images of them stretching and
being guided through yoga sessions, for example. There has also been plenty of experimentation
with menus and appropriate catering. But... with 300 passengers onboard, how much
space will there be for group stretching and yoga sessions?
Crew conditions Pay and work conditions for crew is another
consideration in the business case. Scheduling crew for 20-hour flights comes with plenty
of challenges. Qantas has said it does not want to use multiple crews for the flights.
Pilots started negotiations in 2019 unhappy with previous conditions for direct Perth
to London flights (amongst other concerns, they were not compensated for night flying
as on other routes). Qantas, at one point, was preparing a fallback plan where it would
hire crew through a separate employment entity. In March 2020, though, the airline reached
an agreement with pilots over pay and work conditions. The details of this haven’t
been revealed, but 85% of pilots agreed to the conditions.
If the plan remains on track, these 20-hour flights could be operational in a few years.
Key to passenger adoption will be the price and the onboard facilities.
Are you excited to see these ultra-long-haul flights coming? How do you think Qantas should
approach it? Let us know your thoughts
in the comments.